botje11
Short

Bitcoin believers are fighting the bears and scared believers,

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
This 'long' term chart still looks bearish , but there are some signs of strenght. The failed attempt to go higher at the arrow at 16.400 was a very weak signal!. But the other 2 arrows show that drops towards low 13K             is seen as a good buy opportunity. Volume is also not decreasing, which shows some strenght. A rise above 15.500 suggests the bearish sentiment is weakening. To stay weak, it should stay below the read area around 14.500

My targets are still below the 10K, but it should drop below the 13K             within 24H. I have already closed half my short position yesterday at 13.650, because i dont want to risk to much in this hype. I could be adding again around 14.500/15.000
Comment: It is trying to turn up again and make an end to this downward correction, So far no succes, but to stay weak it should drop the coming 24H, even now as you can see in the chart, the pink cirkel, its trying to turn up again, making higher highs and higher lows. The red area is a big resistance now, it already failed to go above this level, showing a sign of selling pressure! The grean area is an important short term support, below this level it could accelerate downwards again!

Comment:

For strenght it should stay above the green line, if it drops below, than the last chance is probably 13.900 to get higher again.
Comment: This will be the final attempt, it succeeds and it will rise above 14.600 or it will drop and make a new low. As i am writing this it has pushed through, now it should stay above 14.400 to stow strenght

Comment: Bitstamp chart, looked like it was making a small H&S, while dropping out the cirkel, and than all of sudden you see a big spike up, actually showing strenght there. I will put my stop at 15.600, wich is break even for the half position i did not close yesterday. The consolidation was taking to long, than confidence can return slowly, as it just did. But it still has to overtake the 15.600 and finally the 17.600 to make an attempt for a new ATH

Comment:

In the first comment i mentioned those 2 drops that looked like a break of support, could now be described as bear traps. It is showing some real strengh now, with the spike up through the resistance at 14.500. It's not really getting sold, so i will close my other half if it get's near the 14.600 again, so i would still have around 1000 points profit, i see that the chances are bigger now for a rise in price than another drop. So this is a new sign for me and i have to act and adjust on it. It could still make a big drop, but than i would be hoping for itand ignoring what the recent price movement is suggesting.
Comment: And many alt coins are showing very bullish short term patterns, this confirmed my doubt
Comment: IF it drops towards 14.600 i will put in a trailing stop of 150 points, risking that for a chance this attempt could fail. If it doesn't i will probably close at 15.100 ensuring at least 500 points
Comment: Again the chart of Bitstamp, showing te same pattern, an H&S with another attempt to make it fail, but now you see a clear difference in volume, let's see if we can lock up something in our memory :)
Comment: Lesson learned :), so the low volume did predict something here. It failed to go higher and a few hours later it dropped 1000 points. Something to keep in mind

Comment: What is happening the last 2 days, is why sideways action is always tricky, especcialy with the Bitcoin, any minute strenght can turn into weakness. It broke out the 14.400 yesterday with real conviction, giving the impression the are not letting it go, witht those 2 bear traps as some sort of confirmation, but than the follow up fails and it drops below the 14.400 again! I mentioned in a previous update, just when it broke out, that it had to stay above the 14.400 to show strenght. Once again it's haning on the support of the bearish flag, but i have seen these kind of moves before, that just when it seems to be dropping and falling through support, than all of a sudden it gets bought really strong (what i mean with a bear trap). That's why trading the Bitcoin is always very tricky. A drop below 13.800 would be a first big sign of weakness.

Comment: I have to be honoust now, i cant really say what the direction will on the 5 min and 15 min time frame. I can only refer to previous highs and low. I dont these really see any patterns on these time frames
Comment: I can only see some sort of H&S, but these are the worst, H&S should be formed at top and bottoms, i dont like these that much. It did drop under the neckline but the retrace seems unsuccesful. If it shoots back up above the 14.400 than a rise further has the biggest chance
Comment:
No bounce at all, probably go lower now
Comment: Target 12.800
Comment: Wrong chart, the previous one. Target is around 12.900.



