We have two possible scenarios unfolding.
1) We have a forming and we're looking for the 5th touch with a strong breakout above the resistance lines I've plotted in this chart. In this scenario we could be seeing 17-19k BTC again.
2) We are signalling VFI divergence since the 7th of December. Additionally the monthly is @ 99.42, the past two times was @ 96 we retraced 76 and 86% respectively. If this is the case, we will be looking at a much lower BTC towards 8k over the coming weeks.
For scenario 1 to playout, we want to see a strong bounce off $13162 and to blast through the previous resistances. I have purchased at this zone, but I am ready to exit at a moments notice.
For scenario 2 to playout, we want to see a continuation decline below $13162, which should signal serious issues, and $8k BTC . Please see the chart below for the monthly comparison, as it's an important part of this scenario.
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We have more evidence of a further decline in the fact the 50 day MA has closed below on the daily, as many other traders are pointing out.
This can technically still break upwards, but if we combine the fact of all the negative indicators (VFI divergence, monthly RSI's, low volume, MA crosses, and general bad sentiment) I'd say the likelihood of a break downwards is much more likely.
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I've posted a new analysis that shows my opnions @