The Complex Realities

Many people seem to think this is Bullish. Forgetting the fact (obviously) that it's still 50% from it's $69,000 High.

Classic case of retail only seeing what retail want to see and are blinded by every other opinion, including backed by sound logic.


When I said all that time ago - let's go long.

There was method to the madness, I had already been personally long several years. I explained why as a money manager it was now a thing of interest.

Fast foreword a little - the re-accumulation phase. This was the most interesting call of all for me.


You see, what I knew would be happening here was the bigger players had been entering and would use techniques to both enter and exit on their own terms. This was simply stunning to watch play out in front of your own eyes.

As we rallied away from the re-accumulation zone - retail got greedy and majority of social media was calling for 100k. Instead we had a very distinct pattern start.


I tried to warn people, but 100k had their eyes glazed over!

All you need to ask yourself, is who's selling. No I don't mean then. I mean now.

Here's the hint.

As we rallied from that 28k, it was pig ugly, you couldn't mask that move up with digital lipstick.

I explained why it would be capped. It needed to go down 3-4 and it would go up 4-5 but it already had it's name marked just above the old All Time High.

So we get up to a new high - yet again, calls for 100k came long and loud, 250k, a million dollars. Then it was apparent, people just threw numbers out in the air, rainbow stock to flow models and the reality was, they had less than half a clue!


Plan A, B, C and D was all "long only" again not listening to rational or logic.

As we dropped down "As I said we would" the next obvious move was the re-distribution. I explained how this would play out. No surprise, it did!


We hit $15,000 a long way from the $135,000 worse case your local influencers were shouting for.

We now start a long-term accumulation.


People with the memory of a fish, think that this move up will clear their red bags. Need I remind you we are still 50% of the ATH.

What can we see out on the monthly?

Look again

Maybe the monthly is too much to wait for? Here's the weekly view.

The angle, the volume, the overbought nature...

None of these scream - Bullish intent. Retail pumps the price by a couple of thousand dollars and it's again cries for the moon. The Blackrock approval of it's ETF pumped the price artificially and Institutional players are taking advantage. The accumulation phase, is happening, but it is not done - yet.

Before you jump into the comments with "Long Only" - back it up with logic, let's create the great debate.




Disclaimer
This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principle trader has over 20 years’ experience in stocks, ETF’s, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.