My targets are still below the 10K, but it should drop below the 13K within 24H. I have already closed half my short position yesterday at 13.650, because i dont want to risk to much in this hype. I could be adding again around 14.500/15.000
For strenght it should stay above the green line, if it drops below, than the last chance is probably 13.900 to get higher again.
In the first comment i mentioned those 2 drops that looked like a break of support, could now be described as bear traps. It is showing some real strengh now, with the spike up through the resistance at 14.500. It's not really getting sold, so i will close my other half if it get's near the 14.600 again, so i would still have around 1000 points profit, i see that the chances are bigger now for a rise in price than another drop. So this is a new sign for me and i have to act and adjust on it. It could still make a big drop, but than i would be hoping for itand ignoring what the recent price movement is suggesting.
No bounce at all, probably go lower now
Longer time frame shows support around 13.100 and last support around 12.000
Target perfectley reached, now lets see what it does, if it does not get above 13.500 again, expect another big drop
It failed again and immediately dropped 300 points, there was no support at that cirkled area to push it through the neckline
It's in that blue area, understand this is nothing more than a guess, based on things i have seen many times before, but it depends on how negative the momentum still is! Alts are also turning more negative now, dropping below support levels. So it could be different this time.
That trendline around 11.800 is the neckline of the BIG H&S i was talking about on 20 december. But it needs to drop at least 500 points below to say the nekline is broken. For now it's still within that green support area, lets see it it drops through or bounces of it. Chances are bigger it wil drop below, because it's hanging around that level and not making a real bounce up WITH big volume
The yellow area shows that this is a real trading channel, drawing lines is easy, but drawing the right ones is not. even for me it's tricky sometimes. But this is a real one.
I did not expect it to drop below the 13.000, this again shows a sign of weakness. However volume is low the last few hours, so it is difficult to say something with confidence now.
A drop below the 12.500 is a big sell signal, it will drop out of this channel AND it wil drop below that green area wich shows several but and sell movements. So if it moves towards the 13.700 i will ad some to my short position, otherwise i will just let it ride
Here you can see the small H&S i talked about a few hours ago, the right shoulder was tending to go up instead of turning down, this in combination with the very low volume, created a move in the other direction! Now the same thing is maybe about to happen, a bigger H&S, but again the right shoulder tends to do upwards and also in combination with very low volume. It's not exactley the same ofcourse, the Pattern is much bigger and it is making the right shoulder after a 600 point drop, also making a bearish flag pattern. I will talk about this again tomorrow.
-The target of the H&S is around 15.000
-The bottom of the big bearish flag will be around 15.000 and should be a resistance now.
-That red area is also a resistance.
IF it breaks above the 15.00o and can even break the 16K, than for me the downtrend is over and we should expect a new ATH again!
That's right, my 'long term' outlook is still bearish! It is showing some short term bullish signs, tripple bottom around 11.500, but so far i am seeing it as a decending triangle (lower highs). That's why 15K and even more 16K are important levels. The H&S you can see in my newest chart, is bullish but it does show some weakness, it has dropped 1000 points twice now after it broke out! still not reaching it's target. I will probably add around 14.200 and wont wait for 14.500ish. For now it still finds some support and is making short term higher lows. One must not ignore these signs!
But that feeling is normal in sideways action like the last couple of days. For me it's just a trade so long term direction is less important for me.
And thanks for your analysis, do continue to putting out your updates here :)