Sive-Morten

Breaking all limitations

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Morning everybody,

So, our last 1H chart analysis with the diamond has brought small loss to the bears and great result for the bulls probably. But, it is in the past and today we would like to say different things. Right now we only partially could use technical tools to explain BTC price action. It is driven right now mostly by easy money of Institutional investors. They just flood the market with the Trillions that they have. Technical factors doesn't work right now, at least on lower time frames. Our fundamental view that we've released recently sets minimal target for BTC around 50K with most probable target in 2021 around 100 - 150K per coin, but even 400K will not surprise me. Fed will print money actively and all of them gradually stand in pockets of banks and funds. The "institutional" flood just has started. They have invested tens billions, but it will be hundreds of billions (if not trillions) as 3-5% of total assets is absolutely probable level for global portfolio diversification.

Technically, in a very short-term our monthly target stands at 30-35K where market is going right now. Based on price action that we see, we come to conclusion that we have volatility breakout pattern here. It has the following features - unstoppable rally that should finished somewhere naturally, we do not predict it, deep retracement then (usually 50-60%) that becomes the best level for BTC accumulation in long term and 3rd stage is final extension.
Currently we stand in the first stage when volatility breakout is just forming. The safest way to act is to buy meaningful deeps, pullbacks to fib levels and out around the top, or, at least move stops to breakeven to keep position.

Do not sell. For short entry wait for clear bearish reversal pattern on daily/weekly chart. This pattern has to be extended - something like H&S, as we're dealing with big picture. Until it will be formed, better to not struggle with the running train.

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