esjaees
Short

MA 200 Killed BTC!! Bottom Revealed in a Simple Chart!

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello Friends!

After having seen numerous BTCUSD charts, I am unsure why no top author told you about the ULTRA-IMPORTANT MA 200 on a daily chart which has been capping BTC growth since March 2018.

To keep things simple, I have made this chart using MA 20 (blue), MA 50 (black) and MA 200 (red), Fibonacci retracement levels, previous price action support levels (red extended lines drawn to the left of Fibonacci levels) and a black trend line which has been capping further growth of BTC (along with MA 20) after the rejection at 10000 level by MA 2000 on May 5, 2018.

How the moving averages -- especially the MA 50 and MA 200 -- have been acting as support and resistance is self explanatory on the chart.
I have used two Fibonacci levels in the chart. The larger one has 1.272 retracement at $2260 which I believe is the bottom given the strong price action support level at that point.

However, there are three other support levels between current price and $2260 which are the 1.272 retracement at $4624, 1.414 retracement at $4623 and 1, 618 retracement at $3160 as seen on the small Feb retracement. They are likely to serve as temporary support and might prompt minor relief rallies. How they coincide with previous price action support has been illustrated using red lines.

Here is why I am bearish and rejecting a bullish scenario :
Price tends to follow the path of least resistance. Since pretty much all the major resistances are above the current price level (to add to the worry, most resistances are within short ranges i.e. USD 6681-8390) and BTC has not been able to breach them with momentum, a bullish scenario in near term looks unlikely. Price must go down in phases to test the major support at 2260 level, consolidate there to gather strength and make an upward journey with momentum. A long term bullish scenario will only be confirmed only after a breach of MA 200 is confirmed.

I am not mentioning about the classical charting patterns since they have already been covered by many top authors. They also indicate a further break-down to 2260 level.

Thank you.
Feedback welcome.
Comment: Next destination 5450 and we are going there pretty soon. 4950 to 5050 range will follow right after. A minor relief rally can be expected there. Targets for that rally can only be considered after we get there. Thank you.
Trade active:
Trade closed: target reached: Exited trade at 3405 at profit as trailing take profit was hit. All positions closed.
RSI divergence and morning star on daily make it unsafe to short any-longer even though medium term bias is still to the downside.

Comments

Or what happens when the MA 200and MA 300 cross.
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:d
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esjaees UpbeatFX
@UpbeatFX, :D
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i see you posting your own chart on the comments section of all the top authors. just here to say, hope you use stop-loss because you seemed so confident and it just busted. good luck next time.
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esjaees UpbeatFX
@UpbeatFX, not busted. look at the chart again. nothing has changed. price is below MA 20 on daily. hope you are doing okay. :D
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esjaees UpbeatFX
@UpbeatFX, Another tip. Don't even remotely consider going long unless price has confirmed MA 50 on daily unless you are day trading. I swing trade so these spikes are meaningless to me. Long term (valid for 3 months+) bullish view will only be valid above MA 200. If you read my interaction with Vaikoveek, you can see how I clearly predicted this small bounce as well using Fib levels. :)
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UpbeatFX esjaees
@esjaees, indeed, i took 1/3 profit at 6750 and my stop-loss is my entry price which is 5820. so it's looking good to me. and as i could see your relief expectation was around 5000-5200 and you recommended to short it when it was around 6000-6200, still busted.
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esjaees UpbeatFX
@UpbeatFX, short target still stands. i will enter long only if the price confirms strength above 50 MA or at a golden cross of 20 and 50 MA. even though i didn't trade this spike my target was 6681 where it neatly went before retracing. neither do i mind taking a small loss while sticking to my strategy. this is what pros do. that apart, i got no reason to chase a $1000 movement in BTC whereas i can put that money to short copper, zinc or other commodities that can give me over 2x return in the same time frame with far lower risk. just check those charts if you trade anything apart from crypto and you would know what i am talking about.
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UpbeatFX esjaees
@esjaees, i have been trading forex for the last 15 years but this volatility in crypto has tickled me and i use more or less the same strategy since then but with less leverage obviously.

i still think this was a move to reset rsi in 4h and 1d, not being able to break 6250 was a good sign, if this breaks your scenario for the mid-term can be valid. we'll see.
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