Bitcoin: 28K Resistance Intact.

Tough price action for both longs and shorts in Bitcoin. Drawing perspective from the bigger picture can help to assign probabilities to a narrower range of outcomes. This is not an attempt to forecast the market with an absolute certainty, instead it is a way to prepare for a variety of scenarios that Bitcoin may choose at any moment.

First let's consider the broader trend vs. the current levels. If you go out a few months, it can be argued that the broader trend is range bound. The range low is the 25K AREA and the range high is the 28 to 30K AREA. Until price successfully pushes one of these boundaries, it is reasonable to expect price to fluctuate inside this range (aka consolidation). When you also consider other factors like the rising interest rates, that adds even more WEIGHT to this expectation.

This means every time there is a large green candle over some overly hyped news, and all the "experts" are calling for 50K, you should know that as long as this economic environment continues, this market is not likely to progress in any sustainable way.

Next we look at levels. Recently price has attempted to push the 28.5 area. IF you notice on the chart, there are a two points in particular that stand out: 28,100 and 28,500 areas (see blue square and horizontal line). The fact that price fails to push through is telling. IF price fails to break above the 28's, then it increases the chances for a test of 25K (see drawing on chart).

The reason for this is: every time there is a rally attempt, long positions grow and these traders then get stuck. Any ounce of negative news, they all get stopped out, etc. which can culminate into enough momentum to send price back to the 25Ks. If the catalyst is powerful, it can potentially break 25K as well because you also get shorts piling in at the same time.

The best strategies for this type of environment: day trades and swing trades. These are far from ideal prices to be investing especially in terms of interest rates.

To summarize, since we should all embrace that markets are MOSTLY random, we want to narrow the range of outcomes as much as possible to form reasonable expectations of where price goes next. Price structure and other factors tell us that price is more likely to stay within the current range. That also means supports AND resistances are more likely to stay intact. IF we are currently flirting with a resistance, then it is within reason to anticipate it will not break. This suggests a test of 25K is more likely than a push to 30K.

This type of evaluation is what provides ACTIONABLE context that you can apply specifically to your own strategy or to help filter signals from automated strategies like my trade scanner.
It is important to always keep in mind that we are in a market environment that is completely dominated by algos and only getting harder. In my opinion, there will be less and less room for "thinking" and logic as technology makes markets more "efficient". Context is one thing, but having a rules based system or employing some form of automation is going to be the only way to compete.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective.