The cryptocurrency market is a market of expectations

Lots of good news, but that's just at first glance.


Expectations and reality

1. Last week we had good news about XRP victory, and this news was spread all over the internet and the market reacted with growth. XRP is not a security, but those contracts sold to early stage funds may still be considered securities.
So the case is not closed yet and it will continue as a subject of manipulation
The SEC can appeal this decision at any appropriate time.

2. FTX - there are a lot of rumors and different statements now about the reopening of this exchange, there are a lot of forms on the net ( fraudulent and not) about FTX account recovery and confirmation. Hope is given:) not the fact that the funds will be restored

3. I would not be surprised if they start to restore UST and LUNA case, if they do not start to restore at least give hope. ( reference - the cryptocurrency market is a market of expectations )

4. BTC ETF.
This is the same expectation that has been jutting for a long time and now strong funds such as BlackRock have joined, which have been buying physical bitcoin through other funds for a long time (e.g. at least 10% of Microstrategy belongs to BlackRock).
On the expectation of ETF approval the market is inspired (I wrote a post about Blackrock).

In any case after ETF approval we will see a drop here there is a logic:
- ETF contracts can be bought more than physical bitcoins.
- Need a good entry point into the market, 30k+ is not the best entry point
- A drop in price with physical bitcoins + media resources etc. seems to me as very logical and very likely.

All these points should happen at the peak of the hype, when many disillusioned in crypto after FTX and other shocks will start to re-enter the market, it all explains the Logistic Curve - the speed of information dissemination.

The Which curve explains that when FTX crashed in November 2022 was the beginning of a new cycle, which I talked about in previous posts, then everyone was afraid and thought it would go even lower.


And the end zone of the cycle is when the crowd comes into the market, a lot of noise shouting about a bright future, we are on the cusp of these events.
At that time of course we will see a lot of dumb money big green candles on small capitalization altcoins. And that's the time to get out.
Frankly I got out even earlier in stablecoins and now I only do swing trades ( positional orders positions with small stop loss )

If we talk about the time when all this can happen, it is a difficult question, because according to my previous calculations in September-October I was already waiting for the bottom, I am still waiting for it and my portfolio 100% In stablecoins is a proof of it.

Well after the fall we will have the most interesting negative news, here is the list:
- SEC appeal question on XRP
- SEC questions to all crypto companies that made public sale - fines, lawsuit.
- Questions to crypto exchanges ( bankruptcy of crypto exchanges)
- Regulation
- CBDC implementation and trading in some jurisdictions BTC/CBDC ( currency )

You definitely won't want to buy cryptocurrency on news like this, and this will be the moment when the new cycle begins.


So ladies and gentlemen we are here for a long time and welcome to our community. And remember, trading is not a sprint - trading is a marathon.

Best regard EXCAVO

Comment:

+