Sooooo, I've had this analysis sitting on my laptop for several days now, but I didn't post it because the last BTC analysis has been playing out so nicely. Haha, anyway, here you go...
Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's get right to it! Looking at the daily chart, we can see that price is clearly in a large uptrend channel (in blue.) This channel has two clear reactions on the top trendline, and two clear reactions on the bottom trendline. Additionally, we can see that the midline of the channel (dashed blue trendline) has been reactive in the past as well. So, this is a clearly defined uptrend channel.
What is interesting about this, is that we just recently were rejected at the top of the channel. Does that mean that we will now fall directly to the bottom of the channel? Well, it's possible. However, we do have several significant support levels on the way down, and any one of them could be held. Those support levels are the 200 EMA (in purple,) the 50 EMA (in orange,) and the midline of the channel. There are other moving averages passing through this channel as well, but those are the big ones. What is interesting about those moving averages, is that we can see that the 200 and 50 EMA appear to be setting up for a golden cross. If we do happen to get a golden cross, in the next few weeks, that will be a HUGE indication that the bear market is complete, and that we are in a transition phase into the next bull market.
Speaking of transition phases, there are some technical studies that I am following, which confirm transition phases, but they haven't produced a technical confirmation of that yet. I do believe that it is (technically) coming, and when it does, I will publicize it. Nevertheless, I believe that we are in a transition phase, and that we will be in the beginning stages of the next bull market later this year.
Getting back to the analysis at hand, I would ideally like to see BTC return to the bottom of the channel (so that I can further load these terribly heavy bags of mine =D) but that isn't guaranteed. You can see that I have a big nasty arrow pointing toward the bottom of the channel, but that is just a crude representation of what I believe price could do, in a maximum downside scenario. Truth be told, any one of the aforementioned support levels could hold. So, pick your buy levels carefully.
Looking at the MACD, we can see that it's just now starting to cross over bearish, and the RSI has just dipped back into the neutral zone, after being severely overbought. I have compared the overbought daily RSI to similar instances throughout the history of BTC, and what I found is that the vast majority of those instances produce RSI retracements to the bottom of the neutral zone, or slightly above it (red trendline.) So, if price continues to fall, I will be a big buyer when the RSI reaches the red horizontal trendline.
In the short term, I believe that we are about to see price return to the 4000s, and possibly all the way down to the 4300 region, which would be near the bottom of the uptrend channel. Stay on guard, because we're pulling back after making contact with the top of the uptrend channel.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-
Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's get right to it! Looking at the daily chart, we can see that price is clearly in a large uptrend channel (in blue.) This channel has two clear reactions on the top trendline, and two clear reactions on the bottom trendline. Additionally, we can see that the midline of the channel (dashed blue trendline) has been reactive in the past as well. So, this is a clearly defined uptrend channel.
What is interesting about this, is that we just recently were rejected at the top of the channel. Does that mean that we will now fall directly to the bottom of the channel? Well, it's possible. However, we do have several significant support levels on the way down, and any one of them could be held. Those support levels are the 200 EMA (in purple,) the 50 EMA (in orange,) and the midline of the channel. There are other moving averages passing through this channel as well, but those are the big ones. What is interesting about those moving averages, is that we can see that the 200 and 50 EMA appear to be setting up for a golden cross. If we do happen to get a golden cross, in the next few weeks, that will be a HUGE indication that the bear market is complete, and that we are in a transition phase into the next bull market.
Speaking of transition phases, there are some technical studies that I am following, which confirm transition phases, but they haven't produced a technical confirmation of that yet. I do believe that it is (technically) coming, and when it does, I will publicize it. Nevertheless, I believe that we are in a transition phase, and that we will be in the beginning stages of the next bull market later this year.
Getting back to the analysis at hand, I would ideally like to see BTC return to the bottom of the channel (so that I can further load these terribly heavy bags of mine =D) but that isn't guaranteed. You can see that I have a big nasty arrow pointing toward the bottom of the channel, but that is just a crude representation of what I believe price could do, in a maximum downside scenario. Truth be told, any one of the aforementioned support levels could hold. So, pick your buy levels carefully.
Looking at the MACD, we can see that it's just now starting to cross over bearish, and the RSI has just dipped back into the neutral zone, after being severely overbought. I have compared the overbought daily RSI to similar instances throughout the history of BTC, and what I found is that the vast majority of those instances produce RSI retracements to the bottom of the neutral zone, or slightly above it (red trendline.) So, if price continues to fall, I will be a big buyer when the RSI reaches the red horizontal trendline.
In the short term, I believe that we are about to see price return to the 4000s, and possibly all the way down to the 4300 region, which would be near the bottom of the uptrend channel. Stay on guard, because we're pulling back after making contact with the top of the uptrend channel.
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! Au revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***
-JD-