Is the BTC Breakout Bonanza Over? Yes - Clues Via Fib Analysis
I'm just going to go out on a limb here and say that the Bitcoin "Breakout Bonanza" is done. The party is over. It took me digging for over an hour to see this, but once I took a look at the 1-day candles, it was clear as mud (mud is as clear as Bitcoin predictions will ever be). We got rejected along the upper trend line of the macro movement, and this looks like the perfect pivot point to continue this bearish trend. To add to this muddy evidence, we see that the fast line is about to cross over the slow line on the Stochastic, which is solidly in the "over-bought" territory. Combine that with the big red candle forming, and it could mean confirmation of the pivot.
Is this a guarantee? No. Could Bitcoin pivot again and surge? Yes. How high it goes will be the next question, and we can consult the fibs to find clues. Here's what it is based on:
First off, we rejected at the top of the parallel trading channel. Forget all the descending triangles and flags and bird beaks. Just focusing on the top of that trading channel, we see a pivot point that would make a lot of sense. The less-so-obvious is the fact that we crawled up the Light Purple 4.236 Fib line that I constructed, with spooky accuracy. Notice how the red candle brings the price action right back down to the line. There's no more room to crawl up that line, so it's going to have to break through it. If we do, we could head for the Light Purple 4.618, and possibly bounce back up to the Big Red 4.618.
IF we goof around and continue this trading pattern within the boundaries of that parallel trading channel, we are going to possibly have a "Come To Jesus" meeting when we hit the Big Blue 1.618 line (and I'm praying for that scenario). I know everyone still thinks we are in a bull market, but I'm not convinced. I still think we're going to get jack-slapped into the mother of all corrections that runs into the fall, before the next REAL bull run. And it could start at that Big Blue line.
Up to now, I've been fairly accurate on calling the direction of the market. Well, since the time of getting it completely wrong after the all-time low when we had the 3 miraculous massive runs that were powered by Bitfinex printing Tether into oblivion. Notwithstanding, I've been calling a fairly good amount of movements. Maybe I'm overdue for another bad call, but I'm feeling my oats on this one.
Is this a guarantee? No. Could Bitcoin pivot again and surge? Yes. How high it goes will be the next question, and we can consult the fibs to find clues. Here's what it is based on:
- Big Blue 1.618 (November 12th, 2018 to June 24th, 2019)
Big Red 4.618 ( July 22nd, 2018 to December 13th, 2018)
Light Purple 4.236 (June 26th, 2019 to July 12th, 2019)
First off, we rejected at the top of the parallel trading channel. Forget all the descending triangles and flags and bird beaks. Just focusing on the top of that trading channel, we see a pivot point that would make a lot of sense. The less-so-obvious is the fact that we crawled up the Light Purple 4.236 Fib line that I constructed, with spooky accuracy. Notice how the red candle brings the price action right back down to the line. There's no more room to crawl up that line, so it's going to have to break through it. If we do, we could head for the Light Purple 4.618, and possibly bounce back up to the Big Red 4.618.
IF we goof around and continue this trading pattern within the boundaries of that parallel trading channel, we are going to possibly have a "Come To Jesus" meeting when we hit the Big Blue 1.618 line (and I'm praying for that scenario). I know everyone still thinks we are in a bull market, but I'm not convinced. I still think we're going to get jack-slapped into the mother of all corrections that runs into the fall, before the next REAL bull run. And it could start at that Big Blue line.
Up to now, I've been fairly accurate on calling the direction of the market. Well, since the time of getting it completely wrong after the all-time low when we had the 3 miraculous massive runs that were powered by Bitfinex printing Tether into oblivion. Notwithstanding, I've been calling a fairly good amount of movements. Maybe I'm overdue for another bad call, but I'm feeling my oats on this one.