Bitcoin Macro Analysis - Approaching Key Yearly Pivot
Here's a fresh macro look at what's coming using weekly ichimoku, elliott waves and fibos.
Bitcoin is rapidly approaching a key yearly pivot. Whatever happens in the next 2 weeks will define Bitcoin (and the whole crypto) market till the end of the year.
We will soon enter the vertical rising ichimoku cloud on a weekly (Point 3). Historically we already had 2 radically different bullish continuations in such case (Points 1 and 2) and this one is likely to be bullish as well. However,
- after Point 1 we had an exponential growth in wave 5, and
- after Point 2 we only retested the prev high, managed to barely climb atop the cloud, fell through it and then plummeted to the historic bear bottom in a series of declines spanning a few months.
Note that in each case the horizontal part of the cloud has a flat bottom (lower boundary) which implies a likely bounce down if tested from below. In both P1 and P2 we haven't breached the vertical wall, and went immediately up in a strong push inside the cloud to avoid penetrating its flat bottom on the other side of the wall. We will likely do the same thing now. Question is which of P1 or P2 will we have? The bearish flat cloud bottom starts at June 11th, so we have about 2 weeks to move up and climb the cloud.
You can also see a few pitchforks on the chart plotted using different pairs of waves 1 and 2 of various degrees. Mean red lines of the pitchforks show possible targets for bull run and correction. If you also count in other factors, such as S/R, trend lines and fibos - we have a few confluence zones:
1. Bullish scenario:
We have 3 completed waves, and are now in WXY correction in wave 4 (blue count), waiting for wave 5 of wave III to start. Blue count has a higher angle.
We have intersecting:
- red mean line from I-II pitchfork
- red mean line from 1-2 pitchfork (blue count)
- green trend support line (aka giant triangle support)
- ichimoku cloud wall
- almost lost support of EMA 50 - need to act fast, within weeks
all of which give us a possible starting point for a bull run that is due right about now (in the next few days).
If we want to remain bullish and climb up the cloud we can't break the trend line, and we can't pierce through the vertical cloud wall. Testing its flat bottom on the other side will likely send us down.
We should bounce off of the trend line and move up inside the cloud. That's the only way.
2. Bearish scenario:
We have 5 completed waves in a completed wave III (red count), and are now in wave IV in an extended bearish WXY correction (bear market) of the whole 1-2-3-4-5 structure (red count), waiting for wave 1 of wave V of the up trend to start. Red count has a lower angle.
- red mean lines from waves 1-2 pitchforks (red count) intersecting with major S/R and 78.6%, 88.6% fibos and a trend support line give us 2 possible Bear targets. First target is 4600.
Recap:
- expect a pump and a retest of 11700 soon. It should be completed by June 11th. Otherwise we will enter a bear market till the end of year (we will likely go even lower than bear targets).
- In bullish scenario we probably won't break 12000 (P2 is more likely), we can pullback and do it at a later time when the cloud is thin enough (end of august)
- In bearish scenario we will continue in a bearish market till the end of august (possibly november)
- Also some research says that we can't go below 6000 because that's what it costs to produce 1 BTC - miners can't mine with zero profit.
- this also sort of fits the expiration of the futures to some degree. The futures have expired today, 25th. The market makers obviously went short to close at around 7500. Now they're free to pump and catch the whole bunch of frightened bears. Next time they'll probably go long once again and take profit on June 29th, then drop the price.
Good Luck!
Please don't trade based on my analysis. This is not a financial advice. Do your own research. Confirm/Disprove using other methods.
Bitcoin is rapidly approaching a key yearly pivot. Whatever happens in the next 2 weeks will define Bitcoin (and the whole crypto) market till the end of the year.
We will soon enter the vertical rising ichimoku cloud on a weekly (Point 3). Historically we already had 2 radically different bullish continuations in such case (Points 1 and 2) and this one is likely to be bullish as well. However,
- after Point 1 we had an exponential growth in wave 5, and
- after Point 2 we only retested the prev high, managed to barely climb atop the cloud, fell through it and then plummeted to the historic bear bottom in a series of declines spanning a few months.
Note that in each case the horizontal part of the cloud has a flat bottom (lower boundary) which implies a likely bounce down if tested from below. In both P1 and P2 we haven't breached the vertical wall, and went immediately up in a strong push inside the cloud to avoid penetrating its flat bottom on the other side of the wall. We will likely do the same thing now. Question is which of P1 or P2 will we have? The bearish flat cloud bottom starts at June 11th, so we have about 2 weeks to move up and climb the cloud.
You can also see a few pitchforks on the chart plotted using different pairs of waves 1 and 2 of various degrees. Mean red lines of the pitchforks show possible targets for bull run and correction. If you also count in other factors, such as S/R, trend lines and fibos - we have a few confluence zones:
1. Bullish scenario:
We have 3 completed waves, and are now in WXY correction in wave 4 (blue count), waiting for wave 5 of wave III to start. Blue count has a higher angle.
We have intersecting:
- red mean line from I-II pitchfork
- red mean line from 1-2 pitchfork (blue count)
- green trend support line (aka giant triangle support)
- ichimoku cloud wall
- almost lost support of EMA 50 - need to act fast, within weeks
all of which give us a possible starting point for a bull run that is due right about now (in the next few days).
If we want to remain bullish and climb up the cloud we can't break the trend line, and we can't pierce through the vertical cloud wall. Testing its flat bottom on the other side will likely send us down.
We should bounce off of the trend line and move up inside the cloud. That's the only way.
2. Bearish scenario:
We have 5 completed waves in a completed wave III (red count), and are now in wave IV in an extended bearish WXY correction (bear market) of the whole 1-2-3-4-5 structure (red count), waiting for wave 1 of wave V of the up trend to start. Red count has a lower angle.
- red mean lines from waves 1-2 pitchforks (red count) intersecting with major S/R and 78.6%, 88.6% fibos and a trend support line give us 2 possible Bear targets. First target is 4600.
Recap:
- expect a pump and a retest of 11700 soon. It should be completed by June 11th. Otherwise we will enter a bear market till the end of year (we will likely go even lower than bear targets).
- In bullish scenario we probably won't break 12000 (P2 is more likely), we can pullback and do it at a later time when the cloud is thin enough (end of august)
- In bearish scenario we will continue in a bearish market till the end of august (possibly november)
- Also some research says that we can't go below 6000 because that's what it costs to produce 1 BTC - miners can't mine with zero profit.
- this also sort of fits the expiration of the futures to some degree. The futures have expired today, 25th. The market makers obviously went short to close at around 7500. Now they're free to pump and catch the whole bunch of frightened bears. Next time they'll probably go long once again and take profit on June 29th, then drop the price.
Good Luck!
Please don't trade based on my analysis. This is not a financial advice. Do your own research. Confirm/Disprove using other methods.
