Following the idea of the Wyckoff accumulation that has been discussed by trading community last month.
Now it looks like clear Wyckoff accumulation, we had the spring. We flipped the Q3 opening which was also the middle of the range (35.5K), retested it (at 36.5K when the price rallied to 40K then bounced on 36.5K, which is above the 35.5K middle of range, so it should be considered as a sign of strenght.)
What happened and why so much people got trapped ?
We printed 8 daily green candle since the 21rst of July, which can be considered the spring of the Wyckoff accumulation.
People called for price below 28K because of the wicks, but if you look at chart in LINES instead of CANDLES, you can see that we indeed had a spring, even if it was a weak spring.
But note that not all accumulation phase have spring, if you look at the second schematic of accumulation, there is no second spring (THERE IS NO SECOND BEST - ahum sorry ) https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method
Wyckoff accumulation should be analysed checked in LINE, or without the wicks .
Se we are currently at the SOS in the 39K - 41K range, option expires today in around 6h.
If there is no price reaction, there will be no FUD to worry about for most trader.
Let's see if price will markup and if we enter phase E.
Last thoughts:
We can't still confirm 100% that this is a Wyckoff accumulation we have to see if the price breaks 42K resistance, and starts trading in the 42-52K range, with 46K being the first strong resistance and middle of next range.
But looking at the momentum, how price bounced at 36.5K and price being nicely held/squeeze at top range resistance, it is very likely to see a price markup, and I would orient my trading strategy for longs according to these elements.
INVALIDATION:
What would invalidate this idea ?
If we break below 36.5K (last support) I would consider this invalidated.
If we break 35.5K (Q3 opening) I would consider this REALLY invalidated.
If we break 39K (low of SOS range) I would consider this MAYBE invalidated, but still remain confident in this idea, I would be looking at the price action on 1H - 5MN to see if structure looks bearish or bullish, and would try to add to my long position according of PA.
Now it looks like clear Wyckoff accumulation, we had the spring. We flipped the Q3 opening which was also the middle of the range (35.5K), retested it (at 36.5K when the price rallied to 40K then bounced on 36.5K, which is above the 35.5K middle of range, so it should be considered as a sign of strenght.)
What happened and why so much people got trapped ?
We printed 8 daily green candle since the 21rst of July, which can be considered the spring of the Wyckoff accumulation.
People called for price below 28K because of the wicks, but if you look at chart in LINES instead of CANDLES, you can see that we indeed had a spring, even if it was a weak spring.
But note that not all accumulation phase have spring, if you look at the second schematic of accumulation, there is no second spring (THERE IS NO SECOND BEST - ahum sorry ) https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method
Wyckoff accumulation should be analysed checked in LINE, or without the wicks .
Se we are currently at the SOS in the 39K - 41K range, option expires today in around 6h.
If there is no price reaction, there will be no FUD to worry about for most trader.
Let's see if price will markup and if we enter phase E.
Last thoughts:
We can't still confirm 100% that this is a Wyckoff accumulation we have to see if the price breaks 42K resistance, and starts trading in the 42-52K range, with 46K being the first strong resistance and middle of next range.
But looking at the momentum, how price bounced at 36.5K and price being nicely held/squeeze at top range resistance, it is very likely to see a price markup, and I would orient my trading strategy for longs according to these elements.
INVALIDATION:
What would invalidate this idea ?
If we break below 36.5K (last support) I would consider this invalidated.
If we break 35.5K (Q3 opening) I would consider this REALLY invalidated.
If we break 39K (low of SOS range) I would consider this MAYBE invalidated, but still remain confident in this idea, I would be looking at the price action on 1H - 5MN to see if structure looks bearish or bullish, and would try to add to my long position according of PA.
Price went easily toward the 40-46K range and break it to the upside on the 42-52K range.
It got rejected a 50K, but the movement from 40K to 50K was relatively quick and it is now consolidating above 46K in the middle of the range, which is quiet healthy.
So we are still on the 40-52K range, above 46K.
Now in the short term we will probably know which scenario plays out:
1 (bullish). Price rally back higher in the 46-52K range and breaks higher, then next level is the 52-64K with 58K as key middle point of the range. 54K as first target.
2 (bearish). Price needs more time to digest this rise, more consolidation needed in the 42K - 52K range, with 46K as first huge support (middle of range). And godlike support at 42K.
I don't expect price to fall close to 42K but if we see price falling under 46K I would heavily look at 42K level and whether if it can go close to it or not and add massively to my portfolio.
As long as price is above 46K I am fully oriented toward the bullish scenario.
September is reputed for bad price action on BTC, so we might just be consolidating with a possbility of pullback to 42K in preparation for October / November rally.
But September might not be a bad month so we should be prepared for more high and in the current scenario with low funding fee and no overleveraged and an inflationary macro environment I prefer to buy aggressively.
Ex: I added to my position on 46K dip the 27 AUG.
--> I do this because most of my buy target are always frontrun, and I think most people are thinking like me so we should see higher highs.
I am always a greedy bear usually, waiting for the best deal at floor price, but this market doesn't want the price to fall right now it seems!
When we will see crazy amount of funding fees such as in March / April / May I will be much more conservative in my aggressive buy.