I'm currently looking at the Near Term group of Timeframes (1d, 2d, 3d, 4d)
In all this group of timeframes, the Green EMA is higher than the Energy, this is a good sign and does pave the way for a potential resumption of upward pressure if certain conditions are met. We did have an early warning of this period of downward pressure - amongst other things, when the Red RSI in the daily crossed bearish below the Blue LSMA on 18th March, (as warned in my previous publication - see related ideas) we then saw the Red RSI make contact with the Green EMA as it fell on the 20th. There were other even earlier warnings in other timeframes such as the Red RSI & Blue LSMA closing making contact with the Green as it fell on 14th March in the 2d indicating that the Energy would fall below 50 at the start of the following candle.
So what do we need to happen before we can see a resumption of upward pressure?
As a prerequisite before we have a chance of resuming upward pressure, we need to see the Energy in the daily win the downward pressure race against the Red RSI in the 2d.
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the daily a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to resume, we first need to see the Energy in the daily CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 2d CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green EMA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the 2d and the Red RSI in the 4d etc. This downward pressure race has cascaded up from lower TFs. Until the Energy decisively wins the race, we do not have a chance for reversal to upward pressure in the relevant timeframes.
We also now have to consider the following:
The Red RSI, also having crossed bearish below the Blue LSMA in the 4d has now closed, as has the Blue LSMA making contact with the Green EMA as it falls. They are both heading downward. As the Red RSI is now significantly below 80 (67.54) and the Green EMA has crossed below 50, we are at risk of the price action falling to the proximity of the Bollinger Band basis (currently $45,879 but rising), confirmation of this is likely to crystalise if the Green EMA closes below 50 in about 15 hours which is in my opinion likely.
It is worth noting, also as pointed out in my previous publication, although the Green EMA is higher than the Energy in the Mid Term group of timeframes (3d, 6d, 9d, 12d) the large gap does place us in a precarious position, meaning we can see quite a rapid and precipitous fall in price action with very little warning.
Although we saw early warnings of this period of downward pressure and subsequent price action in the near term group of timeframes, this was manifest by a propagation up from the scalping and short term group of timeframes, by the same token we need to monitor these groups for potential of propagation of upward pressure cascading up through the timeframes. Currently the Energy is higher than the Green EMA in all of the short term group of timeframes (90m, 3h, 6h ,12h) we know as a result that when the Energy crosses below 50 we are likely to see lower lows and when the Energy crosses above 50 we are likely to see lower highs - so in this short term group of timeframes we have defined our downtrend.
In summary:
In my opinion we are likely to see a continuation of downward pressure and resulting downside price action until we see the energy conclusively win the downward pressure race. I think we could see price action fall to in the region of $47K unless we see a dramatic reversal in the next 14 hours.
As mentioned in previous publications, these markets can change with very little notice. These changes initially manifest themselves in the lower timeframes and propagate up through the timeframes. Nothing is set in stone. Unless you are day trading, you cannot benefit from these early warning signals.
As always - this is not financial advice but just my view of current market dynamics.
One has to be aware that analyses are done on the basis of what the indicators are saying at the time and things can change. It is important to always monitor the scalping group of timeframes as we will see changes propagate up from there.
Trade safe
aBL
In all this group of timeframes, the Green EMA is higher than the Energy, this is a good sign and does pave the way for a potential resumption of upward pressure if certain conditions are met. We did have an early warning of this period of downward pressure - amongst other things, when the Red RSI in the daily crossed bearish below the Blue LSMA on 18th March, (as warned in my previous publication - see related ideas) we then saw the Red RSI make contact with the Green EMA as it fell on the 20th. There were other even earlier warnings in other timeframes such as the Red RSI & Blue LSMA closing making contact with the Green as it fell on 14th March in the 2d indicating that the Energy would fall below 50 at the start of the following candle.
So what do we need to happen before we can see a resumption of upward pressure?
As a prerequisite before we have a chance of resuming upward pressure, we need to see the Energy in the daily win the downward pressure race against the Red RSI in the 2d.
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the daily a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to resume, we first need to see the Energy in the daily CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 2d CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green EMA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the 2d and the Red RSI in the 4d etc. This downward pressure race has cascaded up from lower TFs. Until the Energy decisively wins the race, we do not have a chance for reversal to upward pressure in the relevant timeframes.
We also now have to consider the following:
The Red RSI, also having crossed bearish below the Blue LSMA in the 4d has now closed, as has the Blue LSMA making contact with the Green EMA as it falls. They are both heading downward. As the Red RSI is now significantly below 80 (67.54) and the Green EMA has crossed below 50, we are at risk of the price action falling to the proximity of the Bollinger Band basis (currently $45,879 but rising), confirmation of this is likely to crystalise if the Green EMA closes below 50 in about 15 hours which is in my opinion likely.
It is worth noting, also as pointed out in my previous publication, although the Green EMA is higher than the Energy in the Mid Term group of timeframes (3d, 6d, 9d, 12d) the large gap does place us in a precarious position, meaning we can see quite a rapid and precipitous fall in price action with very little warning.
Although we saw early warnings of this period of downward pressure and subsequent price action in the near term group of timeframes, this was manifest by a propagation up from the scalping and short term group of timeframes, by the same token we need to monitor these groups for potential of propagation of upward pressure cascading up through the timeframes. Currently the Energy is higher than the Green EMA in all of the short term group of timeframes (90m, 3h, 6h ,12h) we know as a result that when the Energy crosses below 50 we are likely to see lower lows and when the Energy crosses above 50 we are likely to see lower highs - so in this short term group of timeframes we have defined our downtrend.
In summary:
In my opinion we are likely to see a continuation of downward pressure and resulting downside price action until we see the energy conclusively win the downward pressure race. I think we could see price action fall to in the region of $47K unless we see a dramatic reversal in the next 14 hours.
As mentioned in previous publications, these markets can change with very little notice. These changes initially manifest themselves in the lower timeframes and propagate up through the timeframes. Nothing is set in stone. Unless you are day trading, you cannot benefit from these early warning signals.
As always - this is not financial advice but just my view of current market dynamics.
One has to be aware that analyses are done on the basis of what the indicators are saying at the time and things can change. It is important to always monitor the scalping group of timeframes as we will see changes propagate up from there.
Trade safe
aBL
This is previous analysis..