Emanance
Long

Fun with Fibs.

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Building on an idea I had while working on my previous chart (https://www.tradingview.com/v/NRS4U5CA/), I have found what I'll describe as a ‘Mirrored Fibonacci Sequence’ (marked by the blue & orange zones) in the time scale of Bitcoin’s price discovery. I call it ‘mirrored’ because the fibs oscillate backwards, then forwards on each consequent bubble.

The red & green zones are from observations made on a previous study (https://www.tradingview.com/v/NRS4U5CA/). They mark out a consistent pattern that can be observed across Bitcoin's entire price history. These red & green time frames are important as they synchronise closely with the mirrored time fibs (blue & orange). IT should be noted, the current green zone we are trading in ends on the 20th of August 2014, & if this theory holds up, should mark the very beginning of the next parabolic phase.

I’ve left my longterm trend lines in for those who might want to speculate on what price these fib time frames might offer longterm. Albeit they are not my primary focus on this chart.

Perhaps the most notable feature for me is how much larger the bubbles are when two 1.618 fib lines meet up (June 2011 & April 2013).

Credit to munkeefonix for his excellent time corrected historic Mt Gox data:
BTC Prehistoric v1
. For those interested the long term support is strung between $0.07 on the 14th October 2010 & $13.50 on the 13th of January 2013.

Update 19th August 2014

The current timefib we are now in is just on 3 days off completion. I originally calculated the 20th of August as the day price will reach base camp, using the daily chart . But after fine tuning the scales on the 2hr             chart back from the the November 2013 ATH             I've recalculated the 22nd of August 2014 as D-Day. That said, going back over previous bubbles the margin of error is as much as a week! So any time between now & end of August is good time to pitch the tents at base camp. I think the answer to the question of 'when' this market makes it's way to the next parabolic phase will boil down to two things: Whether a highly capitalised minority still believe Bitcoin has the potential to put in a new all time high. And whether that minority lie in wait, fearful that other highly capitalised individuals will take the first mover advantage from them. In my opinion we still have the time & price range for another leg down. That might even allow the price to put in a highly pivotal H&S reversal. Popcorn at the ready, I'm going to enjoy the show :)
Maddie
2 years ago
Thanks for sharing your idea,
I think we might see the up rally in around 20 days!

A new big rally in a few weeks from now?

Reply
Emanance Maddie
2 years ago
I've got the price leaving base camp sometime around the 19th - 21st. That's where the green zone ends we are currently trading in ends.
+1 Reply
No1
2 years ago
32 thumbs up already... great work !!
+2 Reply
Emanance No1
2 years ago
Thanks :)
Reply
SvilarovNikola
2 years ago
Thanks
Reply
ChartArt
2 years ago
Interesting. Thanks for your idea, emanance. I created another version based on your chart - with the upper trend line adjusted to older historic prices. Please zoom out to see the start of the trend lines.

snapshot



Zoomed out version - Screenshot:

snapshot
+2 Reply
ChartArt ChartArt
2 years ago
Something went wrong with my first chart link. Here is my version of your chart:

One Secret Chart Of Bitcoin Bulls
+2 Reply
Grinny
2 years ago
We just broke your lower longterm trend line...
+2 Reply
Grinny Grinny
2 years ago
Wow, I get downrated for posting a fact...?
snapshot
Reply
Coinsidering PRO Grinny
2 years ago
Well, it's pretty difficult to paint a line that long on the $ exactly... We didn't cross it in my chart, though...
Reply
Anima87
2 years ago
So you are indicating a 7k USD BTC forthe next rally? - sometime in October?
Reply
Emanance Anima87
2 years ago
As I said in the description, trend lines are not the primary focus of this study. What I was looking for was some kind of time signature to suggest when the next bubble might form. What I found was 2 separate time sequences that have repeated across the entire price discovery.

The first is a simple sequence that starts at the bubble's peak (start of red zone '0%') reaches a half way mark in the technical bottom (red zone meets green zone '50%') then finishes just before the next parabolic price increase (end of green zone '100%').

