Where Are the BAKKT Breakout Moon Boys Now? & What's Next?
I had to get this in just to make a point. For months on end, we've heard nothing but moon-shot predictions from all of the YouTube jockeys concerning the BAKKT launch. Were they wrong? And are they still screaming breakout now?
The answer is not clear. For the moment, we can say they were wrong. But that doesn't mean the story is over. One thing most people forgot to consider is that you can play the BTC futures BOTH WAYS. One thing that i have maintained since the beginning of all this BAKKT launch breakout talk is the fact that the market will probably react in the opposite, due to conventional wisdom betting on the side of a bullish breakout. The reason I have rejected this notion? The bear market is NOT OVER. And if it were this easy, the majority of us would have monumental gains.
Look at the current chart. What do you see? A general bearish trend that continues. We are still in the midst of the downward trend, even though we are squarely in the zone of the upper trading channel indicated in light purple on my chart. We haven't made any solid moves yet, that would give us proof that a breakout will sustain itself. The small breaks above the top boundary of the channel were not bullish indications. Even though trading has gone outside of the lines, the momentum is still downward. We haven't posted a pattern yet that clearly tells us that we've changed direction.
If we close a day below the border between the light purple and the light yellow trading channels, there is certainly a possibility that we will sail right down to the bottom of the bigger parallel trading channel. Right now, volume is low. If we get a surge in volume, and if we look at other indications, I'm betting the move is going to be breaking to the bottom end. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we test the bottom of the yellow channel. If that happens, this could end up being a really positive development because it would allow BTC to fully complete the length of the bearish trend before the next big bull market starts.
Is there any evidence that BTC will shorten the natural market phases for the first time in history? I don't see any. It hasn't happened, ever. Why would it happen now? Some say that monumental news could change the normal trading pattern of accumulation, consolidation, markup, and distribution. But we just got the biggest news story one could concoct with the launch of BAKKT... and here we sit. Smart money always says, "buy the rumor, sell the news". We're sitting right on top of the big news right now. And they are selling... while we are buying.
I need to get rid of some of the old magic fib circle lines to make room for a new set that might give us clues to upcoming pivot points, because there will be many. While everyone else is thinking we are coming to the end of a pennant formation, ready for a major break to begin the bull run, I'm seeing a possible final dump. My prediction is a big fat red candle at the end of this formation. After the dump, I think BTC will bounce on whatever the true bottom is like a super ball, where it will find a nice landing spot for the final consolidation before the bull run this winter. That's just my opinion, not financial advice, not trading advice.
I could be completely wrong. But until then, I'm watching for a dip to touch on somewhere around 9170. The capitulation has a higher probability of happening if we dip to that critical point.
Stay tuned for more commentary!
Carlton Flowers
The CryptoPro
The answer is not clear. For the moment, we can say they were wrong. But that doesn't mean the story is over. One thing most people forgot to consider is that you can play the BTC futures BOTH WAYS. One thing that i have maintained since the beginning of all this BAKKT launch breakout talk is the fact that the market will probably react in the opposite, due to conventional wisdom betting on the side of a bullish breakout. The reason I have rejected this notion? The bear market is NOT OVER. And if it were this easy, the majority of us would have monumental gains.
Look at the current chart. What do you see? A general bearish trend that continues. We are still in the midst of the downward trend, even though we are squarely in the zone of the upper trading channel indicated in light purple on my chart. We haven't made any solid moves yet, that would give us proof that a breakout will sustain itself. The small breaks above the top boundary of the channel were not bullish indications. Even though trading has gone outside of the lines, the momentum is still downward. We haven't posted a pattern yet that clearly tells us that we've changed direction.
If we close a day below the border between the light purple and the light yellow trading channels, there is certainly a possibility that we will sail right down to the bottom of the bigger parallel trading channel. Right now, volume is low. If we get a surge in volume, and if we look at other indications, I'm betting the move is going to be breaking to the bottom end. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we test the bottom of the yellow channel. If that happens, this could end up being a really positive development because it would allow BTC to fully complete the length of the bearish trend before the next big bull market starts.
Is there any evidence that BTC will shorten the natural market phases for the first time in history? I don't see any. It hasn't happened, ever. Why would it happen now? Some say that monumental news could change the normal trading pattern of accumulation, consolidation, markup, and distribution. But we just got the biggest news story one could concoct with the launch of BAKKT... and here we sit. Smart money always says, "buy the rumor, sell the news". We're sitting right on top of the big news right now. And they are selling... while we are buying.
I need to get rid of some of the old magic fib circle lines to make room for a new set that might give us clues to upcoming pivot points, because there will be many. While everyone else is thinking we are coming to the end of a pennant formation, ready for a major break to begin the bull run, I'm seeing a possible final dump. My prediction is a big fat red candle at the end of this formation. After the dump, I think BTC will bounce on whatever the true bottom is like a super ball, where it will find a nice landing spot for the final consolidation before the bull run this winter. That's just my opinion, not financial advice, not trading advice.
I could be completely wrong. But until then, I'm watching for a dip to touch on somewhere around 9170. The capitulation has a higher probability of happening if we dip to that critical point.
Stay tuned for more commentary!
Carlton Flowers
The CryptoPro