Longer time frame shows support around 13.100 and last support around 12.000
Comment:
Target perfectley reached, now lets see what it does, if it does not get above 13.500 again, expect another big drop
Comment: This small H&S suggests 13.650, lets see if the neckline gets broken, in a very negative momentum, these small H&S tend to fail and than continues to accelerate further down. Other way around as i showed yesterday for the bullish version

Comment:
It failed again and immediately dropped 300 points, there was no support at that cirkled area to push it through the neckline
Comment: These 2 ideas are possible (all that it stays below the 13.500 ofcourse. It looks like it's making a decending triangle. Normally it drops out on the downside, but upside is also an option
Comment: So far it seems to follow the blue line, for weak momentum it has to stay below the 13.500. If it does, i expect 12K
Comment: I keep seeing the buy orders in the book of 100 BTC again like it's giving buying support, i have not seen these kind of orders for a month or longer. I don't look at the book all day long, so maybe i miss it sometimes, but on average it has been much less than before. It's difficult to say if it's smart money or just buying support to not let it drop to much. Just something i notice and have mentioned many times a few months ago.
Comment: Last update for now, nothing has changed yet, there is now real buying or a big spike up, what normally is needed for Bitcoin to form a real short term bottom. So changes are bigger that it will go down some more. The 13.600 is a good level to say the negative momentum will turn to neutral for the short term.

Comment: It stayed perfectly under the 13.500! And target 12K even over reached. Looks like its making another flag now, but my guess is it will cool off again and will bounce up around that blue area to go sideways again. IF it does drop, than it will drop really fast and hard again.

Comment:
It's in that blue area, understand this is nothing more than a guess, based on things i have seen many times before, but it depends on how negative the momentum still is! Alts are also turning more negative now, dropping below support levels. So it could be different this time.
Comment: And as predicted a bounce from that blue area, chances are the biggest it will get close to the blue area again and maybe from that point go more up and sideways, preparing itself for another big drop later today or tomorrow
Comment: As predicted again, going towards the blue are again, i expect it NOT to drop below it.
Comment: I really thought they would not let it drop below the 12K, but the buying power, conviction and tricks it had untill a few weeks ago, seem to belong to the past now.

That trendline around 11.800 is the neckline of the BIG H&S i was talking about on 20 december. But it needs to drop at least 500 points below to say the nekline is broken. For now it's still within that green support area, lets see it it drops through or bounces of it. Chances are bigger it wil drop below, because it's hanging around that level and not making a real bounce up WITH big volume

Comment: First small resistance now at 12.300, i think it will drop back to around 12.000 and maybe from that point it will try to go higher again towards the 13K. For the ones who have been short from 14K and higher, i would not do anything, because the market is very weak now, it could make a big drop any second
Comment: Flag suggests 13.200, If it does not reach it, not even 13.000, than it's a sign of weakness nd it will drop back to 12K
Comment: It's showing some strenght now, this could even lead up to the high 13K area. If it stays above 12.600, than it will go to 13.500. The blue line is what i think will happen in the next 24H. Things can change though!!
Comment: 12.600, should stay above it
Comment: Small H&S, probably go to 12.500 again
Comment: I am gonna short it for a small trade at 13.100https://www.
Comment:
Comment: I have put a stop for this trade at 13.300. There is no real buyying power and volume, but there is also no real selling at this resistance area, so chances are bigger now that eventually it will take out this resistance, but i am already in the trade, so if it gets below my entry level of 13.100, i will lower the stop to 13.200 and trail the the stop with 100 points. To minimise the loss.

Comment: The bigger picture: I think it will go up untill the 13.800, at this level it will have corrected 2/3 of the drop from 15.000 2 days ago, the same amount as it corrected from the 16.500 to the 13.300 bottom a few days ago. At the 13.800 is also a former support level, the green area, this should be a small resistance now. IF it reaches this level i will probably add some more to my longer term short position.

Comment:
The yellow area shows that this is a real trading channel, drawing lines is easy, but drawing the right ones is not. even for me it's tricky sometimes. But this is a real one.
I did not expect it to drop below the 13.000, this again shows a sign of weakness. However volume is low the last few hours, so it is difficult to say something with confidence now.
A drop below the 12.500 is a big sell signal, it will drop out of this channel AND it wil drop below that green area wich shows several but and sell movements. So if it moves towards the 13.700 i will ad some to my short position, otherwise i will just let it ride
Comment: Last update for the date, more educational.

