Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Let's get right to it! Looking at the , we can see that price is clearly in a large (in blue.) This channel has two clear reactions on the top , and two clear reactions on the bottom . Additionally, we can see that the midline of the channel (dashed blue ) has been reactive in the past as well. So, this is a clearly defined .
What is interesting about this, is that we just recently were rejected at the top of the channel. Does that mean that we will now fall directly to the bottom of the channel? Well, it's possible. However, we do have several significant support levels on the way down, and any one of them could be held. Those support levels are the 200 (in purple,) the 50 (in orange,) and the midline of the channel. There are other moving averages passing through this channel as well, but those are the big ones. What is interesting about those moving averages, is that we can see that the 200 and 50 appear to be setting up for a golden cross. If we do happen to get a golden cross, in the next few weeks, that will be a HUGE indication that the bear market is complete, and that we are in a transition phase into the next bull market.
Speaking of transition phases, there are some technical studies that I am following, which confirm transition phases, but they haven't produced a technical confirmation of that yet. I do believe that it is (technically) coming, and when it does, I will publicize it. Nevertheless, I believe that we are in a transition phase, and that we will be in the beginning stages of the next bull market later this year.
Getting back to the analysis at hand, I would ideally like to see BTC return to the bottom of the channel (so that I can further load these terribly heavy bags of mine =D) but that isn't guaranteed. You can see that I have a big nasty arrow pointing toward the bottom of the channel, but that is just a crude representation of what I believe price could do, in a maximum downside scenario. Truth be told, any one of the aforementioned support levels could hold. So, pick your buy levels carefully.
Looking at the , we can see that it's just now starting to cross over , and the has just dipped back into the neutral zone, after being severely overbought. I have compared the overbought daily to similar instances throughout the history of BTC , and what I found is that the vast majority of those instances produce retracements to the bottom of the neutral zone, or slightly above it (red .) So, if price continues to fall, I will be a big buyer when the reaches the red horizontal .
In the short term, I believe that we are about to see price return to the 4000s, and possibly all the way down to the 4300 region, which would be near the bottom of the . Stay on guard, because we're pulling back after making contact with the top of the .
I'm the master of the charts, the professor, the legend, the king, and I go by the name of Magic! revoir.
***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***