There have been 14 bull cycle moves up in this bull market since the last bear market low at $3129 on 12/15/18 (BLX and Coinbase prices):
12/15/18 $3129
12/24/18 $4239 35.5%
2/6/19 $3341
6/26/19 $13868 315%
7/7/19 $9071
8/6/19 $12320 35.8%
10/23/19 $7296
10/26/19 $10540 44.5%
12/18/19 $6430
2/13/20 $10522 63.6%
3/13/20 $3858
8/17/20 $12486 224%
9/5/20 $9813
1/8/21 $41986 323%
1/22/21 $28732
2/21/21 $58367 103%
2/28/21 $43016
4/14/21 $64899 50.9%
4/25/21 $47044
5/8/21 59560 26.6%
5/19/21 $30000
6/15/21 $41322 37.7%
6/22/21 $28800
6/29/21 $36676 27.3%
7/20/21 $29302
9/7/21 $52944 80.7%
9/21/21 $39600
11/10/21 $69000 74.2%
Notes:
The average % gained in these 14 bull moves up was 103%. Remember the post yesterday: the bear moves averaged -33.6% down.
The average # of days these 14 bull moves lasted was 53 days. Remember the post yesterday: the bear moves averaged 29.6 days. So the bull moves are about 3 times bigger in % terms than the bear moves. And the bull moves last about 79% longer than the bear moves on average.
What if we extended the average bull and bear moves achieved so far in this bull market from the $42333 low today?
12/4/21 $42333
1/26/22 $85936 103% in 53 days
2/25/22 $57061 -33.6% in 30 days
4/19/22 $115835 103% in 53 days
5/19/22 $76914 -33.6% in 30 days
6/11/22 $156136 103% in 53 days
7/11/22 $103674 -33.6% in 30 days
9/3/22 $210459 103% in 53 days
At this date, 9/3/22, the top of the Bitcoin log growth curves is about $200,000. Previous cycles BTC has gone 4-5% above the top of the curves. So based on average length of bull cycles and percentages, there should be a top in August to early September of 2022.
The market will not move like the averages, but the averages do project a reasonable length of time for the top of the curves to be hit. It looks longer than Ken Standfield's 5/25/22 top date and earlier than Nick Merten's Nov 2022 top date. It's more in line with Ben Cowen's Aug 2022 top date.
Standfield is projecting $350K to $450K for a top price which looks unreasonable based on where cycles have topped in relation to the curves in the past. Merten is projecting $200K which is in line with what the average bull and bear cycles are projecting in price as well as what the Bitcoin log growth curves are projecting in price by August to September 2022. The Elliot Wave depicted shows the coming minor waves completing the 5th intermediated wave. The 50 wma has held firm in the summer move down to $30000 and now this one from Nov 10th at $69000 to $42333 the other day. I think the 50 wma will continue to hold as support similar to the 21 wma holding as support in the 2017 bull Bitcoin market.
12/15/18 $3129
12/24/18 $4239 35.5%
2/6/19 $3341
6/26/19 $13868 315%
7/7/19 $9071
8/6/19 $12320 35.8%
10/23/19 $7296
10/26/19 $10540 44.5%
12/18/19 $6430
2/13/20 $10522 63.6%
3/13/20 $3858
8/17/20 $12486 224%
9/5/20 $9813
1/8/21 $41986 323%
1/22/21 $28732
2/21/21 $58367 103%
2/28/21 $43016
4/14/21 $64899 50.9%
4/25/21 $47044
5/8/21 59560 26.6%
5/19/21 $30000
6/15/21 $41322 37.7%
6/22/21 $28800
6/29/21 $36676 27.3%
7/20/21 $29302
9/7/21 $52944 80.7%
9/21/21 $39600
11/10/21 $69000 74.2%
Notes:
The average % gained in these 14 bull moves up was 103%. Remember the post yesterday: the bear moves averaged -33.6% down.
The average # of days these 14 bull moves lasted was 53 days. Remember the post yesterday: the bear moves averaged 29.6 days. So the bull moves are about 3 times bigger in % terms than the bear moves. And the bull moves last about 79% longer than the bear moves on average.
What if we extended the average bull and bear moves achieved so far in this bull market from the $42333 low today?
12/4/21 $42333
1/26/22 $85936 103% in 53 days
2/25/22 $57061 -33.6% in 30 days
4/19/22 $115835 103% in 53 days
5/19/22 $76914 -33.6% in 30 days
6/11/22 $156136 103% in 53 days
7/11/22 $103674 -33.6% in 30 days
9/3/22 $210459 103% in 53 days
At this date, 9/3/22, the top of the Bitcoin log growth curves is about $200,000. Previous cycles BTC has gone 4-5% above the top of the curves. So based on average length of bull cycles and percentages, there should be a top in August to early September of 2022.
The market will not move like the averages, but the averages do project a reasonable length of time for the top of the curves to be hit. It looks longer than Ken Standfield's 5/25/22 top date and earlier than Nick Merten's Nov 2022 top date. It's more in line with Ben Cowen's Aug 2022 top date.
Standfield is projecting $350K to $450K for a top price which looks unreasonable based on where cycles have topped in relation to the curves in the past. Merten is projecting $200K which is in line with what the average bull and bear cycles are projecting in price as well as what the Bitcoin log growth curves are projecting in price by August to September 2022. The Elliot Wave depicted shows the coming minor waves completing the 5th intermediated wave. The 50 wma has held firm in the summer move down to $30000 and now this one from Nov 10th at $69000 to $42333 the other day. I think the 50 wma will continue to hold as support similar to the 21 wma holding as support in the 2017 bull Bitcoin market.