DanV
Long

Bitcoin In Double Zigzag Correction - Bullish Bias

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Bitcoin             In Double Zigzag Correction ( Bullish Bias) - exploring it's likely upside

Earlier this year I outlined 4 possible scenarios (see chart link below) of which the 1 & 2 were theoretically possible but did not really feel high high likelihood of developing. I then explained this in later February in live webinar. This leaves us with 3 & 4 which in general are similar except where the upside correction ends and if there was just a single zigzag at the time or as it now appear a double zigzag in prospect.

In subsequent published chart (see link below),I outline a possibility that as long as we held above the minor rising trendline and 380 it has a chance of moving up to 480 – 500 area.

So now that we held the 380 and minor up trendline referred to above breaking above 500 I think the price action is little more clearer which I present here as follows:

Technical Summary
1. Taking a look at the price chart with 3 day period, note the double zigzag decline from Nov 2013 to Jan 2015 low appears to have completed larger zigzag . From where we are progressing in possible double zigzag retracement move to the upside shown in up trend channel.
2. On Second chart also of 3 day period, we can see interesting price interacting with the Schiff Pitchfork lower parallel and 50% line of the median and lower parallel shown with wave count in which we are progressing in second minor zigzag of wave ((y)) which commenced from low of 16th January and in final swing wave “c”.
3. If the above is true then we could have full 5 wave move with the wave 1 close to completing in the area of 550 being approx 38.2% retracement of the entire decline from Nov 2013 to Jan 2015.
4. On this 3 day time frame chart we also note possible divergence could develop in the MACD and even RSI .
5. On the daily time frame chart above, you can see that we have minimum requirement in that wave c is close to completing minor 5 wave and could top out in the 550 zone noted above. However, provided we hold above $490 - $500 level, I think it is more likely, that we will get full larger 5 waves which could lead the price to peak around $670 and even spike into 700 -720 area.
6. This double zigzag completion would open the prospect of another large bearish reversal that could result in decline to 200 -220 area though more likley to go and retest the Jan 2015 low or make new lower low.

Other features and details are explained in:
Youtube video link - https://youtu.be/0V6-QYfus_I
Google+ Link -

Conclusion: Provided we hold above $490 - $500 zone on pull, look for larger 5 move up to nest Fib level ( 61.8% retracement ) at around $670 with possibility that spike high could form into $700 - $720 area.

Therefore in the intermediate term a bullish bias appropriate.

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me the most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views. 

For those who appreciates my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others and follow me on my Youtube channel and Google+ . If you have an alternative idea then please be constructive and share for all to learn from. 

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. 

DanV 
danv-charting.com
http://www.danv-charting.com
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChJVIJir7nymD9J3ZWoal-w/feed
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#E4bnOJSWcO1zDjBG
UPDATE: 13th June: We are developing 5 wave move ip as described in the main chart of which we could have competed wave iii and consolidating in wave iv. Upon completion of this, wave v will commence and could reach 725 - 775.
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wow, looking like wave V is completed and the price is experimenting a retrocese after reach 778 in Bitstamp? can you update what you expect will happen from now? Thanks Dan!
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Thanks. It seems that we have the double zigzag possibly complete and expect a noticeable sideways or contracting triangle type of congestion or deeper retracement for wave 'X' to form triple zigzag. Otherwise we might now be in early reversal pattern.

Though I still favour another swing higher may be to coincide with a peak around halving or soon after. Beyond that it is not clear to see where it might go right now.

In the chart you will note we have (in magenta) AB=CD target at 61.8% retracement of the entire decline from Nov 2013 high to Jan 2015 low.
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+1 Reply
HI Dan, I'm curious what's your current take on Bitcoin?
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UPDATE 6th June 2016: With the price action since publishing this chart, it seems there is an alternative intermediate wave count which I should point out now as it seems appropriate. That is since Jan 2016 low we have counted initial cycle as rising wedge or leading diagonal wave 'a' in blue followed by 5 wave up.

Instead the entire rise from Jan 2016 low might just be double zigzag each with minor zigzag as shown in the RSI on the chart below. If that is correct we might have reached local high for this swing and and breakdown below 560 would confirm followed by larger pull back for developing 3rd zigzag but would not count on it for now.
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Possible Alternative Count (4th June 2016): Suggests that we could have just formed an intermidiate high and at least a retracement is due (ie a limited upside for this cycle)
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I watched the video as I was subscribed :D Thank you for this
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DanV MOD BuyBitcoins
My pleasure.
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BullV! Thanks for analysis
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You are welcome
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