When Trump closes the door with Europe (and more)
This is going to be an expensive lesson about derivatives correlation, macro economics and international politics for Crypto Investors.
Trump halted travel with europe 10 hours ago, and since then Bitcoin dropped 30%. 30% in a few hours. Safe haven to hedge against an economic crash.
First China had a ban, Second Europe.
I remember seing his announcement 10 hours ago and wanting to short the SnP but I just went to sleep.
Why did the market drop so long AFTER the announcement?
I guess the ban itself didn't change much to the global trends actually...
During the trade war with China there was so much volatility, and he didn't even start the trade war with Europe he was planning yet. Just imagine XD.
Europe also collapsing financially now that UK left (which were the second biggest fools paying for all the other countries).
Crypto investors: "aha when there will be uncertainty investors will flock to the Bitcoin safe haven".
Reality: "haha ye good one, investors use ultra volatile gamble assest in times of turmoil" -25% in 4 hours.
Most crypto "investors" could not care less about the rest of the world, all they look at is crypto in isolation, all they care about is "price went up"
You had a pretty big warning here, that plus all the rest:
Every thing is dying
Even gold dropped today, might not be corelated
The cripple ponzi scheme down 30% today, lowest price in 3 years. Boy we have some people to roast.
Tron my favorite pump & dump went wrong, made a new low too :)
Alts as a whole have not made a new low thought, only the most questionnable ones
There are some exceptions, some coins went way up, some coins that are only listed on 1-2 small exchanges. Definitely not pump & dumps.
"The last hope" trendline is lost. Crypto investors can just draw a new line next time BTC bounces, and then the price will innevitably fall below it again, and repeat...
Dollar versus emerging market doing great still :)
Currencies (regular) moving more than usual also, but it's not as bad.
VIX is mooning, highest since 2008. Highest in the entire life of Bitcoin.
What happens to Bitcoin when the VIX spikes? Bad things happen to Bitcoin.
And of course....
RIP.
Bitcoin under the china trade war dropped 85%. With the EU trade war another 85% to be lost?
Then add to this the hit china economy took with covid19...
Then add to this Opec break, and the Oil war (the economy has been fully driven by Oil for 200 years)
Then add all the communists, rebels, terrified climate activists, miners in the red...
But seriously, I don't know where Bitcoin will bottom or if it will survive, but I know the odds of the price going down for a few more years are really high.
If all crypto exchanges close, and BTC is hard to sell, and the price is under $100... This is what I would call zero.
I'd say it would bottom anywhere from 0 to 2000 my best guess.
The price halving is 2 months away, this will be fun.
Now that the conditions are for the first time, truly awful for Bitcoin...
I wonder what happens when the global mood is not to take big risks and gamble and money stops flowing and people are scared for their livelyhoods, there are no safe easy investments, every one trying to survive and protect their capital, lawmakers control tightens up, and so on...
ZERO.
Trump halted travel with europe 10 hours ago, and since then Bitcoin dropped 30%. 30% in a few hours. Safe haven to hedge against an economic crash.
First China had a ban, Second Europe.
I remember seing his announcement 10 hours ago and wanting to short the SnP but I just went to sleep.
Why did the market drop so long AFTER the announcement?
I guess the ban itself didn't change much to the global trends actually...
During the trade war with China there was so much volatility, and he didn't even start the trade war with Europe he was planning yet. Just imagine XD.
Europe also collapsing financially now that UK left (which were the second biggest fools paying for all the other countries).
Crypto investors: "aha when there will be uncertainty investors will flock to the Bitcoin safe haven".
Reality: "haha ye good one, investors use ultra volatile gamble assest in times of turmoil" -25% in 4 hours.
Most crypto "investors" could not care less about the rest of the world, all they look at is crypto in isolation, all they care about is "price went up"
You had a pretty big warning here, that plus all the rest:
Every thing is dying
Even gold dropped today, might not be corelated
The cripple ponzi scheme down 30% today, lowest price in 3 years. Boy we have some people to roast.
Tron my favorite pump & dump went wrong, made a new low too :)
Alts as a whole have not made a new low thought, only the most questionnable ones
There are some exceptions, some coins went way up, some coins that are only listed on 1-2 small exchanges. Definitely not pump & dumps.
"The last hope" trendline is lost. Crypto investors can just draw a new line next time BTC bounces, and then the price will innevitably fall below it again, and repeat...
Dollar versus emerging market doing great still :)
Currencies (regular) moving more than usual also, but it's not as bad.
