I have a short term bearish, yet overall bullish view on BTC.
So far we haven't been able to break down or break up from the range we are in between ~41k and ~30k.
The black trendlines that make a triangle in the middle of this range are charted off the weekly line chart. I do not think these will be relevant as I think we are just in a rectangular consolidation. It is simply charted there for perspective.
The 1.618 (fibs measured from 2017 top to the last bearish cycles bottom) lines up exactly with monthly support at 29k.
The 2.414 lines up with over head resistance.
I believe the 1.618 and 2.414 will be the key level to watch in the coming weeks to months.
We also have a death cross looming on the daily.
There is always a chance we break up again. I think that it will be very hard to predict how BTC will be acting inside this range so short term perspective will likely always be gutted by the volatility we are seeing.
If we follow how BTC has acted in its previous 4 year cycles then BTC would top out sometime in Oct, Nov, or Dec in 2021.
My prediction:
I believe BTC will head back to the bottom of this range. It will appear that we will break down past 30k. Stopping out leverage longs, trapping leverage shorts, while shaking out the weak handed retailers who are afraid to lose their investments. Then a rise to 35k in the middle of the range before heading back down for the last touch at 30k.
After that we will slowly rise back towards the 2.414 and break up towards new all time highs somewhere between $72-$88k at the end of the year before 2022.
So far we haven't been able to break down or break up from the range we are in between ~41k and ~30k.
The black trendlines that make a triangle in the middle of this range are charted off the weekly line chart. I do not think these will be relevant as I think we are just in a rectangular consolidation. It is simply charted there for perspective.
The 1.618 (fibs measured from 2017 top to the last bearish cycles bottom) lines up exactly with monthly support at 29k.
The 2.414 lines up with over head resistance.
I believe the 1.618 and 2.414 will be the key level to watch in the coming weeks to months.
We also have a death cross looming on the daily.
There is always a chance we break up again. I think that it will be very hard to predict how BTC will be acting inside this range so short term perspective will likely always be gutted by the volatility we are seeing.
If we follow how BTC has acted in its previous 4 year cycles then BTC would top out sometime in Oct, Nov, or Dec in 2021.
My prediction:
I believe BTC will head back to the bottom of this range. It will appear that we will break down past 30k. Stopping out leverage longs, trapping leverage shorts, while shaking out the weak handed retailers who are afraid to lose their investments. Then a rise to 35k in the middle of the range before heading back down for the last touch at 30k.
After that we will slowly rise back towards the 2.414 and break up towards new all time highs somewhere between $72-$88k at the end of the year before 2022.