Just a brief note to observe the subtle change in the price action in the daily chart. You will note the pink Head & Shoulders pattern and its upward sloping neckline. This has been somewhat of a battleground over the past 12 days, since initially breaking the neckline to the downside on June 20. Every day since then, price has oscillated about this neckline, either breaking below or breaking above. Initially, the daily close was resolved above the neckline, showing is as support, however, over the past four days that has changed, with the price closing on or below it confirming it as resistance.
Today's action looks to continue that trend, but from a position of weakness, with the battle for the neckline seemingly lost and the RSI and trading volume both declining.
Opening at a point well below that line, it might be reasonably anticipated that bearish momentum will increase from here.
In the longer term view of things, this is all very necessary if BTC is to break out of its long term downward channel that has been the defining macro feature of the market since the all time high in December 2017. Since the all time high, the major bullish moves have come from bouncing of the fractional channel positions of the macro channel structure, on December 15, 2018, at 50% of the channel, then March 13, 2919, at 25% (1/4) of the larger channel. Now we are poised to see if that pattern repeats in a recursive/fractal expression of the past bounces. This time, however, it will form the right shoulder of a substantial Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern, that would be expected to propel BTC out of the declining channel and challenge its all time highs.
I am looking at the 0.618 ($6,383) and 0.786 ($5,279) retracement levels of this year's rally as potential areas from which the breakout will commence.
So, if it is to play out that way, the failure at the current H&S neckline could trigger a much larger iH&S structure, initiating one of the biggest rallies in BTC's history.
Today's action looks to continue that trend, but from a position of weakness, with the battle for the neckline seemingly lost and the RSI and trading volume both declining.
Opening at a point well below that line, it might be reasonably anticipated that bearish momentum will increase from here.
In the longer term view of things, this is all very necessary if BTC is to break out of its long term downward channel that has been the defining macro feature of the market since the all time high in December 2017. Since the all time high, the major bullish moves have come from bouncing of the fractional channel positions of the macro channel structure, on December 15, 2018, at 50% of the channel, then March 13, 2919, at 25% (1/4) of the larger channel. Now we are poised to see if that pattern repeats in a recursive/fractal expression of the past bounces. This time, however, it will form the right shoulder of a substantial Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern, that would be expected to propel BTC out of the declining channel and challenge its all time highs.
I am looking at the 0.618 ($6,383) and 0.786 ($5,279) retracement levels of this year's rally as potential areas from which the breakout will commence.
So, if it is to play out that way, the failure at the current H&S neckline could trigger a much larger iH&S structure, initiating one of the biggest rallies in BTC's history.
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