The red & green zones are from observations made on a previous study (https://www.tradingview.com/v/NRS4U5CA/). They mark out a consistent pattern that can be observed across Bitcoin's entire price history. These red & green time frames are important as they synchronise closely with the mirrored time fibs (blue & orange). IT should be noted, the current green zone we are trading in ends on the 20th of August 2014, & if this theory holds up, should mark the very beginning of the next parabolic phase.
I’ve left my longterm in for those who might want to speculate on what price these fib time frames might offer longterm. Albeit they are not my primary focus on this chart.
Perhaps the most notable feature for me is how much larger the bubbles are when two 1.618 fib lines meet up (June 2011 & April 2013 ).
Credit to munkeefonix for his excellent time corrected historic Mt Gox data: . For those interested the long term support is strung between $0.07 on the 14th October 2010 & $13.50 on the 13th of January 2013 .
Update 19th August 2014
The current timefib we are now in is just on 3 days off completion. I originally calculated the 20th of August as the day price will reach base camp, using the . But after fine tuning the scales on the 2hr chart back from the the November 2013 ATH I've recalculated the 22nd of August 2014 as D-Day. That said, going back over previous bubbles the margin of error is as much as a week! So any time between now & end of August is good time to pitch the tents at base camp. I think the answer to the question of 'when' this market makes it's way to the next parabolic phase will boil down to two things: Whether a highly capitalised minority still believe has the potential to put in a new all time high. And whether that minority lie in wait, fearful that other highly capitalised individuals will take the first mover advantage from them. In my opinion we still have the time & price range for another leg down. That might even allow the price to put in a highly pivotal reversal. Popcorn at the ready, I'm going to enjoy the show :)
The first is a simple sequence that starts at the bubble's peak (start of red zone '0%') reaches a half way mark in the technical bottom (red zone meets green zone '50%') then finishes just before the next parabolic price increase (end of green zone '100%').
The second is a little more complex. It is based on the Fibonacci ratios '1 : 1.618'. So the blue zone measures '1.0' & the orange zone measures the additional '0.618'. For reasons that I am still trying to deduce, these ratios appear to repeat in symmetry across the entire price discovery.
So when I apply these rules on the current bubble I get a date of the 20th of August 2014 for when the price starts to move parabolic again (end of the current green zone). Then applying the 1 : 1.618 Fibonacci Ratio we have a parabolic phase that goes until the 30th of January 2015. No one knows what the price will do this next stage. Many bears are hoping for a smash down to $260 or lower. Many bulls are hoping for a moon shot of over $5000. I'm just trying to pick the timing, & I won't know if I'm right until 20th or 21st of August.
Regarding the current position -- both buying power and bottom yet to be found, accum/dist uptrend broken with the recent drop. If this doesn't bounce hard and soon I can hardly believe we're up for anything good this month.
As you can see the newest purple trendline, isn't technically speaking a confirmed trendline, having only a single point of contact with the price, but it certainly holds the potential to be a new uptrending support line.