Crypto end of year report: what to expect in 2024
Cryptocurrencies have undergone a long term bear market and sentiment reset across the board -very much like traditional stock markets-, between the broad market top in December 2021 and the bottom in December 2022. We now have fertile ground for trends, as markets endure a ‘wall of worry, which keeps the vast majority of market participants from deploying capital in a meaningful way.
Most traders were shaken out at the depths of hell, during last year, and those who survived have been selling on the way up as they reached break even or reasonable levels where they didn’t feel so bad for cutting losses from escalating further.
People had fomo'd in after the initial rally in the weekly timeframe, into the 'banking crisis' when SIVB went under, those traders capitulated on a sideways wash out that took half a year over time, selling their coins to strong hands who accumulated them before the trend turned up again during October 2023:
In the meantime savvy long term participants have been accumulating positions in the most interesting tokens, deploying liquidity in the most profitable and promising pools and participating from network security via staking in proof of stake networks. Decentralized exchanges have gained a ton of ground and are now both secure and liquid enough for everyday use.
The prospect of a spot ETF and the likely deluge of institutional and tradfi demand that brings with it has been a salient point, which is about to materialize. Surprisingly, most traders expect some kind of sell the news situation after the event, or some delay or rejection causing disappointment.
The fact this is the prevailing sentiment is not a coincidence: most people have missed out on the rally from the bottom, or sold too early, or capitulated at the bottom, and still refuse to buy.
It takes a long time for people to give up from trying to buy at their exit, or on a too deep to be realistic and feasible dip on the way up…this is the ‘wall of worry’ pattern. By the time people warm up to the idea of pulling the trigger and paying up to not miss out, the market will face a significant correction or even a trend reversal in the mid or maybe even long term.
For that reason, it is important to be aware of what the technical levels traders wish to buy at are, it gives us a sense of a ‘trailing stop’ below the market where prices shouldn’t go if the market is in strong hands and not under distribution AFTER the long term top. (a pattern well documented in Jesse Livermore’s autobiographical work: ‘Reminiscences of a stocks operator’ which I highly recommend you read ASAP if you haven’t and if you did, re-read it. It’s highly relevant now and a great tool to aid us in navigating market trends)
Currently everyone is eyeing the 32k region for a correction to buy in, which roughly coincides with the level where a long term trend signal triggered in monthly and quarterly scale, right after price squeezed shorts from 28k onwards, and where price accelerated to the upside thereafter, leaving everyone behind…naturally, this level won’t be tested, with a substantial amount of confidence on this statement given the fundamental and technical outlook my thesis is based on.
If you have yet to buy a position in Bitcoin and/or any cryptocurrency project, don’t waste the opportunity offered by the close of the quarter and the year, and in some cases, the week, as many bullish signals exist in various coins, and in many cases, these happen to be very high reward to risk trades in very interesting projects, from a fundamental standpoint.
Here’s to a happy new year!
I hope everyone can have a nice and joyful time with their loved ones, as we leave this tumultuous 2023 behind, and make way for more prosperous and happy times for the world during 2024 and 2025.
Stay safe out and there and make sure to check out my signature out if you found this post valuable and interesting.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Most traders were shaken out at the depths of hell, during last year, and those who survived have been selling on the way up as they reached break even or reasonable levels where they didn’t feel so bad for cutting losses from escalating further.
People had fomo'd in after the initial rally in the weekly timeframe, into the 'banking crisis' when SIVB went under, those traders capitulated on a sideways wash out that took half a year over time, selling their coins to strong hands who accumulated them before the trend turned up again during October 2023:
In the meantime savvy long term participants have been accumulating positions in the most interesting tokens, deploying liquidity in the most profitable and promising pools and participating from network security via staking in proof of stake networks. Decentralized exchanges have gained a ton of ground and are now both secure and liquid enough for everyday use.
The prospect of a spot ETF and the likely deluge of institutional and tradfi demand that brings with it has been a salient point, which is about to materialize. Surprisingly, most traders expect some kind of sell the news situation after the event, or some delay or rejection causing disappointment.
The fact this is the prevailing sentiment is not a coincidence: most people have missed out on the rally from the bottom, or sold too early, or capitulated at the bottom, and still refuse to buy.
It takes a long time for people to give up from trying to buy at their exit, or on a too deep to be realistic and feasible dip on the way up…this is the ‘wall of worry’ pattern. By the time people warm up to the idea of pulling the trigger and paying up to not miss out, the market will face a significant correction or even a trend reversal in the mid or maybe even long term.
For that reason, it is important to be aware of what the technical levels traders wish to buy at are, it gives us a sense of a ‘trailing stop’ below the market where prices shouldn’t go if the market is in strong hands and not under distribution AFTER the long term top. (a pattern well documented in Jesse Livermore’s autobiographical work: ‘Reminiscences of a stocks operator’ which I highly recommend you read ASAP if you haven’t and if you did, re-read it. It’s highly relevant now and a great tool to aid us in navigating market trends)
Currently everyone is eyeing the 32k region for a correction to buy in, which roughly coincides with the level where a long term trend signal triggered in monthly and quarterly scale, right after price squeezed shorts from 28k onwards, and where price accelerated to the upside thereafter, leaving everyone behind…naturally, this level won’t be tested, with a substantial amount of confidence on this statement given the fundamental and technical outlook my thesis is based on.
If you have yet to buy a position in Bitcoin and/or any cryptocurrency project, don’t waste the opportunity offered by the close of the quarter and the year, and in some cases, the week, as many bullish signals exist in various coins, and in many cases, these happen to be very high reward to risk trades in very interesting projects, from a fundamental standpoint.
Here’s to a happy new year!
I hope everyone can have a nice and joyful time with their loved ones, as we leave this tumultuous 2023 behind, and make way for more prosperous and happy times for the world during 2024 and 2025.
Stay safe out and there and make sure to check out my signature out if you found this post valuable and interesting.
Best of luck!
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Another angle would be to see how the blow off tops have evolved, and in this case, we see a reduction of volatility from the 2016-2017 rally vs the 2020-2021 one...
If we apply the same reduction to current targets we get a price merely 1.73% higher than the target.
So, which will it be?
Average volatility vs history or gradually lower volatility as the asset class matures?