The area between the $3,500 and $3,700 looks like almost the same as it was the area between $6,000-$6,500, a lot of fake movements up/down and Bart moves here and there. As it was then and as it is now, my recommendation is still - stay away from the market(!) but still, let's try guessing some possible moves and some possible movement confirmations through the .
Channels inside the channel?
Basically, we have three channels, two major channels are pointed downwards and on the smaller channel ( ) has pointed upwards.
The biggest channel downwards.
The biggest channel was starting to form the end of November. It has three touches on the upper and one touch (or two sloppy touches) on the lower . The lower is obtained after copy/pasting the upper so, it's a channel and the bigger channel middle (black dotted line) has worked recently as a strong . Several times it has held the price to not drop lower than that.
The second channel downwards.
The second channel, greenish, was starting to form the end of December. It has drifted between the biggest channel upper and the middle point. This channel has more touches and this means the breakout from the channel will guide us the direction where it happens. So, watch out if the price falls lower then the green channel and falls lower from the bigger channel middle point.
The third channel/Bear Flag.
The has started to form after the drop on 10. January. The upper has worked since then three times as resistance and the lower has worked two times as . Now, if we see a break below the it confirms several price action criteria:
1. The is a continuation chart pattern and if the breakout occurs downwards then the pattern shows the direction
2. If we get a break below the then this means that the price is below the recently strongly worked $3,500, which will be also a confirmation.
3. This diagonal black on every picture is currently the major counter (every time it has moved lower) and we are below of it, which means the trend is your friend and the trend is down which support downwards movement after the breakout.
The downwards movement targets should be:
- $3,350 (simply strong area)
- $3,128 (last year lowest level)
- $2,800-ish (biggest channel bottom )
As You see on the major image then there is a guessing game where it should rise if we see a move from the current area. Easily we could see another Bart move upwards into the upper and into the green channel middle point crossing area around $3,700. Then we are back above the major counter and IF the price stays there for a while then there are decent probability to go upwards after it has consolidated some days.
Currently, more favorable is definitely the move after we have seen a breakout from the (favorable also from a technical perspective) but as said, easily, we can see another Bart move upwards into the upper but still, there is no point to trade inside the .
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*This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
So, I would like to see Your opinions and charts on the comment section. If You have any questions which is pointed to the technical analysis then I try to answer all of them as good as I can ;)
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Several attempts to make a breakout from bearish chart pattern Bear Flag has failed but sellers keep trying and trying.
I think a 1H candle close below the bear flag and below the semi-round number will confirm further downwards price movement!
I'm still waiting for some bigger confirmation.
A possible escape from price falling is this when the buyers manage to push the price back above $3,550, above the black short-term trendline and this has to happen within several hours!
Altcoins make also a pullback so, we need to watch what the price do on the next hours!