Update with sight modification to the chart:
In 2017 and 2021
- BTC reached its ATH around 1.5 years after halving.
- BTC reached its ATH 1065 days from the previous bottom.
- BTC broke its the previous bull run's ATH around 200 days from the halving.
On the basis of these and other similarities, I predict the following:
- BTC reaches bottom around Nov of 2022 (or Fall in any case), but my guess is after the midterm elections, when the fed turns on BRRR again.
- Bottom around 15k, give or take a few grand.
- After that, BTC begins UP ONLY, first slowly, then rapidly approaching/after halvening.
- ATH of 69k broken AFTER the next halving
- New ATH reached in Q4 of 2025
- New ATH around 150k
Not financial advice, and subject to change if the model is invalidated. The most obvious invalidation is if we get a new ATH this year.
In 2017 and 2021
- BTC reached its ATH around 1.5 years after halving.
- BTC reached its ATH 1065 days from the previous bottom.
- BTC broke its the previous bull run's ATH around 200 days from the halving.
On the basis of these and other similarities, I predict the following:
- BTC reaches bottom around Nov of 2022 (or Fall in any case), but my guess is after the midterm elections, when the fed turns on BRRR again.
- Bottom around 15k, give or take a few grand.
- After that, BTC begins UP ONLY, first slowly, then rapidly approaching/after halvening.
- ATH of 69k broken AFTER the next halving
- New ATH reached in Q4 of 2025
- New ATH around 150k
Not financial advice, and subject to change if the model is invalidated. The most obvious invalidation is if we get a new ATH this year.
