It has come to my attention that those viewing this chart on low resolution monitors or mobile devices are not able to see this study across all 3 bubble formations. If this is the case please press the minus button (-) at the bottom of this chart, just above the time line, to zoom out to see all the detail. If this doesn't work, you can also try dragging the chart around with your mouse.
My primary objective with this chart is to display the coincidence on the 2 previous bubbles each having their technical bottom formations at exactly the half way mark between the corresponding bubbles 'Peak' & consequent 'Base Camp' just before starting the parabolic climb that signifies the beginning of the following bubble. When I apply this same formula to study the current bubble formation we are now trading in, I calculate it will be time to leave base camp to begin our long parabolic climb to the next peak on August 20th 2014.
What is the next logical color? Yes: Red
I have published so many charts here You can ignore them all, but I sadly think they show us that the next move is down. The green uptrend already happened as your chart shows.
But if the free market doesn't work like a perfectly planned and executed strategy and if the market is chaotic not always following the same pattern but twisting and turning, then we are leaving the overall uptrend (which we are still on since many years) and the next color is red.
I can't spot any tractions here, the only anomaly is the extended downtrend and a downwards breakout where a bubble top should have been.
So the long-term trend lines of the past may not have been support at all, but pure myths, whereas we have yet to reach the real long-term trend line.
I have to agree that the "long-term" part of this trend line people are talking about is fishy, it's primarily based on a flash crash bottom, nothing long-term about it. There are only three real significant long-term trend lines, two of which are already broken. Following the historic pattern, it's now going for the last one:
As you can see from the channel, if we go any lower now, it's safe to assume it will drop a good deal more and, unless reversal finally happens, to hit the red line which would be the $360 double-bottom area.
Of course, sorry if I was a bit too direct. What I was trying to say is that technical tools like channels obviously cannot be 'potential' (=future, right?) as they're solely applied on the past; either they're being verified in the present and can be considered valid for future analysis (that's the case with the grey line you're reffering to as "may not have been support at all", isn't it?), or not.
Everything else is irrelevant for predictions and discussions that go beyond the level of astronomical objects. Don't take this to a personal level, it wasn't my intention neither.
> I'm saying that the long-term channel could still be in formation. Whereas before, we rested a long-term trendline on a single point and tried to line it up with everything that happened since, the top of the parallel channel could indicate where the long-term trend line actually is.
Totally agreed, it was just the part about trend lines being myths that bugged me. I guess what you meant was the definite "long-term" label, and I'm with you in that regard.
I'm not saying this is exactly how it's gonna play out or that there is not a chance for bubble this year... I'm just starting to get tired of these two trendlines on Bitstamp log chart (no offense, I appreciate your input).
Moon, of course but couple of spins around orbit first (and then who knows, Saturn has many moons too:D)