BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
With so much bear talk in the market at the moment I thought it would be timely to illustrate how recent price movements, when correlated historically against time frames of previous price bubbles, are perhaps more bullish than ever.

It has come to my attention that those viewing this chart on low resolution monitors or mobile devices are not able to see this study across all 3 bubble formations. If this is the case please press the minus button (-) at the bottom of this chart, just above the time line, to zoom out to see all the detail. If this doesn't work, you can also try dragging the chart around with your mouse.

My primary objective with this chart is to display the coincidence on the 2 previous bubbles each having their technical bottom formations at exactly the half way mark between the corresponding bubbles 'Peak' & consequent 'Base Camp' just before starting the parabolic climb that signifies the beginning of the following bubble. When I apply this same formula to study the current bubble formation we are now trading in, I calculate it will be time to leave base camp to begin our long parabolic climb to the next peak on August 20th 2014.
flibbr PRO
2 years ago
moon
+2 Reply
LastBattle flibbr
2 years ago
Mars.
+5 Reply
Emanance flibbr
2 years ago
New improved version of this chart. Now with added fibs :)
Fun with Fibs.
+2 Reply
ChartArt
2 years ago
Looking at the chart you posted, I see from left to right:

Green
Red
Green
Red
Green

What is the next logical color? Yes: Red

I have published so many charts here
The real reason Bitcoin is doomed in Summer 2014
You can ignore them all, but I sadly think they show us that the next move is down. The green uptrend already happened as your chart shows.
Reply
LastBattle ChartArt
2 years ago
No.
Green, purple, red.

So = stable rise, explosive rise, dump. Next logical colour is purple.
+2 Reply
ChartArt LastBattle
2 years ago
If we are lucky again it's purple.

But if the free market doesn't work like a perfectly planned and executed strategy and if the market is chaotic not always following the same pattern but twisting and turning, then we are leaving the overall uptrend (which we are still on since many years) and the next color is red.
Reply
Emanance ChartArt
2 years ago
Echoing LastBattle, I think Bitcoin is soon going to move into it's next parabolic phase. I agree with your sentiments that we are not taking the same approach this bubble to prior bubbles, having crashed through a number of longterm support lines, such as the SR support line. Generally the price has to move down into these troubling lows to shakeout weak hands. Personally I haven't yet seen the price do anything that has me concerned we won't put in a new all time high before the end of this 2014. We might be moving in a protracted fashion this time, but that is to be expected with new trading instruments now available on many exchanges, & the likely hood of silent accumulation by institutional investors. The great thing about this protraction is that when we finally do get a new ATH it might surprise even the bulls.
+1 Reply
HerSerenity Emanance
2 years ago
"I think Bitcoin is soon going to move into it's next parabolic phase" +1
Reply
pumapunko PRO ChartArt
2 years ago
The next logical colour is purple... The colour of the moon!
Reply
HerSerenity
2 years ago
Could you explain why the last red dump was siginificantly longer and has 3 instead of 2 waves? Why is the moon so late?
Reply
HerSerenity HerSerenity
2 years ago
Has The Next Phase Of Bitcoin
Reply
Emanance HerSerenity
2 years ago
If you look carefully you will notice that the time frames for each of these bubbles are more protracted that the prior. I expect this protraction to continue as Bitcoin's price discovery matures.
Reply
HerSerenity Emanance
2 years ago
Nah, peaks are exactly 235 days apart, and exactly 235 days after the last top the recent drop out of the low-volume flatline happened, kicking off the current downtrend we're in. Corresponding downtrend breaks happened after 235 days as well; this time however we got a third wave instead of bottom+moon.
I can't spot any tractions here, the only anomaly is the extended downtrend and a downwards breakout where a bubble top should have been.
Reply
Emanance HerSerenity
2 years ago
Also, I put the waves down to the markets response to the 2 big narratives that affected price throughout this bubble: Gox's closure & China (not) banning Bitcoin.
Reply
MoonTrader
2 years ago
Since most long-term positive trend lines were broken awhile ago, this provides a basis for the formation of a new one that lines up perfectly with the upper boundary of the upward channel you drew. Very interesting, indeed. I think the fact that the bears are shouting so loud only strengthens this idea.
Reply
HerSerenity MoonTrader
2 years ago
So, um, long-term support break = instant reversal below old support and formation of a new one? Doesn't make a lot of sense to me tbh. Also the reason bears like me are roaring is probably their shorts before anything else :P (350 BTC from $640 here)
Reply
Emanance HerSerenity
2 years ago
Here is the data used to generate my longterm support line on my green red & purple chart at the top of this page to 'munkeefonix':
BTC Prehistoric v1

Bears still have a lot of work to do to get us below that :P
+1 Reply
MoonTrader HerSerenity
2 years ago
I'm saying that the long-term channel could still be in formation. Whereas before, we rested a long-term trendline on a single point and tried to line it up with everything that happened since, the top of the parallel channel could indicate where the long-term trend line actually is.

