BTC Daily Elliott Wave - Cautious Optimism

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Most Elliott Wave counts for Bitcoin are oversimplified or incomplete, failing to identify nested waves of different degrees. Here I propose a double zig-zag correction for a potential Cycle 2 bottom.

The recent drop in price has made BTC retrace nearly 88% of the all time high at 1165 in November 2013. I am marking the high at 1165 as the top of Cycle 1 (also marked as roman numeral 1 in some EWave texts). This means that the recent low at $152 is a candidate for the Cycle 2 bottom.

The deepest retrace for a wave 2 is the 88.6% fib. Going back to other BTC spikes and drops, it is clear that wave 2 retraces are deep, often retracing more than 80% of the prior rise. The low of 152.40 is a 87% retrace of the 1165 high, meaning a lower target of 132.81 for the 88.6% retrace is still plausible, so be cautious until the white trendline is broken. These measurements are also estimates - 87% could be the bottom.

Assuming the recent low was the bottom, price can drop to between the 62.8% and 88.6% fib retraces ($211 - $170) of the recent rise to $310 and this count would still be valid. That is what I will monitor going forward. or search my TradingView profile for prior counts.
Nice job.
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