It appears at this point market sentiment is waning, not that price is indicative of market sentiment but BTC' did fail to hold the bullish channel. It aslo provided 3 points on the RSI allowing us to set a resistance line for it to break. short term the RSI resistance line broke the uptrend, but did not create a higher high, and is appears to be trading in the 35-65 over bought oversold area which is a bearish channel. The PPO looks similar to the last leg to $4890 prior to the dip where it could not keep up with the same percentage gains over the same period of time. I'm not sure there is anything bullish at the current time and we may likely see $4190-$4200 level where we should find support. Of course keep in the back of your mind sentiment changes on a dime, and we could easily turn and run, but it's a high probability we will test $4200 at this time. But that's not all. Let's take a look at the alt-coins as an indicator of market sentiment.
I remember opening up Bittrex and I would see % gain leader. Wow OkCoin' up 75%, holy crap ADX' up 80%, look at NEM' 110%. Today bitsend up 28%, (who is that) we are not seeing the same bullishness in mid grade coins that we saw just a week ago let alone the higher grade ones like NEO' OMG' LTC' ETH' or DASH'. This is a sign, that the bullish sentiment is waning not increasing! In addition look at how the price action took shape. In previous bull runs it was sharp to the upside, long bull movements, consolidation and resume. This last bull move was very choppy like trying to get over a speed bump. Did not see that before.
Taking a look at the chart above is some areas that are critical resistance and support levels. You should have these labeled if your trading, as these are HIGH PROBABILITY points where the market tends to consolidate or change trend direction. So we will be looking at these levels in addition to the Fibb levels. When you get both lining up, that's a solid indicator.
Overall the market is still bearish and sentiment is waning, you can see that in the way price moves (not the price gains but the way it is moving) in the bullish channels, the RSI, and PPO. The alt-coin market is not as strong as it was, people are getting a little more cautious and not running in to buy. This has become obvious over the past few days as many of you have posted it as well. As losses start to hit home sentiment will wane more. I'm seeing it on the other blogs. Who is buying here?
If your a short term trader - look to the $3500 resistance level as an area to take out a buy for one more rally to $4550. Keep in mind the other levels but this seems to be the most likely for a bounce as it has been support more 4 times in this run and it would be fair to assume it will form at least one more support level, but you must keep in mind the potential for further movement downwards. In otherwords this is not a buy at $3500 level, it's when we get there look to buy a breakout to the upside, look for a setup not a buy point.
Long term investors - Be patient and ride out the storm, not a time to be selling, but I'm not adding here either as we pointed out yesterday.
Short in the title does not mean i'm shorting btc here, it only means my market sentiment is bearish right now understand the difference. As I stated yesterday, we saw the waning, the weakness and exited most trades, exiting the remaining this morning (I posted this yesterday this is not a hind sight trade, look at the NEO article). I STILL HAVE MY CORE POSITION OF LONG TERM COINS I BOUGHT IN LATE AUGUST! Those I am not selling. (unless all hell breaks out, but I see a bull market resuming in the future) Tighten it up, be patient and do NOT get caught up in the FOMO one way or the other. Let the market sort itself out, this is not a time to be picking trades unless you are experienced and see a good setup.
I remember opening up Bittrex and I would see % gain leader. Wow OkCoin' up 75%, holy crap ADX' up 80%, look at NEM' 110%. Today bitsend up 28%, (who is that) we are not seeing the same bullishness in mid grade coins that we saw just a week ago let alone the higher grade ones like NEO' OMG' LTC' ETH' or DASH'. This is a sign, that the bullish sentiment is waning not increasing! In addition look at how the price action took shape. In previous bull runs it was sharp to the upside, long bull movements, consolidation and resume. This last bull move was very choppy like trying to get over a speed bump. Did not see that before.
Taking a look at the chart above is some areas that are critical resistance and support levels. You should have these labeled if your trading, as these are HIGH PROBABILITY points where the market tends to consolidate or change trend direction. So we will be looking at these levels in addition to the Fibb levels. When you get both lining up, that's a solid indicator.
Overall the market is still bearish and sentiment is waning, you can see that in the way price moves (not the price gains but the way it is moving) in the bullish channels, the RSI, and PPO. The alt-coin market is not as strong as it was, people are getting a little more cautious and not running in to buy. This has become obvious over the past few days as many of you have posted it as well. As losses start to hit home sentiment will wane more. I'm seeing it on the other blogs. Who is buying here?