The second is a little more complex. It is based on the Fibonacci ratios '1 : 1.618'. So the blue zone measures '1.0' & the orange zone measures the additional '0.618'. For reasons that I am still trying to deduce, these ratios appear to repeat in symmetry across the entire price discovery.

So when I apply these rules on the current bubble I get a date of the 20th of August 2014 for when the price starts to move parabolic again (end of the current green zone). Then applying the 1 : 1.618 Fibonacci Ratio we have a parabolic phase that goes until the 30th of January 2015. No one knows what the price will do this next stage. Many bears are hoping for a smash down to $260 or lower. Many bulls are hoping for a moon shot of over $5000. I'm just trying to pick the timing, & I won't know if I'm right until 20th or 21st of August.
Reply
Maddie
2 years ago
Did it just broke?
Reply
HerSerenity Maddie
2 years ago
The commonly known peak of the April rally is 266, not 259 which is used in this chart (Bitstamp and MtGox didn't have the slightest difference in price back then).
See my latest idea for a 266-based all-time channel:

This Fall Is Serious: Bitcoin
Reply
HerSerenity HerSerenity
2 years ago
Left panel, lower golden upward sloping line -- should serve as support for the next dip.
Reply
Anima87 HerSerenity
2 years ago
you seem very pessimistic
Reply
HerSerenity Anima87
2 years ago
Please have a look at the notes as well. Pessimistic? Maybe philosophical pessimistic, yup :)
Reply
Coinsidering PRO HerSerenity
2 years ago
I think she means the lower uptrend line, not the top line ;)
Reply
HerSerenity Coinsidering
2 years ago
The lower line in this chart is a parallel of the upper resistance line, touching price on 2013-01-13
Reply
Emanance HerSerenity
2 years ago
Quo Vadis? To be crucified again...Upside down!
I can only imagine you are hinting at the risks one would take shorting the market in it's current position ;)
Reply
HerSerenity Emanance
2 years ago
Excuse me I did not mean to bring my ridiculously wishful propaganda idea to your site but I cba to delete all the objects just for that single line either :D
Regarding the current position -- both buying power and bottom yet to be found, accum/dist uptrend broken with the recent drop. If this doesn't bounce hard and soon I can hardly believe we're up for anything good this month.
+1 Reply
Anima87 Maddie
2 years ago
Seems like the downtrend continues.. from what i know, it's the guys behind ethereum cashing out bitcoins from their IPO
-1 Reply
Emanance
2 years ago
The current timefib we are now in is just on 3 days off completion. I originally calculated the 20th of August as the day price will reach base camp, using the daily chart. But after fine tuning the scales on the 2hr chart back from the the November 2013 ATH I've recalculated the 22nd of August 2014 as D-Day. That said, going back over previous bubbles the margin of error is as much as a week! So any time between now & end of August is good time to pitch the tents at base camp. I think the answer to the question of 'when' this market makes it's way to the next parabolic phase will boil down to two things: Whether a highly capitalised minority still believe Bitcoin has the potential to put in a new all time high. And whether that minority lie in wait, fearful that other highly capitalised individuals will take the first mover advantage from them. In my opinion we still have the time & price range for another leg down. That might even allow the price to put in a highly pivotal H&S reversal. Popcorn at the ready, I'm going to enjoy the show :)
snapshot
+2 Reply
Anima87 Emanance
2 years ago
I know it's old, but whats your idea on your chart as of now that it seems we don't follow the trend?
Reply
Emanance Anima87
2 years ago
Thanks Anima87. The main function of the chart was to try & identify a key ratio patterns, that might of suggested 'when' to expect market reversals, based on previous tops & bottoms. The historic trendlines are there merely as a guide, as disconcerting as it is to see the supporting one now broken. That said trendlines are only ever drawn on a chart to eventually be broken, as you can see on this chart:

snapshot


As you can see the newest purple trendline, isn't technically speaking a confirmed trendline, having only a single point of contact with the price, but it certainly holds the potential to be a new uptrending support line.
+1 Reply
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