Starting from the top to the bottom:
and DI: is used to quantify trend strength. calculations are based on a moving average of price range expansion over a given period of time. When the (Light blue) is above the (Red), prices are moving up, and (Dark blue)measures the strength of the uptrend. When the is above the , prices are moving down, and measures the strength of the downtrend. In the chart we have the above the , exactly what happened in the previous bear cycles.
Log MACD: Moving average convergence divergence ( ) is a trend-following that shows the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price. The is calculated by subtracting the 26-period ( ) from the 12-period . Log in this case is the difference between Log of Moving Avarages. If you pay attention, LMACD touched the top at a and started dumping. In previous bear cycles, once we crossed the 0 in the indicator, we turned to a bear cycle. As happening now.
RSI: The ( ) is a used in that measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions in the price of a stock or other asset. Last time the weekly accumulated below the 50 level of the indicator, we started a bear cycle.
Elders Force Index: Dr . Alexander Elder is one of the contributors to a newer generation of technical indicators. His is an oscillator that measures the force, or power, of bulls behind particular market rallies and of bears behind every decline.
The three key components of the are the direction of price change, the extent of the price change, and the trading . When the is used in conjunction with a moving average, the resulting figure can accurately measure significant changes in the power of bulls and bears. In this way, Elder has taken an extremely useful solitary indicator, the moving average, and combined it with his for even greater predictive success. If you pay attention, the EFI diverged and we need a bear market to start converging again.
From the chart:
Gaussian Channel: Gaussian filters, as explains it, are simply exponential moving averages applied multiple times. Every time we touch the top of Gaussian channel, we are in bear market. We make a final bounce up, but later we dump to the bottom of the channel and even below.
365 MA daily : The black line on the chart shows that every time we touch the 365 MA daily we eventually cross below it and we are in a bear cycle.
Conclusion: a final bounce up is probable, though is not a guarantee. Last bear cycles before hitting the bear market, we made a last bull trap. So, before really dumping to lower levels, 20k and even below, we can make a final bounce up.
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