Bitcoin technical analysis. BTC-USD on January 29, 2019

If we consider the possibility of a positive scenario for Bitcoin, then we can be in the lower part of the market cycle and we see the formation of a downward wedge, a pattern that indicates the possibility of further upward movement. Now we can observe a false breakdown (bear trap), but it is worth noting support areas that can hold the price well, and a further rebound can overrun the test of the upper edge of the wedge, the breakdown of which will allow the market to move higher up to the main resistance now. This scenario may take a longer time than the graph shows, but the potential to rebound to the Fibonacci levels of 0.618 and 0.786 remains in force and should not be neglected. Since most of the “crowd” is waiting for a drain, the market maker can expand the market without this drain, it is always worth remembering that very often the scenario of which is least expected. There may still be a few months of uncertain price fluctuations, but in the long run, Bitcoin shows very good potential.

Trade active:

We see that the price rebounds a little, the range below has demonstrated good support, if it continues to hold the market pressure, we will probably be able to head for the upper edge of the falling wedge.
If we consider such a positive scenario, then its implementation may occur within the next week, and the next weekend may demonstrate a noticeable bullish momentum.
At present, the market is very dangerous and unpredictable, this scenario is not a call to action, but a look at the positive possibility of the near future.

Trade active:

January was difficult to trade because of the constant and gradual decline in volatility. Traded, in fact, inside the tapering wedge. Further, there is practically no place to narrow down to the price and no later than the next 2-3 days should the wedge exit. Potentially at $ 500-600 - the width of the base of the wedge. February for all technical and fundamental indicators should be much more volatile than all the last months.

Comment:

Globally, the next couple of months, Bitcoin looks pretty bearish. But now we are out of the descending wedge at its upper edge, which adds a positive, for which we should not go below the red support marked on the chart. The red, extreme candlestick on a daily basis is a breakdown correction, such a rollback is quite logical and natural, the main thing is that the market finds support at the current level and we can get a stronger rebound. If this does not happen, we will go to the support area and get close to the recent minimum of 3343 (BitMEX), the breakdown of which is likely to lead to a further test 3000. Serious and important support was previously over the area around 3680 (BitMEX), which we will eventually As a result, we broke through and bargained noticeably lower, which globally leaves the market very bearish. If there is no rebound and we consolidate below, then it is worth waiting for further downward movement and past bottoms around 3125 (BitMEX) can easily be pierced. Do not forget about the possibility of studs, with a panic sale, we can see the price and 2800 and 2500, bitcoin is unlikely to be able to gain a foothold below, but it is easy to feel with our candle tail.