$BTC CRITICAL Bull and Bear Scenarios (Triggers!) $ETH $XRP $XLM

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
I'll give you both the bull and bear scenarios. Both are very severe but confirmation for either is still far away..

Let's do the big bear scenario first..

Arrows here point to your head and shoulder scenario. I know in my last mega BTC post I said once BTC trades above 17.5k the head and shoulders is negated and we likely go deep into the 20k range. But as you know we failed right when 17.5k got near making this look alot like a head and shoulders as it stands.

Confirmation for head and shoulders to downside - 4 hour close below the neckline, around about 13k is what I see as the nail in the coffin for BTCs parabolic run and we likely enter a prolonged bear market, supports 11.5k, 10k, 8k, 5k, 2.5k areas. Don't know if they hold or not but probably can play bounces there

What makes me lean towards this overall? Well I would've expected the bulls to show up when BTC printed below the daily 50ema, we didn't see much follow through on that and that was really a good chance for bulls to show themselves. Each bounce has gotten weaker and weaker signaling less participation, also a potentially bad sign

Next the consolidation scenario..
Comment: The arrow on this trendline points to the downtrend BTC has been in ever since it hit and failed the 17.5k area.. IF BTC can get an hourly close above the trendline then we will likely enter a consolidation phase between that trendline and the upper resistance trend. This would continue the 'healthy' BTC consolidation phase from the 20k run a month ago.

Indicators are less than reliable in situations like this but it is worth noting the 4 hour RSI reached near oversold levels for the first time since the last monster run in BTC.. again not reliable but I did take note of that.

Lastly, the Mega Bull Scenario

If BTC has a daily close above the upper resistance trend line with the arrow on it with decent follow through I would be leaning towards huge upside... fib extensions put us well into the 20k range but this is never an exact thing

So those are the levels I'm watching. This is a no trade zone for me personally as confirmation to anything isn't really in sight and trading choppy markets is an account killer in my experience.

***My opinion, Not TA***
To me as long as we live above the 13k death line, I lean towards healthy consolidation overall. Yes its violent with massive swings but thats what we get with large numbers, when you look at percentages it actually lines up well with Elliot Wave theory (which I actually don't trust much at all) but hey some people have made livings trading that way for decades and I can't negate that. The only problem is 99% of elliot wavers are god awful at it... well 99% of TAers are less than ummm 'accurate', Not here to talk **** on others doing TA but keep that in mind. As soon as a 4 hour close occurs below the neckline I lean heavily bearish and I would assume alot of traders will start taking short positions and it the self fulfilling prophecy adds to the downwards momentum.

Weekly candle currently forming an inside bar, a good signal here for direction is whichever way this inside bar breaks the prior weekly bar is going to probably very likely indicate our general direction. Might not get resolution here for a week or two but this is extremely important in my eyes.
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