Earlier this year I outlined 4 possible scenarios (see chart link below) of which the 1 & 2 were theoretically possible but did not really feel high high likelihood of developing. I then explained this in later February in live webinar. This leaves us with 3 & 4 which in general are similar except where the upside correction ends and if there was just a single at the time or as it now appear a double in prospect.
In subsequent published chart (see link below),I outline a possibility that as long as we held above the minor rising and 380 it has a chance of moving up to 480 – 500 area.
So now that we held the 380 and minor up referred to above breaking above 500 I think the price action is little more clearer which I present here as follows:
1. Taking a look at the price chart with 3 day period, note the double decline from Nov 2013 to Jan 2015 low appears to have completed larger . From where we are progressing in possible double retracement move to the upside shown in up trend channel.
2. On Second chart also of 3 day period, we can see interesting price interacting with the Schiff lower parallel and 50% line of the median and lower parallel shown with wave count in which we are progressing in second minor of wave ((y)) which commenced from low of 16th January and in final swing wave “c”.
3. If the above is true then we could have full 5 wave move with the wave 1 close to completing in the area of 550 being approx of the entire decline from Nov 2013 to Jan 2015.
4. On this 3 day time frame chart we also note possible divergence could develop in the and even .
5. On the daily time frame chart above, you can see that we have minimum requirement in that wave c is close to completing minor 5 wave and could top out in the 550 zone noted above. However, provided we hold above $490 - $500 level, I think it is more likely, that we will get full larger 5 waves which could lead the price to peak around $670 and even spike into 700 -720 area.
6. This double completion would open the prospect of another large reversal that could result in decline to 200 -220 area though more likley to go and retest the Jan 2015 low or make new lower low.
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Conclusion: Provided we hold above $490 - $500 zone on pull, look for larger 5 move up to nest Fib level ( ) at around $670 with possibility that spike high could form into $700 - $720 area.
Therefore in the intermediate term a bias appropriate.
Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps me the most but could be completely wrong. Therefore as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
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Though I still favour another swing higher may be to coincide with a peak around halving or soon after. Beyond that it is not clear to see where it might go right now.
In the chart you will note we have (in magenta) AB=CD target at 61.8% retracement of the entire decline from Nov 2013 high to Jan 2015 low.
Instead the entire rise from Jan 2016 low might just be double zigzag each with minor zigzag as shown in the RSI on the chart below. If that is correct we might have reached local high for this swing and and breakdown below 560 would confirm followed by larger pull back for developing 3rd zigzag but would not count on it for now.