VincentBoudewijn

Searching for answers in Bitcoin's onbalanced volume indicator.

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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Hi everyone,

I think we are at a crucial area for Bitcoin . Will we hold support at 6k or are we going lower?
The average cost for mining lies around 6k. Could we be starting to look for a bottom?

I decided to look at onbalanced volume to see if there is anything interesting to find in this indicator.

On balanced Volume could be used to spot a trend reversal. We would need either a price moving in a stagnant or down direction and our OBV in an uptrend. (divergence)
It could mean that smart money is buying into Bitcoin .

Looking at the weekly chart we can see that there is a bullish divergence . The price of bitcoin has been moving down form 6.4k towards 6.1k over the course of april/may/june while the OBV is trending upwards.



Looking at the 4hour chart we can see that the OBV clearly moves into a channel.
We could make the argument that a possible falling wedge could be in play. If this would be a falling wedge . We are now at the bottom of that wedge .
I think it would be important to see if buyers are stepping in at this point. If this support does not hold we could see significantly lower prices and the OBV plummeting.

Will the OBV start moving up from here? It is possible.


Looking at the daily chart we can see that somewhat also the falling wedge is into play. But while we have dumped hard the OBV is still pretty close to the upper part of the channel.
Will it break this channel on the upside? The coming weeks will tell.



Thanks for reading I thought it would be interesting to look at the OBV and see if we could find anything interesting.

Greetings,
Vincent
There is much disinformation out there. Morgan Stanley will tell you cost of mining is 8600 USD, Fundstrat say 8000 and Bloomberg 6900 and then you have that famous list of mining by country which is just plain wrong and totally underestimates the cost. I think that that the true break even cost (which should include hw costs) is somewhere around here. 6k sounds believable, in 2015 the bottomed formed around 250 after bouncing from about 160. 250 was roughly the break even cost of mining I believe https://medium.com/@sunnyday.james/estimating-the-break-even-price-for-new-bitcoin-mining-units-88e39a0f5f9a
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The day its announce it cost more to mine than the price of BTC you will see it shoot up $3000
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@Msparky, People have already said this https://www.cnbc.com/2018/03/15/bad-news-for-bitcoin-miners-as-its-no-longer-profitable-to-create-the-cryptocurrency.html seems Fundstrat were either wrong or lying. Estimating the true break even cost and then how low / how long price can remain unprofitable for the big miners is difficult. Seems to me this guys estimating of around 6k is better than Tommy Lee's. It's interesting that this level has been "defended" so well...
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Volume indicators are not that great at spotting divergences. And cost of mining is around 3-4k.
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I was under the impression that the average mining cost was arguing 3,600. But perhaps that's the average cost in China?
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You always come out with some great stuff. Thanks for sharing your insight!
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