I am currently running my from the low set Sep 15, 2017 of 2975.01 to the high Dec 17th, 2017 of 19891.99. The 61.6% retracement of this move is 9437, which was just failed today. The market failed the of this move, 11433, and was never able to close above this level for two consecutive days. This, to me, says rejection and the beginning of the 5th and last wave of this retracement.
Fundamentally, the news of the Japanese whale selling approximately 17.5% of his holding and looking to liquidate more should send shockwaves through anyone with a pulse on this market. There has also been other major newsflow in the past few days which has triggered an uptick in selling pressure. This news, namely Japanese exchange crackdown, binance bot hack, and bitmex going down for a bit, along with other news such as major crypto twitter accounts being shadow suspended, has only added to uncertainty. Markets do not like uncertainty. Markets will look to flush uncertainty out by reaching for the bottom until the uncertainty is contained and quelled.
Markets should find some brief support around 8500 level but I am looking for them to retest the lows. There should be a further support around 7500 level. A settlement below 6900 would be a signal we are probably going to break the low set Feb 6th , 2018 of 5873. The next support levels below 5873 would be 4500, and 3000. Beneath that is 2500, 1800, 1200 and 800. Resistance levels to look out for, in case bitcoin rallies, are 10300, 11433 and then 13430.
I am looking for bitcoin to ultimately head to 3000 level within the next month. The low of 2975.01, set on Sep 15th, 2017 needs to be held. If that level is not held the market could be in for a rough ride going forward for a while. I think bitcoin will hit 3000 and then rally hard and consolidate between 4500-6000 for several months. There may be a retest of the lows but that isn't necessarily a requirement of confirmation. The retest could end up stopping much higher than 3000. I think by the end of the year, bitcoin will be at least back around 9400 levels and possibly much higher depending on global macro economic outlook, concerns, and lightning network implementation.
Clues a bottom are in place would be for other major cryptocurrencies to be making major lows on the same day as bitcoin , for the news flow to be turning around to be decidedly , or some other news such as government intervention in other markets sparking fears.