COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Just wanted to throw down a quick scenario;

There's a few things that have been bothering me throughout this recent uptrend. Firstly volume , it's been very far between with large pumps followed by a total drop off, more concerning to me is that these pumps happened at the same time of day twice, my rule of thumb for Bitcoin patterns is that twice is a coincidence, three times and everyone notices, the fourth time never happens.

Secondly I don't like the number of harmonics failing over the last few days, of course you cannot expect even most harmonic patterns to break as expected but they are often a good indicator of buyer and seller behaviour so I dislike the number that have turned around with quick spikes of volume which then disappears again.

Where we are right now we should drop if you took things at face value, this strikes me as too obvious and when combined with these injections of volume it makes me wonder why we aren't seeing the same selling pressure rather than a slow bleed out. Then we have the head & shoulders idea, I don't like relying on these patterns as once again it's just too obvious to spot, in my mind head & shoulders patterns are more of a natural formation in retail driven markets, which of course this is in theory, but there's nothing at all about this entire upwards move that shouts retail buyer. Retail buyers do not buy all at once at the same time on consecutive days then stop all together.

This leads me to the possible play that I am leaning towards right now - We will invalidate the H&S by making a higher right shoulder, we will then create another flag before rising again to meet our trendline . Only then do I think we will see some serious selling volume enter just as buyers believe we are about to break upwards, this can be followed by a retest of support around the $6,150 area... after this point I am not even going to guess what will follow from there, and anyone claiming they are not employing a degree of guess work is most likely full of sh*t.

This is of course entirely conjecture without confirmation and could be invalidated in the next few hours, but there's something rather odd about the last 24 hours price movement and this is making me lean towards the above scenario having a good chance of playing out.

Hope this has helped give some ideas if nothing else, as always do your own thing and never trade purely based on what you've read on here regardless of how many VIP members they've suckered in.


Jul 06
Comment: I realise that tradingview loves squishing charts - so here's a snapshot

Jul 06
Comment: Very intereresting development

My personal thoughts if you're considering a long right now is to wait to see what the reaction at $6,550 will be

Comments



This limp noodle on the 3 day is just too creepy for a long at this particular time. Could pretty much kick back and check back in a month!
Reply
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