I have been playing around for 9 months for a reliable strategy that I can trade with and I am sharing my first reliable strategy with the few flaws that I need to work out but it has been a profitable strategy so far for me as it does determine when huge moves happen and has a good track record of having winning trades.
- 1 hour
- 50-hour Moving Average
- 200-hour Moving Average (still working on refining how to use this in the strategy reliably with set rules)
- 1. Find a point of interest with the 50MA
Set an alert on the 50 hour moving average for BTCUSD and when it is triggered watch the chart for the close of the candle.
- 2. Determine if it is a tradable point and determine the risk/reward to determine the size of the trade and stop loss
- Wait for the close of the candle and if it closes on the opposite side of the then can enter a trade (OPEN above --> CLOSE below will be a short) (OPEN below --> CLOSE above will be a long)
- Set the STOP LOSS at the 50MA at the point where the trade was entered *
- Size of the trade will be determined by having the risk of losing a set amount per trade and because we have the entry point and the stop loss point.
eg. SL = 50MA/STOP LOSS = 9200; EP = ENTRY POINT = 9150; LOSS = MAX LOSS PER TRADE = $50.00; BTC TRADE SIZE = LOSS/(EP-SL) = -1 BTC
- 3. Exit strategy will be situation based (still a work in progress)
- Set a TP1 = Take Profit Level 1 = (EP - SL) + EP
- **Work in Progress** Setting the conditions to maximise the profits (This makes or breaks the strategy). I have listed below the potential methods I will use but it will depend on the trade;
-Using a trailing stop after TP1
-Using the 200MA if it is relevant for a TP2 target
-Continue to move the SL to previous higher lows until trend stops
-Using other TA patterns to determine key levels of
I will be posting any of my trade ideas and updating them as they progress and stating my reasoning behind each trade but if you follow this idea it will be the Exit strategy that will be the balls of this trade idea.
Note: There is only 1 thing that needs to be worked out is to cancel any trade ideas when the 50MA becomes the support or resistance as it does cross multiple times within this period and how to determine when this is happening because looking historically it is easy to spot but at the current time it is quite difficult. I have a few ideas on how to determine a pause on the strategy so stay tuned to see my thoughts on how to quantify when this is happening in real-time.
Now, this strategy can point out some rubbish trades but from my analysis, there is a high percentage between 65%-90% if you take our periods where the 50MA is the .
FOLLOW me if you would like to see the progress of this simple trading strategy because I am implementing this trade idea from now on as I have deemed this the most worthy of all my ideas that has a higher probability of being a profitable trade. Simple yet effective...on paper anyway lol.
DISCLAIMER: THIS IS JUST AN IDEA THAT I AM DOING PERSONALLY AND AM POSTING IT HERE FOR FEEDBACK AND TO KEEP ME ACCOUNTABLE. IF YOU DO TRY THIS DO AT YOUR OWN RISK AS I KNOW JACK ALL BUT LET ME KNOW HOW YOU GO!