Bitcoin Golden Ratio Based Macro Analysis
They're done with the futures. On Friday 27th, London 4pm CME their futures have expired and settled at 9300. They obviously went long and manipulated the price along the 6400-9300 line.
As expected the market started falling almost immediately, but technically we could still be in a correction of an up trend.
They will probably try keep the price in a large range 6000-12000 for a while and alternate between going short/long, set some traps along the way.
This way it is more manageable than, say, 10000-20000 and needs less resources for obvious pumps. I don't think they are interested in 30000-50000 at all. Like never ever.
Let's look at Bitcoin at the macro level from swing trader's perspective using 61.8% levels as guides.
Below are some key points and rough estimates of what can happen in the next few months:
1. There are 4 counts on the chart. Blue and Green bullish counts for the short term up trend and Red and Orange bearish continuations.
- breaking 7500 will invalidate current up trend (wave 4 enters the territory of wave 1).
- breaking 9800 will confirm the next wave (wave 3 or 5) of the up trend.
assuming that we will correct to 38.2% (8450-8500),
- for wave 5 (blue count) we have a target 10180 (161.8% of wave 1) or 11200 (261.8% of wave 1)
- for waves 3,5 (green count) we have targets 11700 and 14450 (100% of wave 1)
in case of a deeper 61.8% correction we will likely lose up trend momentum, move down in the orange down channel, break 7500 and retest 6000.
red count is used by default for bearish scenario. And if price goes above 11750 the count changes to orange (flipped WXY flat) and the trend goes deeper down.
2. On the chart there are 3 key 61.8% levels from different swings:
- 7750 - 61.8% of 6500 to 9800
- 9800 - 61.8% of 11700 to 6500
- 14450 - 61.8% of 20000 to 6000
3. Assuming that 61.8% is usually a turning point for the price we can establish theoretical boundaries and arrive to conclusions
- the fact that we were just recently stopped at 9800 on our way up supports this thesis.
- there's no way we can possibly smash 14450 on its first test on the way up. We will surely bounce down since there will be lots of resistance. So, this is the abs theoretical maximum for the short term up trend.
We can say the same thing for 12800 - 50% level of 20000 to 6000. For now, all we can have is a short term up trend no longer than 1-2 weeks.
- we will not correct lower than 7750 without bouncing up first.
- we will not form giant triangles or flag-type channels because there's simply not enough space to break down from those - the estimated targets are on negative scale.
we can only breakout from such triangle to the upside, or we can have a fakeout down and then go back up to start the up trend.
This sets up possible wave trajectories.
Bear in mind, that the status textbox in my profile has suddenly disappeared. So, I can't update my status with some quick TA tips.
Good Luck!
As expected the market started falling almost immediately, but technically we could still be in a correction of an up trend.
They will probably try keep the price in a large range 6000-12000 for a while and alternate between going short/long, set some traps along the way.
This way it is more manageable than, say, 10000-20000 and needs less resources for obvious pumps. I don't think they are interested in 30000-50000 at all. Like never ever.
Let's look at Bitcoin at the macro level from swing trader's perspective using 61.8% levels as guides.
Below are some key points and rough estimates of what can happen in the next few months:
1. There are 4 counts on the chart. Blue and Green bullish counts for the short term up trend and Red and Orange bearish continuations.
- breaking 7500 will invalidate current up trend (wave 4 enters the territory of wave 1).
- breaking 9800 will confirm the next wave (wave 3 or 5) of the up trend.
assuming that we will correct to 38.2% (8450-8500),
- for wave 5 (blue count) we have a target 10180 (161.8% of wave 1) or 11200 (261.8% of wave 1)
- for waves 3,5 (green count) we have targets 11700 and 14450 (100% of wave 1)
in case of a deeper 61.8% correction we will likely lose up trend momentum, move down in the orange down channel, break 7500 and retest 6000.
red count is used by default for bearish scenario. And if price goes above 11750 the count changes to orange (flipped WXY flat) and the trend goes deeper down.
2. On the chart there are 3 key 61.8% levels from different swings:
- 7750 - 61.8% of 6500 to 9800
- 9800 - 61.8% of 11700 to 6500
- 14450 - 61.8% of 20000 to 6000
3. Assuming that 61.8% is usually a turning point for the price we can establish theoretical boundaries and arrive to conclusions
- the fact that we were just recently stopped at 9800 on our way up supports this thesis.
- there's no way we can possibly smash 14450 on its first test on the way up. We will surely bounce down since there will be lots of resistance. So, this is the abs theoretical maximum for the short term up trend.
We can say the same thing for 12800 - 50% level of 20000 to 6000. For now, all we can have is a short term up trend no longer than 1-2 weeks.
- we will not correct lower than 7750 without bouncing up first.
- we will not form giant triangles or flag-type channels because there's simply not enough space to break down from those - the estimated targets are on negative scale.
we can only breakout from such triangle to the upside, or we can have a fakeout down and then go back up to start the up trend.
This sets up possible wave trajectories.
Bear in mind, that the status textbox in my profile has suddenly disappeared. So, I can't update my status with some quick TA tips.
Good Luck!
Comment:
We have touched the intersection of the orange channel and the trend resistance line and will correct to 8500 now. We don't seem to be in a wave 3 yet because it's weak. But we might have one after proper correction. I'm fairly confident that we won't break 10000 in a single pass without a pump because it's the all time 50% retracement level. And 10300 just above is the yearly 50% level. We will correct and decide which way to go - up to test the 10000 or down to 6800. The current bias is bullish but it may change after the correction.