Cryptosomniac

Finding the light in the death cross!

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Good morning friends!
Let's get to the BTC/USD 1D chart. As you can see I've illustrated the price and % gains since last year and the subsequent pullback of those gains. This is just to show you that if you have not experienced massive corrections, that is how they work in BTC .The most recent gain you see is one that stems from July 2017 from ~$1800 level to December's high of ~$19000 with a percentage gain of 979%. Now the correction to this is the large bearish downtrend we've been in since coming down from that high. Where the correction ends exactly, no one knows. As you can also see over the last 6-8 months we've formed somewhat of a large Head & Shoulders pattern (a bearish pattern ). These patterns do not have to be perfect and so it can be applicable in this BTC/USD scenario. We are now in the near completion of the right shoulder which would indicate that after this completion there will be further downside. We're given a few clues through indicators, charts, past supports etc. but no one can accurately predict exactly where we will bounce. Let's see where our support levels stand:

1. Rising trend line since 2017, currently we hover right on it at the $7700-7800 marker
2. The next support created March 18 ~$7250
3. The critical support and bounce created Feb 6 ~$6000
4. Last but not least the accumulation and reactionary zone from last year around the $4200 marker

If we happen to complete the H & S, there may be further capitulation as the $6000 buyers from Feb 6th may accelerate the drop by getting stopped out. Creating a drop to the $4000-5000 range for scenario 4. We'd also have the completion of the death cross around the first week of April which could spark fear in the market. All in all, I'd look to the BUY ZONE as listed in the chart if you feel this is the bottom. But we must first see how supports 1 - 4 play out.

In my view 3 and 4 scenario are more likely than 1 and 2.

We cannot control the market only react to it appropriately. Stay tuned for our next updates!

Thanks for listening everyone! Happy Trading!
Comment: Scenario 1 and 2 are now invalidated as we mentioned.

Waiting on Scenario 3 and 4 to play out.
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