Here you can see the small H&S i talked about a few hours ago, the right shoulder was tending to go up instead of turning down, this in combination with the very low volume, created a move in the other direction! Now the same thing is maybe about to happen, a bigger H&S, but again the right shoulder tends to do upwards and also in combination with very low volume. It's not exactley the same ofcourse, the Pattern is much bigger and it is making the right shoulder after a 600 point drop, also making a bearish flag pattern. I will talk about this again tomorrow.

Comment: So it was some what of anH&S this time, the bearish flag however was perfect and reached it's target also. The H&S should have dropped 200 points extra. But when you look at Bitstamp, it did reach it's H&S target, but the H&S was smaller! But everything happened on low volume!

Comment: Now we are seeing a simmilar H&S, caused by that strange 450 point spike down. Lets see what will happen now. Volume will probably stay low today and tomorrow, so be aware of allot of manipulation!!
Comment: Bitstamp chart here, but they are all showing similar patterns, seems like we are going towards the 14K level. The patterns suggest even somwhere in the middle of the 14K's. I will probably add around 13.800.

Comment: And it broke out with volume and conviction! I have not added yet because of the volume, It's almost certain it will reach the 14.500/14.700! It also broke out the decending trend channel from the 16K top. All short term bullish signs! I will probably go short around the 14.500.

Comment: Now the Bitfinex chart again, the target here is a bit higher, almost 15.000. At this point several resistances come together. If it breaks above this pink area, than i consider that the bearish momentum is over.

-The target of the H&S is around 15.000
-The bottom of the big bearish flag will be around 15.000 and should be a resistance now.
-That red area is also a resistance.

IF it breaks above the 15.00o and can even break the 16K, than for me the downtrend is over and we should expect a new ATH again!

Comment: It's on the neckline again, if it does not bounce up fast, it will probably make another big drop
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Since you are going short around 14.5k I assume that you don't believe that it will break 15k (or even 16k) and that the bearish momentum will be over?
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botje11 knutselwout
@knutselwout,
That's right, my 'long term' outlook is still bearish! It is showing some short term bullish signs, tripple bottom around 11.500, but so far i am seeing it as a decending triangle (lower highs). That's why 15K and even more 16K are important levels. The H&S you can see in my newest chart, is bullish but it does show some weakness, it has dropped 1000 points twice now after it broke out! still not reaching it's target. I will probably add around 14.200 and wont wait for 14.500ish. For now it still finds some support and is making short term higher lows. One must not ignore these signs!
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Thank you so much. I look forward to more of your views and inputs! :)
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botje11 88flavors
@88flavors, Your welcome :)
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Your continuous updates are much appreciated. I am relative new, trading for a year now, so your analysis and explanations are very educational and helpful. I can imagine it takes a lot of time but please keep it up!
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botje11 knutselwout
@knutselwout, Your welcome, and yes it does take a lot of my time. Last week i have had many new followers and likes, if that trend keeps up than i will probably also keep this up. Otherwise i will probably stop doing it. I also learned from other people starting 20 years ago, so i am trying to give some back now. Good luck
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Great analysis, thanks..
Looks like its just a tug of war at the moment so I prefer to keep out until we have some sort of direction established.
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botje11 Aamir66
@Aamir66, Yes it actually is, that's the safest way maybe. BCH becoming the biggest one or maybe Ripple since the last day, it's kind of a war like you say. Biggest casino in the world right now. I think even Las Vegas can feel a crisis now :) better to role your dice here than in the casino :)
But that feeling is normal in sideways action like the last couple of days. For me it's just a trade so long term direction is less important for me.
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Aamir66 botje11
@botje11, I'm bearish too, but I don't have the option to short so I would move majority of my investment to cash (USDT). Everytime BTC starts swinging downward, the bulls come in and absorb the volume and swing it the other way.. I have never seen such charts/random movements so I have difficulty predicting the direction. As it stands, I can only see bulls push this to the ATH or the market forces overpower and complete this correction. Personally, I find it dangerous for small fish to swim among whales, but I'm sure your expertise gives you confidence to trade in this storm.

And thanks for your analysis, do continue to putting out your updates here :)
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Thanks brother!
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