For the sake of education, let us compare very similar patterns.
1. One is the reversal patter of Silver , which has started back in April 2011.
2. The second is Monero reversal pattern that occurred in August 2017.
Silver rejected the support twice, although third time support didn’t hold, break below followed and the downtrend has followed.
Clearly, since June 2018, the Bitcoin patter is different as the support hasn’t been penetrated. Now Monero pattern analysis comes handy. The price of Monero has moved in a very similar way as BTC is moving now.
If Bitcoin to continue moving inline with the XMR/USD pattern of 2017, break above the downtrend should be just a matter of time. In that scenario BTC could be trading at $10-20k range before the end of the year.
But at the same time, looking Monero pattern, price spiked below the support prior to move up. This was a short term “stop loss kick out” move, which could also be the case for Bitcoin . If this spike will occur, BTC might drop down to $5000 or even $3000 for a short period of time.
Overall, staying cautions and waiting for the break above the could be the way to go about buying Bitcoin .