Fundementally...
If history repeats, which seems to be a fundamental basis for technical analysis, the 2nd meteoric bull run of BTC is inevitably resulting in the 2nd monstrous bear market of similar scale to the last one. All the fireworks, the hope, the glory, and the 'Moon' and 'Lambo' boys has fizzled out into a teenage wet dream. Social media is now full of anger and despair, and it appears the welcome and much needed capitulation is just around the corner. This should hopefully see true economics (of the decentralised nature) come into play and tidy up the markets of all the over hyped shitcoin scammers that get in the way of true innovation.
I have always been a proponent of market economics and that regardless of It's scarcity BTC should, unless true adoption happens, find It's value based on It's cost to produce. As the hardware and electricity costs are cheaper in China than 99% of the rest of the world it makes sense that given the POW system BTC uses, China will be the dominating force and setting the lowest operational price possible. We are just starting to see this effect with Bitmain, one of the largest BTC miners, closing off a majority chunk of its workforce at a weeks notice.
If you've been on the shortside of BTC this year then bravo! Well done. In hindsight it was obvious but market emotions are a powerful force, especially when retail traders are the driving force.
Along with the impending technology revolution, blockchain has It's place as a master key for change. Corrupt social, economic, corporate and control systems around the world cry out for the change that a decentralised system of accountability and control could do for humanity, it really is a big picture solution, holistic in potential and freedom in essence. How this all pans out is a story untold and one we shall have front row seats for in our lifetime. Cue popcorn.
Technically...
Given the relatively short but spritely life of BTC, the long term view can only be looked at from the Log perspective.
22-26 month bear/bull cycles seem to at this stage be the target expectation with a classic breakout/retest pattern. That cycle puts us at a bear to bull reversal September 2019 and December seems to be a popular month for the BTC Bulls.
Approx 2000% gains, and then 1000% leads me to think that along with future market utility, competition, and liquidity the next bull run will be lesser at 500% and fall inline with difficulty increases and mainstream adoption.
In the short term I expect stubborn resistance at $3,500, possibly a local inverse H&S (4hr) could see a rally back to $5000, but ultimately I think dark days ahead and sub $1,900 likely.
Approx Support/Resistance Levels
6000
5600
4800
3500
2900
1900
1200
If history repeats, which seems to be a fundamental basis for technical analysis, the 2nd meteoric bull run of BTC is inevitably resulting in the 2nd monstrous bear market of similar scale to the last one. All the fireworks, the hope, the glory, and the 'Moon' and 'Lambo' boys has fizzled out into a teenage wet dream. Social media is now full of anger and despair, and it appears the welcome and much needed capitulation is just around the corner. This should hopefully see true economics (of the decentralised nature) come into play and tidy up the markets of all the over hyped shitcoin scammers that get in the way of true innovation.
I have always been a proponent of market economics and that regardless of It's scarcity BTC should, unless true adoption happens, find It's value based on It's cost to produce. As the hardware and electricity costs are cheaper in China than 99% of the rest of the world it makes sense that given the POW system BTC uses, China will be the dominating force and setting the lowest operational price possible. We are just starting to see this effect with Bitmain, one of the largest BTC miners, closing off a majority chunk of its workforce at a weeks notice.
If you've been on the shortside of BTC this year then bravo! Well done. In hindsight it was obvious but market emotions are a powerful force, especially when retail traders are the driving force.
Along with the impending technology revolution, blockchain has It's place as a master key for change. Corrupt social, economic, corporate and control systems around the world cry out for the change that a decentralised system of accountability and control could do for humanity, it really is a big picture solution, holistic in potential and freedom in essence. How this all pans out is a story untold and one we shall have front row seats for in our lifetime. Cue popcorn.
Technically...
Given the relatively short but spritely life of BTC, the long term view can only be looked at from the Log perspective.
22-26 month bear/bull cycles seem to at this stage be the target expectation with a classic breakout/retest pattern. That cycle puts us at a bear to bull reversal September 2019 and December seems to be a popular month for the BTC Bulls.
Approx 2000% gains, and then 1000% leads me to think that along with future market utility, competition, and liquidity the next bull run will be lesser at 500% and fall inline with difficulty increases and mainstream adoption.
In the short term I expect stubborn resistance at $3,500, possibly a local inverse H&S (4hr) could see a rally back to $5000, but ultimately I think dark days ahead and sub $1,900 likely.
Approx Support/Resistance Levels
6000
5600
4800
3500
2900
1900
1200