Disclaimer: This is my own thoughts based on my own analysis and is not trade advice. Do your own research and analysis to come to your own conclusions and only use mine to cross reference against your own analysis.
Previously I published an idea suggesting bitcoin would come down to between 18-20k and it seems to be forming a 5 wave cycle in a channel. That channel was broken and it appears to have been an ABC pattern which went down to just past my initial prediction of 18k and ended around 17.5k. If you Took a short sell on the back of that analysis we'll done, target was hit :)
There is a level of downside risk and i believe there is a small posibility that it could go to next level of resistance turned support area of between 11,500 - 14,000. On the shorter term (4h chart) it appears that there is a bearish flag forming which could be the wave 3 - 4 of the 5 wave cycle I originally suggested.
I however am strongly against that idea for the reasons which can be seen on my weekly chart and detailed below:
1) Previous strong resistance of around 19k will now provide strong support
2) Price is at the bottom of the long term fibbonaci channel I have drawn on my chart. I have made this clearer than my previous rainbow channel and added in the grey area below the blue channel (which is just an extension of -1.618).
3) RSI is in an oversold position on the weekly chart - as you can see that previously, whenever the weekly RSI has been in this position, this has been the turning point and has been the catalyst to a bull run. Obviously past performance is no indication of future performance, but this is giving me the idea that this is a high probability trade and will soon be going on another rally.
I already have my long positions open from around the 18k mark and my stop loss is now break even, so I have zero risk on this trade, but if you follow this analysis and use it to open a position, please don't trade stupid and use a stop loss to limit your risk at your defined amount of risk - if you don't have this defined, don't know what risk management is or you are risking all of your money / high % of your balance, do some research on risk management and what levels of risk are considered low risk (if you're risking more than 5% of your balance on any one trade this is extremely high risk).
This is a long term swing trade idea and not just a day trade / short term trade and I have set the below targets based on a fibbonaci retracement of this downwards move from the all time high to the recent low.
Target 1 - 100k (127% retracement)
Target 2 - 160k (161.8% retracement)
Good trading 👍🏻
Previously I published an idea suggesting bitcoin would come down to between 18-20k and it seems to be forming a 5 wave cycle in a channel. That channel was broken and it appears to have been an ABC pattern which went down to just past my initial prediction of 18k and ended around 17.5k. If you Took a short sell on the back of that analysis we'll done, target was hit :)
There is a level of downside risk and i believe there is a small posibility that it could go to next level of resistance turned support area of between 11,500 - 14,000. On the shorter term (4h chart) it appears that there is a bearish flag forming which could be the wave 3 - 4 of the 5 wave cycle I originally suggested.
I however am strongly against that idea for the reasons which can be seen on my weekly chart and detailed below:
1) Previous strong resistance of around 19k will now provide strong support
2) Price is at the bottom of the long term fibbonaci channel I have drawn on my chart. I have made this clearer than my previous rainbow channel and added in the grey area below the blue channel (which is just an extension of -1.618).
3) RSI is in an oversold position on the weekly chart - as you can see that previously, whenever the weekly RSI has been in this position, this has been the turning point and has been the catalyst to a bull run. Obviously past performance is no indication of future performance, but this is giving me the idea that this is a high probability trade and will soon be going on another rally.
I already have my long positions open from around the 18k mark and my stop loss is now break even, so I have zero risk on this trade, but if you follow this analysis and use it to open a position, please don't trade stupid and use a stop loss to limit your risk at your defined amount of risk - if you don't have this defined, don't know what risk management is or you are risking all of your money / high % of your balance, do some research on risk management and what levels of risk are considered low risk (if you're risking more than 5% of your balance on any one trade this is extremely high risk).
This is a long term swing trade idea and not just a day trade / short term trade and I have set the below targets based on a fibbonaci retracement of this downwards move from the all time high to the recent low.
Target 1 - 100k (127% retracement)
Target 2 - 160k (161.8% retracement)
Good trading 👍🏻