If your a short term trader - look to the $3500 resistance level as an area to take out a buy for one more rally to $4550. Keep in mind the other levels but this seems to be the most likely for a bounce as it has been support more 4 times in this run and it would be fair to assume it will form at least one more support level, but you must keep in mind the potential for further movement downwards. In otherwords this is not a buy at $3500 level, it's when we get there look to buy a breakout to the upside, look for a setup not a buy point.
Long term investors - Be patient and ride out the storm, not a time to be selling, but I'm not adding here either as we pointed out yesterday.
Short in the title does not mean i'm shorting btc here, it only means my market sentiment is bearish right now understand the difference. As I stated yesterday, we saw the waning, the weakness and exited most trades, exiting the remaining this morning (I posted this yesterday this is not a hind sight trade, look at the NEO article). I STILL HAVE MY CORE POSITION OF LONG TERM COINS I BOUGHT IN LATE AUGUST! Those I am not selling. (unless all hell breaks out, but I see a bull market resuming in the future) Tighten it up, be patient and do NOT get caught up in the FOMO one way or the other. Let the market sort itself out, this is not a time to be picking trades unless you are experienced and see a good setup.
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$4200 will be an interesting level though there will be some resistance 5 times it went right through to the downside. I don't think it does that, but It's approaching much faster than I would have thought. Remember things can turn on a dime. Always be cautious of trend changes which is why we monitor our indicators for any signal of a change, but sentiment is waning and an indicative we may be in the last leg in lieu of a final pop to $4550. Just keep all possibilities in mind, we could turn around an run to $6000 as well. Just not as likely now. All about probabilities.
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Anyone see what is forming? early now but these are the trends you are looking for that give you and edge on other traders.
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oops wrong blog
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I'm hesitant to post this, but this is my strategy for reducing cost per coin of my core holdings using my trading account funds ONLY! very small position less than 5% will be in the trade, I am risking less than 1% with a tight stop loss. not an automatica either. I monitor! risk reward 3 to 1. $90 profit overall $30 above entry is stop loss. I will ride the HMA and RSI all the way though, those are targets not sell points.
Also I am monitoring the fibb retracement levels as this is where the EW Fibb traders will be exiting positions. How the RSI and HMA acts at those levels will determine whether I exit early or hold and ride!
Also I am monitoring the fibb retracement levels as this is where the EW Fibb traders will be exiting positions. How the RSI and HMA acts at those levels will determine whether I exit early or hold and ride!
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I have skin in the game, and I'm only willing to risk getting scratched. I do no like knife wounds!!!
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To be clear I trade SVXY and anyone familiar with this ETF understands how fast this stuff can move and reverse. If you have no experience with fast moving equities and no strategy, you just need to sit back and paper trade. I know boring but it's not as easy as it looks and I'm not swinging for the fences obviously!
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Also notice how weak the right shoulder was, and the usual bounce higher before the rug gets pulled. many times this is larger investors knowing smaller ones are trigger happy and push them through their margin stops, which creates the buyers they need. Now I'm not sure this happened here but be aware it does happen, which is why we don't want to be early!!!!!
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I'm waiting for DASH to trigger still want support off the line and a breakout to the upside. better being $5 late to a trade then it fail support and drop.
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Very strong move, closed the position, $15 spread difference on exchanges. I'm taking note of this to as bittrex is more US based and bitfinex is asian.
Anyways closed the 1/2 position. @4222. I saw $4235 on bitfinex and decided I would exit and look for a better entry probably at the neckline. especially since I'm going to bed and the china market opening. 0.36% loss is more than acceptable. I'm holding on to DASH as that looks to be turning as it hit the 0.6185% retracement and should go up from here.
Anyways closed the 1/2 position. @4222. I saw $4235 on bitfinex and decided I would exit and look for a better entry probably at the neckline. especially since I'm going to bed and the china market opening. 0.36% loss is more than acceptable. I'm holding on to DASH as that looks to be turning as it hit the 0.6185% retracement and should go up from here.
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And the usual drops to $4211 shortly after ;) ohh well strong up swing is a sign to exit. Not hold n hope! have a good night everyone, God bless!
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I'll leave you with the resistance levels to break for a bull movement to resume higher and they will be met with resistance. Will get a clearer picture at these levels. Good night and God Bless everyone!