BTC to finish between 50000 and 52000 in this Moon Phase

Hi! In my previous "moon analysis" I've looked into the tendency of Bitcoin to gain bull power during the waning phase and actually calming down during the growing phase. One of the ideas were actually within my closing expectation (check related ideas). I took it further and put quantitive measures on each phase since 2021. Why only since 2021? Well, it became too much "hype" this year for retail, institutional and "uneducated" investors (no offence, but I relate to those who invest in crypto for fun or due to its hype). All this together brings up too much sentiment into actually behaviour of bitcoin (and following alts). But again, its not a perfect analysis and it lacks professional level research. So its just my observation.

If you look at the graph and consolidate the growth of bitcoin for each phase, you can spot a tendency of token to either give positive or genitive growths in waning and growing phases, respectively. I used opening and closing prices for maths per each phase. Interesting to spot: bulls are getting less power in the last waning phases and bears are becoming more powerful (based on the growth rate). Hence, my expectation for Bitcoin to close this phases (ending on 26th of may) 8%-10% below the opening price: somewhere in the range of 52000 and 50000. (51896 & 50768 to be precise).

Again and again, its just an observation and if you have ideas, reflections or suggestions -> please comment :)