RegisteredFlexOffender

Bearish case for BTC?

Short
COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Please note that I understand these are not properly mapped Elliot waves and they were not intended as such, just to illustrate a rough pattern that has occurred twice in a row.

On the 1 day, RSI has made a lower high. DMI shows a slowing of the bearish trend. MACD slightly positive. On the Bollinger bands, it's been hugging the top for a while now.

Historically when BTC corrects, it's nearly always 40% on the big ones, +/- only 1-2%. This would put the price of BTC at approx. 4500. To maintain the trend line, we'd need to stay much closer to 5000. Using fibonacci retracement levels, the 618 fib is around 4700.

A buy for me would be in the blue box marked on the chart. Somewhere between 4500 - 5100. With the upcoming BTC fork happening, this makes things a little hazy on the long term predictions, but unless there's a surge that puts us above the ATH, I'd be selling and waiting to buy in much lower than the current price. Whether this happens before the fork or not, I'm unsure. I'm leaning towards it dropping and then beginning to recover using the momentum of hard fork accumulation.
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