markoshust

Just for fun -- don't kill the messenger

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Just for fun -- don't kill the messenger
Comment: quite scarily, i'm also counting full subwaves on every elliott wave here. a detailed count of the last wave sends BTC to 4500
Comment: Final fifth wave sends BTC to either a 6k double bottom or 4800 retracement
Comment: I'm under the impression that in order for this entire theory to be correct, subwave 4 of this final 5th wave would need to holdup and not cross wave 1 scenario of around 8700. so, we are about at the point of no return right now, and should know imminently. i have to think that if we can't cross 8700 soon, this scenario is fully in play, and we are going DOWN DOWN DOWN to at least 6k.
Comment: I honestly think the double bottom of a 6k bottom is the most likely scenario. i think the market wants to turn around, but we haven't 100% gotten there yet. a double-bottom would also validate this elliott waves count, and signal a very strong support and likely turnaround of the market.
There's room for a contrarian signal based on sentiment.Most people are bearish now, and if that crosses the 90% level, it doesn't take much to have a reversal.What everybody expects doesn't happen in the markets. Looking for a truncated wave 5 or a slight lower low below 6k. I favor the view of Tom Lee that the cycle is turning for btc. He put out a bullish view and target of 91 k for 2020, and said that mining is not profitable below 8000. Miners are a constant supply that holds prices back.Also the falling wedge is common in cryptos and it points to 5500 6000
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markoshust eleutron298
@eleutron298, I agree, I think things will turn around but not before a bit more blood. I also agree with your truncated wave 5 theory, I dont think we will make it to 4.5k unless the 5.8k support line doesn't hold for some reason (timely FUD perhaps - we haven't heard tether news lately). I'm liking the double bottom theory. I'm not worried about miners, the majority of miners be mining regardless, unless there is a sustained downturn.
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Messengers do not make fun. They only carry the message of the master. The only messenger who makes fun is the FAKE MESSENGER and his message also FAKE tho.
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markoshust msahin5656
@msahin5656, ha, definitely agree. just my own unbiased analysis here.

if you notice, there seems to be very large support around the 3500 area from mid-September (interestingly, we also have some support around the 0.5 fibonacci retracement level in mid-November). RSI is not nearly as low as it could be for a bearish market.

i believe the "death cross" is also very symbolic. i think we may test the death cross resistance of 10,700 before continuing the drop. however, if that happens and we can't peak through that level, i think we may show additional bearish divergence on the RSI chart from the March level to the point that happens, perhaps confirming an additional drop, and this elliott waves count.

everything is adding up for me. i think the most important part of this chart is that 0.382 possible retracement level, which is also the previous low around 6700. if we make it down there, and don't double bottom, watch out.
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