botje11
Long

Short term Bitcoin 9500 H&S, long term 11K/12K also H&S

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Bitcoin             has broken out of the 8000/9000 trading range, it broke out with high volume and made a big rally towards the 10.300 without making any real correction in price and time. In my updates of my previous charts, i showed there was a small H&S in the making with a target around 9500, which would be healthy correction of this rally. 9500 is also a level from where the big crash to the 6K level began a few weeks ago. It should be a support level now.
When Bitcoin             broke out the 9000 yesterday it confirmed the breakout of a bigger inverse H&S with a target around 12K. For now this is still what i expect, but short term a small correction of this rally, which could be seen as a pullback to this bigger H&S
Comment: The last update of my previous chart:

I think its making a flag now, with a target around the green area (the neckline of the H&S i was talking about. It's falling into place now
Comment: New trading channel, but for now looks only short term. In very bullish scenario, the bottom has already been set at 9700. A confirmation that this downtrend is over, would be a break of this channel. I will close my short position around 9500 or when it breaks the channel. Will probably turn long than
Comment: I am almost getting out and turning log again. The H&S seems te be turning into a wedge, its almost breaking out now. Thats it for today, good luck
Comment: I think it will be making a bull flag, so a drop towards 9700/9500 is very likely. The target of the wedge was reached
Comment: I thought it would be making a move like this,but the market seems to strong, does not want to give to much away of the rally. Could be breaking out today
Comment: A zoom in of the picture now, if it was not weekend now, it would 90% sure we will go up further, that why i only going long with a small position
Comment: Targets of the big inverse H&S from the 6K bottom says target 12K, the bullish flag now gives a target of 12K and that long term trendline gives the resistance for now around the 12K/12.500, so it does fall into place, would be to easy though :)
Comment: Look at these identical moves, after a 200/300 move
Comment: I am long now at 10100
Comment: Second half at 10.000ish
Comment: Ant there is the breakout, it should stay above the green area for now and make another small rally
Comment: Target should be around 10.800, but coinbase has been holding the other back, for a few hours now. That is a weak signal for now.
Comment: I have closed at 10400, seems to be getting exhausted for now
Comment: I don't trust this at all!! My first though was, some big stakeholders trying to bring in bullish rumours into the market. WHo in his right mind would buy this amount of Bitcoin at these prices with all the uncertainties lately. It's just impossible! I don't even believe it for a second. I believe the fact ofcourse, but this is not one person or rich wall street guys or whatever. These have to be the biggest stakeholders in Bitcoin, who are trying to rescue it. But probably even more just a movement of Bitcoins (wash trading) between them. It's known that it gets done, to create volume and to give the appearance that the ask for Bitcoin is high (again). It could work ofcourse, it has been done for years already. :)
https://www.investopedia.com/news/bitcoin-price-retreats-10k-mysterious-buyer-emerges/?partner=YahooSA&yptr=yahoo
Comment: I am shorting it now at 10540, stop around 10650
Comment: It just keeps on going :), went through my stop. I am flat now. IF it drops back towards 10.200/10.300 i will probably go long again, for now just the sidelines. I underestimated the strenght
Comment: Hopefully we are going to see a a drop towards the 10.300/10.100 area where we can find good support. That we be a good level to go long again. For now i am still flat, got out early and did not want to get in before making a normal correction. This rally from the 8.500 just does not feel normal, it's to systematical, to many of the same moves and patterns, just like i showed in a earlier update.
Comment: I am shorting it now at 10775, I see hesitation, and the 10.800/11.000 is a big resitance. Stop a few points above the high
Comment: Probably gonna loose this one, hanging to much at the high, It's only Bitfinex holding the other exchanges back. I thought Bitfinex would make a lower high and drop sooner. Guess i was wrong, It will only be about 100 points loss if it goes through my stop
Comment: I am out early, 10840
Comment: This flag also gives a target around 12.000. I went long now at 10900. This strength is just not normal, no real corrections whatsoever. Everyone seems to have forgotten the last 2 months. Well, no use fighting it, just jumping on the bull train again
Comment: I am out again at 11070, should retest the flag now, getting back in there
Comment: There is just no stopping this :) just making another flag, there was some real dumping at Bitfinex, many big orders of 10+ BTC but there is still enough buying power. I am out for today, think i will come back on monday
Comment:
Comment: And again, identical
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Dunno if you look at the money flow indicator but its been overbought for quite some time.
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botje11 ctharvey
@ctharvey, No i dont, but thats no surprise thought. Went up almost 2000 points now without a real correction. That's why i wanted to see the bull flag be completed with a drop towards the 9500 before breaking the 10.200. Would be much more healthier for this rally, now it risks getting exhausted. So far it's just showing strength, but I got out at 10.400 feeling like this, now its even 150 points higher, so it just pushes on. No real logich in crypto world :)
+1 Reply
Hi,betoje11 your analysis r amazing. can u please do an analysis for long-term scenario
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botje11 VIPIN_IITK
@VIPIN_IITK,
Thank you, you should read some of my previous analysis to know what i think longer term. Short term we should go towards 11K/12K, longer term i think we still go down again. But always flexible to change thoughts when the market tells me to
+1 Reply
lrs1995 botje11
@botje11, u think we will face nice correction after 12k? I also feel the same. maybe down to 6k.
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botje11 lrs1995
@lrs1995, Yes i do, but for now it's showing strength, not something to ignore and fight.
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Thanks
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Thanks!
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