Hello,
We have a few outcomes to discuss today for BTC. In my previous post (long-term outlook) i show a macro bear sentiment and continue to remain bearish today. However, in the short(er) term we have a few possible outcomes to discuss and money to be made in all scenarios.
1. Wedge Breakout to $20-25k (Blue, Most likely scenario)
In this scenario, btc would oscillate within the wedge, with the highest likelihood of breaking downward, then our breakout target is $20-25k depending on where the breakout occurs. RSI is mid-range with initial decline and MACD is flatlining signaling a likely cross.
💰 Short btc to 25k with SL at $40k, then move down and tighten. Likely reverse into buy once SL hit.
2. Bull Run to $45-50k (Green, Possible but second likely )
I would love to see this happen, even though I remain bearish on the weekly timeframe. I believe this would most likely be a bull trap, but also an opportunity for swing traders.
In this scenario, btc would break above the green line (40k). This resistance level is (1) the previous significant high, (2) the D200EMA and (3) a mental resistance mark. A confirmation above this resistance would give a great bull pump. RSI is mid-range with initial decline but has ample room to go up. MACD is flatlining and signaling a likely cross, but this can be reversed and has plenty of upward opportunity since we trade below the histogram.
💰 Buy btc with SL at $38k, then move up and tighten SL as btc moves to 45-50k. Likely reverse into short once SL hit.
3. Bear Flag to $12,000 (Yellow, Possible but third likely)
I know its the clickbait title, but this is still a very real possibility. My previous btc article shows the long-term possibility of a decline to the 20-25k mark but further drop is possible; i'll explain. (1) Historically, btc bear markets decline 80-85% which would drop our 65k ATH to 13k-10k. (2) Weekly RSI (currently 47) has a lot of downward opportunity with a historical low point of 20. (3) Weekly MACD has crossed and is in a steep downward trend. While this will most likely won't stay steep, it could take a lesser angle and continue its downward trajectory. Overall, If this scenario takes place then it will occur over time unless major news provides a catalyst to move the market quicker.
💰 Short btc to 15k with SL at $40k, then move down and tighten. Likely reverse into buy once SL hit.
Keep in mind
We are looking at key support and resistance levels to provide confirmation of scenarios, we do not know for certain which scenario it will take but we will be prepared. As always, we're trading off the predictive probability of these scenarios and nothing is set in stone.
This analysis is focused on the short term using the 4HR candles.
Not financial advice,
-G
We have a few outcomes to discuss today for BTC. In my previous post (long-term outlook) i show a macro bear sentiment and continue to remain bearish today. However, in the short(er) term we have a few possible outcomes to discuss and money to be made in all scenarios.
1. Wedge Breakout to $20-25k (Blue, Most likely scenario)
In this scenario, btc would oscillate within the wedge, with the highest likelihood of breaking downward, then our breakout target is $20-25k depending on where the breakout occurs. RSI is mid-range with initial decline and MACD is flatlining signaling a likely cross.
💰 Short btc to 25k with SL at $40k, then move down and tighten. Likely reverse into buy once SL hit.
2. Bull Run to $45-50k (Green, Possible but second likely )
I would love to see this happen, even though I remain bearish on the weekly timeframe. I believe this would most likely be a bull trap, but also an opportunity for swing traders.
In this scenario, btc would break above the green line (40k). This resistance level is (1) the previous significant high, (2) the D200EMA and (3) a mental resistance mark. A confirmation above this resistance would give a great bull pump. RSI is mid-range with initial decline but has ample room to go up. MACD is flatlining and signaling a likely cross, but this can be reversed and has plenty of upward opportunity since we trade below the histogram.
💰 Buy btc with SL at $38k, then move up and tighten SL as btc moves to 45-50k. Likely reverse into short once SL hit.
3. Bear Flag to $12,000 (Yellow, Possible but third likely)
I know its the clickbait title, but this is still a very real possibility. My previous btc article shows the long-term possibility of a decline to the 20-25k mark but further drop is possible; i'll explain. (1) Historically, btc bear markets decline 80-85% which would drop our 65k ATH to 13k-10k. (2) Weekly RSI (currently 47) has a lot of downward opportunity with a historical low point of 20. (3) Weekly MACD has crossed and is in a steep downward trend. While this will most likely won't stay steep, it could take a lesser angle and continue its downward trajectory. Overall, If this scenario takes place then it will occur over time unless major news provides a catalyst to move the market quicker.
💰 Short btc to 15k with SL at $40k, then move down and tighten. Likely reverse into buy once SL hit.
Keep in mind
We are looking at key support and resistance levels to provide confirmation of scenarios, we do not know for certain which scenario it will take but we will be prepared. As always, we're trading off the predictive probability of these scenarios and nothing is set in stone.
This analysis is focused on the short term using the 4HR candles.
Not financial advice,
-G