So the long-term trend lines of the past may not have been support at all, but pure myths, whereas we have yet to reach the real long-term trend line.
Reply
HerSerenity MoonTrader
2 years ago
From what you're saying your not a technican and thus probably wrong here -- there's no thing like a potentially forming long-term channel, mythical bogus supports. Historic price movements defined a pretty solid fibo-channel and that's all we got,.

I have to agree that the "long-term" part of this trend line people are talking about is fishy, it's primarily based on a flash crash bottom, nothing long-term about it. There are only three real significant long-term trend lines, two of which are already broken. Following the historic pattern, it's now going for the last one:
Long-term trend lines + channel


As you can see from the channel, if we go any lower now, it's safe to assume it will drop a good deal more and, unless reversal finally happens, to hit the red line which would be the $360 double-bottom area.
Reply
MoonTrader HerSerenity
2 years ago
What do you mean there's no such thing as a potentially forming channel? What is a channel before it's well-defined? A potential channel. Don't insult my intelligence.
Reply
HerSerenity MoonTrader
2 years ago
> What is a channel before it's well-defined? A potential channel
Of course, sorry if I was a bit too direct. What I was trying to say is that technical tools like channels obviously cannot be 'potential' (=future, right?) as they're solely applied on the past; either they're being verified in the present and can be considered valid for future analysis (that's the case with the grey line you're reffering to as "may not have been support at all", isn't it?), or not.

Everything else is irrelevant for predictions and discussions that go beyond the level of astronomical objects. Don't take this to a personal level, it wasn't my intention neither.
Reply
MoonTrader HerSerenity
2 years ago
This whole idea was based on a potentially forming channel, since the presumption was that it would touch the bottom line and turn up. Is there something wrong with speculating that that may be the case? If so, criticize the guy who made the idea, not me.
Reply
HerSerenity MoonTrader
2 years ago
I have to apologise, I obviously didn't read your posts with sufficient attention and missed the whole point :/

> I'm saying that the long-term channel could still be in formation. Whereas before, we rested a long-term trendline on a single point and tried to line it up with everything that happened since, the top of the parallel channel could indicate where the long-term trend line actually is.

Totally agreed, it was just the part about trend lines being myths that bugged me. I guess what you meant was the definite "long-term" label, and I'm with you in that regard.
+3 Reply
MoonTrader HerSerenity
2 years ago
Apology accepted.
+1 Reply
MoonTrader HerSerenity
2 years ago
We have one touch on the bottom and two on the top, meaning a second bottom touch would be confirmation of the channel. It's all speculation, but that's what we do as technicians, right? We speculate based on the past and try to decide what is most likely to happen in the future.
+1 Reply
Maddie MoonTrader
2 years ago
I agree with you !!!
I had the same idea a few days ago...
A new big rally in a few weeks from now?

The beginning of the new rally could be around the 18th of august.

Hope you like it :)
Reply
Fahrenheit
2 years ago
Perhaps people forget that not every bitcoin bubble was longer than the one before. We might be in for a good wait. Since the MTGOX charts are not available anymore on TW have a look at this: http://i.imgur.com/sio5boE.png

I'm not saying this is exactly how it's gonna play out or that there is not a chance for bubble this year... I'm just starting to get tired of these two trendlines on Bitstamp log chart (no offense, I appreciate your input).

Moon, of course but couple of spins around orbit first (and then who knows, Saturn has many moons too:D)
Reply
Emanance
2 years ago
It has come to my attention that those viewing this chart on low resolution monitors or mobile devices are not able to see this study across all 3 bubble formations. If this is the case please press the minus button (-) at the bottom of this chart, just above the time line, to zoom out to see all the detail. If this doesn't work, you can also try dragging the chart around with your mouse.
Reply
Emanance
2 years ago
My primary objective with this chart is to display the coincidence on the 2 previous bubbles each having their technical bottom formations at exactly the half way mark between the corresponding bubbles 'Peak' & consequent 'Base Camp' just before starting the parabolic climb that signifies the beginning of the following bubble. When I apply this same formula to study the current bubble formation we are now trading in, I calculate it will be time to leave base camp to begin our long parabolic climb to the next peak on August 20th 2014.
Reply
NicoNaylor
2 years ago
Nicely done
+1 Reply
No1
2 years ago
one of the best charts.. thx for sharing...
Reply
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
India
España
France
Italia
Brasil
Россия
Türkiye
日本
한국
Home Stock Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out