***This Idea was charted on a Log-scale chart***
On August 17 2015, with months of a deterioration of Bitcoin's price, everyone's confidence in Bitcoin waned as BTC price fell below $200 to a record low of $160. Almost a year beforehand, Bitcoin was almost 10 times its price, and some people that had bought at that time as well as the Hodlers were starting to think that this might actually go to ZERO. Many cashed out their long-term investments after months of waiting for the price to rebound. Doesn't this situation that I have described feel like the current state of Bitcoin today?
Well if you said yes, then you are right because that situation that had happened IS what is happening right now! In fact, look at the previous low that BTC visited. What was the date? August 13? Well well well, what an interesting observation. The low back then compared to the previous low is almost exactly 2 years apart. That is not all, Ever since the price dipped to $150 all those years ago, Bitcoin has been finding support on one of the the largest trend lines in the history of Bitcoin. The trend line has not been violated since $200. (I indicated the purple trend line on the chart above)
Let's walk through this step by step. I will be referencing the chart with pictures below.
I believe, as most people here do that Bitcoin has still not hit a true bottom. We might have a small increase in price for a while (which I have indicated above), but I think the bear market will continue to the $5000 mark. This also will hit a key level in the fib channel (the rainbow looking regions) as well which increases the likelihood of the revisit happening. So why is the Fib channel so important? Let's get into that.
So by applying the Fib channel in the same direction as the Huge bull trend that was drawn, it gives some interesting observations:
- The first is that the price highs and lows both interact with the fib channel. This is seen at the red and purple arrows that I have indicated on the chart. This picture only shows the beginning of this trend. Take a look at the rest of 2017 below:
As you can see, the fib channel interacts with the highs and lows of Bitcoins price very very accurately. Not only that, the Fib extension lines pass through the $20k BTC mark perfectly(the navy blue region). So this fib channel in fact could've predicted a $20k BTC reversal as early as June 2016.
Now how long did this bull run take? Exactly 845 days. The price shortly after starting correcting and then the bear market started.
Looking above, as my prediction shows on the chart, once BTC hits 5k, It will slowly start coming back up to almost $13-14k. Then one last correction will happen all the way to the purple support trend line before BTC is invited to the rocketship to start the next Bitcoin Bubble. Extrapolating 845 days from the low on August 13 2018, you will see only one intersection on that day, and the intersection is that of the fib channel and the $750k BTC horizontal trend line. Bitcoin might have short squeeze to $1 million dollars and then the bubble will either pop, or mass adoption will occur. In my perspective, I believe the former will happen. What will happen thereafter is too far ahead to matter.
If you made it to the end, thanks for reading. Really appreciate it. If you enjoyed this commentary, please leave a positive comment or upvote.
Signing off,
hullah3000
On August 17 2015, with months of a deterioration of Bitcoin's price, everyone's confidence in Bitcoin waned as BTC price fell below $200 to a record low of $160. Almost a year beforehand, Bitcoin was almost 10 times its price, and some people that had bought at that time as well as the Hodlers were starting to think that this might actually go to ZERO. Many cashed out their long-term investments after months of waiting for the price to rebound. Doesn't this situation that I have described feel like the current state of Bitcoin today?
Well if you said yes, then you are right because that situation that had happened IS what is happening right now! In fact, look at the previous low that BTC visited. What was the date? August 13? Well well well, what an interesting observation. The low back then compared to the previous low is almost exactly 2 years apart. That is not all, Ever since the price dipped to $150 all those years ago, Bitcoin has been finding support on one of the the largest trend lines in the history of Bitcoin. The trend line has not been violated since $200. (I indicated the purple trend line on the chart above)
Let's walk through this step by step. I will be referencing the chart with pictures below.
I believe, as most people here do that Bitcoin has still not hit a true bottom. We might have a small increase in price for a while (which I have indicated above), but I think the bear market will continue to the $5000 mark. This also will hit a key level in the fib channel (the rainbow looking regions) as well which increases the likelihood of the revisit happening. So why is the Fib channel so important? Let's get into that.
So by applying the Fib channel in the same direction as the Huge bull trend that was drawn, it gives some interesting observations:
- The first is that the price highs and lows both interact with the fib channel. This is seen at the red and purple arrows that I have indicated on the chart. This picture only shows the beginning of this trend. Take a look at the rest of 2017 below:
As you can see, the fib channel interacts with the highs and lows of Bitcoins price very very accurately. Not only that, the Fib extension lines pass through the $20k BTC mark perfectly(the navy blue region). So this fib channel in fact could've predicted a $20k BTC reversal as early as June 2016.
Now how long did this bull run take? Exactly 845 days. The price shortly after starting correcting and then the bear market started.
Looking above, as my prediction shows on the chart, once BTC hits 5k, It will slowly start coming back up to almost $13-14k. Then one last correction will happen all the way to the purple support trend line before BTC is invited to the rocketship to start the next Bitcoin Bubble. Extrapolating 845 days from the low on August 13 2018, you will see only one intersection on that day, and the intersection is that of the fib channel and the $750k BTC horizontal trend line. Bitcoin might have short squeeze to $1 million dollars and then the bubble will either pop, or mass adoption will occur. In my perspective, I believe the former will happen. What will happen thereafter is too far ahead to matter.
If you made it to the end, thanks for reading. Really appreciate it. If you enjoyed this commentary, please leave a positive comment or upvote.
Signing off,
hullah3000