VIX is mooning, highest since 2008. Highest in the entire life of Bitcoin.
What happens to Bitcoin when the VIX spikes? Bad things happen to Bitcoin.
And of course....
RIP.
Bitcoin under the china trade war dropped 85%. With the EU trade war another 85% to be lost?
Then add to this the hit china economy took with covid19...
Then add to this Opec break, and the Oil war (the economy has been fully driven by Oil for 200 years)
Then add all the communists, rebels, terrified climate activists, miners in the red...
But seriously, I don't know where Bitcoin will bottom or if it will survive, but I know the odds of the price going down for a few more years are really high.
If all crypto exchanges close, and BTC is hard to sell, and the price is under $100... This is what I would call zero.
I'd say it would bottom anywhere from 0 to 2000 my best guess.
The price halving is 2 months away, this will be fun.
Now that the conditions are for the first time, truly awful for Bitcoin...
I wonder what happens when the global mood is not to take big risks and gamble and money stops flowing and people are scared for their livelyhoods, there are no safe easy investments, every one trying to survive and protect their capital, lawmakers control tightens up, and so on...
ZERO.
Comment:
Every crypto "expert" bullish since Q4 2017
"Bitcoin hit my target of 6000/5500 etc perfectly!"
What a joke.
They gave up trying to call those weak hands shakeout and "accumulate cheap" and now when the price crashes straight through their long entries with no bounce whatsoever they jsut cry victory as if they "called the drop".
It is looking alot like this:
And then....
Followed by ...
"Bitcoin hit my target of 6000/5500 etc perfectly!"
What a joke.
They gave up trying to call those weak hands shakeout and "accumulate cheap" and now when the price crashes straight through their long entries with no bounce whatsoever they jsut cry victory as if they "called the drop".
It is looking alot like this:
Comment:
I made a script to see exactly how bad things are for Bitcoin.
And they are VERY BAD. Won't lie, I am so happy ^^
Hurray! I hope zero soon.
And they are VERY BAD. Won't lie, I am so happy ^^
Hurray! I hope zero soon.
Comment:
Something is terribly wrong with Bitmex. HAHA!
Comment:
Another example of trendlines importance with BTC
Alts tested the lowest point of the whole bear market:
Look away a few minutes and the price is up 40%, down 10%, etc...
Alts tested the lowest point of the whole bear market:
Look away a few minutes and the price is up 40%, down 10%, etc...
Comment:
I have a compiled a few screenshots of previous drops.
What appears more likely is the price being sideways for a couple of weeks before heading back down. Halving is in 2 months probably price will have dropped and bounced by then no?
The most interesting to watch of course is a big drop this monday buuut I do not think it is the most likely based on the limited stats we have on BTC I would say 80% odds price just sideways at least 1 more week.
There's exceptions, usually when it re-drops fast that's when it goes up alot after (small sample size)
There has been drops followed by very lengthy bounces then uptrend, most of those are pre-2013
What appears more likely is the price being sideways for a couple of weeks before heading back down. Halving is in 2 months probably price will have dropped and bounced by then no?
The most interesting to watch of course is a big drop this monday buuut I do not think it is the most likely based on the limited stats we have on BTC I would say 80% odds price just sideways at least 1 more week.
There's exceptions, usually when it re-drops fast that's when it goes up alot after (small sample size)
There has been drops followed by very lengthy bounces then uptrend, most of those are pre-2013
They are probably shorting the VIX at the same time.
Disgusting people.
Bitcoin may stabilize for a while if things calm down, but no new ath obviously, just stay in the 3000-13000 range for a few more months.
Bitcoin only goes up when the whole world is ultra bullish, any obstacle and it crashes so.... might still go down in the next months.
Long term is still down anyway. Magical money that grows on trees is not a thing.
Simple logic...
Bitcoin is about to face its first real bear market.
If it does not happen now, it can't be far away.
FED won't print 20 trillion... Even if they do it will kill every thing so...
Time's up.
An era has ended. A decade of going up.
If you want to buy Bitcoin wait for the buffet indicator to be low.
It's going to be like 10 bucks a coin by then :D
Probably just dies and disappears but gamblers love buying a $10 lottery ticket so I can see it have rallies still. Depends if there's still exchanges around which is likely to not be the case, no exchanges that won't run away with your money to be more precise.
Might not be able to make money when BTC hits the ground because of all this, but being able to say "told you so" is nice too :)