jitenjaipuria

explaining the structure of a market bottom!

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
this idea will try to explain market bottom characteristics that will help you get an idea of what lies ahead in the world of crypto.
i will also try to explain how to wade through murky waters ahead with simple logic
firstly we will try to learn some lessons from 2014-2015
the same logic applies to any stock/commodity by the way!
Comment: forget the upper comment
tradingview changed the snapshot icon location
this snapshot says what i wanted to express in previous comment
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Comment: i dont trade bitcoin and neither get time to track its every move. i hope you were cautious at resistance level which my chart had drawn and noted the divergence on hourly chart as we reached there
Comment: I had warned that BTCUSd will fall lower when it was at 6900 -7000 levels.....now i see the opposite......the bollinger band width on weekly chart is at an all time low.....there is a strong bullish divergence on rsi as well as stochastic.......the bloody thingay have just posted a wave 1 and 2 .....most people during wave 2 feel markets will go lower.....but they aren't going to.......the manipulators might cause another 100-200 dollar swing to squeeze out people.....but this bull cycle we might cross 10k.......so my suggestion is buy and hold.....don't leverage with these manipulators.......bitstamp is your friend......bitfinex and bitmex are enemies.....
Comment: The bullish sentiment will get nullified only if markets go lower than 5800.....this is why I am saying to not leverage...... The risk is 6400 to 5800......the reward is 6400 to 10000.....most professional traders will take it and go long
Comment: The bear flag needs to break somewhere
Comment: The bear flag broke yesterday. Now one last leg remaining. The markets need an rsi more than 40 to kick up
Comment: BTCUSd is 6495 with divergence on one hour chart (bearish) and chaikin money flow touching zero.....prepare for fall
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See this chart...bearish divergence on rsi , chaikin money flow gone to zero. Double top.....this position is unsustainable......crash alert
Comment: the last crash alert took prices from 6587 to 6380
the alert still holds true
Comment: seems like BTCUSD wants to rise once more
Comment: a major move is impending
more likely it will be a downmove but upmove is not ruled out
suggested strategy is outlined
so far we correctly guessed two sharp but false downmoves
now will come the real sustained move
Comment: We delivered what we promised and warned about

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bitcoin is going to show a major move soon. the only question is : is it now or few more months later! so far bears still have upper hand but things will reverse soon
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Comment: The daily chart predicts a fall.....I guess everyone is exhausted.... Bulls as well as bears ...... Me too!....lolz......this currency was so exciting last year......seems like dead wood these days......anyways......let's see
Comment: so btcusd registered a 100 point fall after last update. its getting interesting now. hourly chart predicts a rise. weekly chart predicts a rise. but daily and 3 hourly chart predict a fall. markets are still upto their tricks and major card has still not been played out. i would again suggest a limit buy order at 6700 and sell order at 6500 to catch the meaty move. i keep posting updates on smaller moves as and when i get time to see charts as a hobby, but mostly i dont get time to see moves every minute
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Just see supports and resistance and book your profits!
Comment: If you place your limit orders carefully with automated alerts you can actually use very high leverage with confidence. For example I would have confidently placed a limit sell order at 50x on 6536 on bitmex (which was an intermediate pibot point on hourly chart) and closed it at 6400 with good guaranteed returns. Don't be too greedy. There are still mixed signals for a strong rise on weekly charts which obviously would manifest in coming weeks. So don't be a permanent bull or bear. One needs to keep changing stance depending on what lies ahead. If this down move truncates above 6300 then its a strong bullish sign.
Comment: Sorry the pivot was 6558. It's marked on the chart above. Trading view has automated indicator for pivots
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Annnnnnnnd market bounced again after going just below 6400....exactly as I expected.......most amateur retail traders don't understand the power of limit orders and lose money hoping a trend would continue forever
Comment: another bear flag......more downside pending on hourly chart....but any short position here has low reward as strong 6200 resistance approaches.....at most one can hold position upto 6300 safely......or else just wait out for market makers to make the move
Comment: somehow my gut feel says markets will drop to 6200......then make a false move up and then drop to 5800 again........just guessing.......i dont have a TA to support this claim........but daily chart stochastic and RSI isnt looking good at all......lot of downward potential there.........bears look tired but bulls look more battered for now
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So pivot formed at 6324 and we are back up again on hourly chart....so a short at 6400 was low reward as expected......now hourly chart is up....weekly is up......daily sill not good......there is hidden bullish setup being formed here
Comment: another bearish setup getting formed.......so this was basically a false move up
Comment: So the markets made a move while India was sleeping. This is interesting. So here is one piece of direct advise which I didn't write in my last update but explicitly wrote in previous posts. Whenever you feel a setup is being formed ...then look at nearby pivot points ...for example in the previous post image showed 6540 and 6429 as pivots......then simply place a limit buy order above higher pivot and limit sell order below lower pivot......if you do this.....your loss making trades will become nearly zero......this is an approach which many professional traders follow....those who are more experienced......novice ones like to straight away jump in with their bets and lose a lot of money as BTCUSd can make large moves......the same approach I have been highlighting in previous updates......just didn't explicitly mention in last update.
Comment: everybody is bullish. but there are so many red flags that i see!
Comment: interesting!!!!
smaller time frame charts have begun showing evidence of bull failure and a downward channel is now recognizable
even if bulls are to fail we cant predict anything beyond few 100 point fall
Comment: now the one hour chart has picked up bull failure
the signature of high frequency trading algos is visible
so is the bullish pennant theory now negated
Comment: my final two words.......just place a buy order at 6600 and sell order at 6450.....one of them going to get filled for good !
Comment: they may try to engineer a false pump which will not last
must read for anyone who wants to know what lies ahead
there is another reason why i am not hopeful of crypto bullrun
will post in a chart below
comments are welcome
https://medium.com/@proofofresearch/warn...
Comment: the bulls just dont want to give up!.....watch for break of the downward channel!
Comment: more traders beginning to see the channel i drew hours ago
Comment: temporarily there is a long signal. predicting markets is one thing.....going with the flow is another
Comment: logic with wave count explained here
After such an impressive move, i'd guess this 'flag' will last a while to catch the breath. Perhaps it will form another ascending channel and provide an entry point for the next move down
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When the bottom eventually arrives, likely it will be quiet

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Interesting ! Yes, it's clear that during recent months there's more selling volume but, comparing to January, price doesn't fall in proportion. Do you believe we have already reached the bottom ?
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Sorry I'm new to the market, six months. You are explaining what the bottom of the market is like. OK. And have we found the bottom or are we going to fall more? Help me understand!
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BrianCisco eduardokaykedasilva
@eduardokaykedasilva, I interpreted this post to the understanding of how to identify the bottom of various waves. I see him using RSI indicators and others which can help train someone to spot buying and selling opportunities before it swings back in the other direction. The sideways type of market BTC is in provides opportunities to predicatively trade as opposed to full bullish or full bearish sentiments where calling the top or bottom can be more challenging.
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