Bitcoin - Critical Monthly Close

This is a Monthly view on Bitcoin

The blue descending line shows resistance on BODIES of our monthly candles

The black descending line shows resistance on WICKS of our monthly candles

June's closing price will determine, IMO, what type of price action we will see for the final 6 months of 2020:

(1) Close >= $9,400: Our body is ABOVE blue descending line
-this would be the first time we managed to do this since our 2017 blow-off top
-it would be massively bullish
-it would strongly increase the likelihood we break $20K before EOY

(2) Close < $9,300: Our body is BELOW blue descending line
-monthly bodies still remain below blue descending line
-next 6 months will be blah, and we will go much lower testing lower ascending trend line
-$20K ATH will not be broken until sometime in 2021

Price level close between $9,400 and $9,300: Wildcard

Comment:

The more I look at this, the more I realize the candle body descending line is a little subjective. We may be above it:

Comment:

Flash forward 2 months to early Sep-20 and we look very bullish:

(1) We are consolidating above the 10-SMA (blue line)

(2) Both the 10 & 50 SMA trend lines are moving upwards (w/10 above 50)

(3) We have remained above both multi-year descending trend lines shown; showing a clear positive change in direction (UP)

(4) RSI remains above 50 (breaks below 50 show some large bearish price action)

(5) Stochastic RSI is trending up

(6) MACD had a bullish cross that has remained and looks stable

Comment:

I also wanted to show a quick view on the weekly.

I think many are aware of this, but focus on the orange weekly 21-SMA

During our prior bull run we remained >= to this price level (shown below)

I am expecting this key trend line to hold EVEN IF we WICK below it (current 21 SMA price level = 9,838)

Comment: