BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
G'Day Cobbers,

Choppy waters indeed, it is hard to get a handle on BTC currently, as of yesterday I was bullish with the breaking of the small falling wedge but the 200ema stood above like a brick wall and denied any move above 8200 and the eventual break out of the large triangle. Overnight BTC kept ranging and we continued moving side ways into what now appears to be a descending triangle ( bearish ). If we break as expected we will move back down towards the rising trend-line at the bottom of our main structure. Breaking should drop us to around $7200 dollars, from there we will have to reassess our next target. For now Its a no trade, not until we see some confirmation of direction/breakout. Unless you want to trade the swings , in which 7800 - 8050 have been suitable targets but be careful, a drop below 7800 could run on pretty quickly, don't get caught out in a thunderbox during a cyclone. It blows.

G'day

Thanks for dropping by, hopefully you garner something valuable from my post, be it educational or an idea towards a trade of your own. Please share, like and comment and engage with me, I am here to help.

Trader, Chart analyst and all round larrikin. Reside in NQ Australia, surrounded by Crocodiles, snakes & giant spiders, not to mention the boxing Kangaroos and devilish Drop bears. It makes my job quite hazardous but strewth mate, I love it.
Comment:
Comment:
Comment: Down she blows
Comment: Possible pullback incoming, vix has found bottom and 0ema about to cross over the 20 rsi. Chance for a quick long while the next pattern builds.
Comment: ConnersRSI is getting pretty high though.
Comment: Still on track, RSI hitting extremely oversold, pull back should be coming up but RSi can stay high for extended periods.
Comment: failing wedge on 15mins, plus some divergence.
Comment: 7200k target smashed, crikey looks like another test of 6k is imminent.
Comment: Another drop incoming
HI, now I'm thinking that there are no limits to the fall.
All waiting for the lowest value to buy help fall more
Would you consider repurchasing before 12k?
It seems to me that BTC has been a long time falling .... just like altcoins .... will it?
This is just my sad opinion ... I'm just an ordinary person ...
First I was thinking of repurchasing around 6k .... but it seems the market is highly manipulated until when people lose hope in BTC .... do you believe still in BTC in the short term?
Reply
@jaatrad, I think if you spend some time studying your feelings of insecurity and fear in the market will be far less, just being honest with you but you are going to get destroyed in the market with so much indecision and uncertainty. If you are in USD, take a few weeks and study. Get on to audible and listen to market wizards, trading in the zone, reminiscence of a stock trader (brilliant book). Study chart patterns, trends, candlestick formations, read some market psychology books. Get comfortable with your risk, don't risk what you are not willing to lose and expect losses. There is more to making money in trade, then is it going long or short, even with great chart skills, you need to understand the psychology of the Market and most importantly yourself. Fear causes bad trades, geed causes bad trades, revenge, chasing losses and even big wins cause bad trades. Its a mine field and experienced traders call you fish, and you are easy prey.

You will struggle to find a bottom, you shouldn't buy into a falling market without experience, its called catching falling knives. I laddered my buys down from 7200, small percentages of my equity all the way down to 6k. In doings so If it turns at 6800, I caught 40% of what I wanted to trade and can buy into strength, I didn't risk missing the bottom and more importantly if I feel it is going to go lower ( say a bear flag is painted) I can sell off some of those buys at a very small loss and reposition at lower levels. If I just put my whole trade on say 7200, I would now be 200 deep. The process of cost averaging down means that you bring your average price down as it falls. .1 bitcoin purchased at 10k = $1000 but if I then buy another .1 bitcoin at $5000k I have .2 at $1500 bring my buy in to $7500. Understand?
Reply
jaatrad TroyByrne
@TroyByrne, you're a gentleman, good tips..
I'm learning with your advices
By the way, do you spend a long time on line to change your targets?
Changes happen when we are sleeping!
Yesterday I sold all I had (0.5 BTC) at 7960 to rebuy around 6K.
I was holding but this moment is criical to hold that's why I was extremely worry...
I was wondering why buying on downtrend if we don't have predictions to increase it
Good to meet you
Reply
@jaatrad, If Im using leverage say on bitmex then sleeping on a trade is bad, I have be liquidated before and tend not to now. Depends on the trade, day trades should not be slept on but if you are trading on a daily, it's a different story but you still have to deal with flash crashes, by the way we are about to drop again.
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Please, do you think we hit the bottom at 7326 ? Maybe it do the same last time? ... thanks!!
Reply
@jaatrad, No I think the bottom will be around 6k but if we don't hold that, it will get hairy.
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