6 Reasons $69000 was not the top for this Bitcoin bull market
I'm going to give a few reasons 11/10/21 could not possibly be the top of the bull market which started 12/15/18 at $3128.89. This will be the first: The Fear and Greed Index on alternative.me which was developed during the 2018 bear market. Greed Index at the 6/26/19 wave (1) $13868 top was 92. At the 3/13/20 wave (2) $3858 bottom it was 8. At the 4/14/21 wave (3) $64899 top it was 75 (it was 95 on 2/9/21 at a lower price). At the wave A $28800 bottom it was 10. At the wave B $69000 top on 11/10/21 it was 75, hardly indicative of a top to the market which should be between 90-100. The 6/18/22 possible wave C and end of wave (4) bottom at $17567 the index was at 6. I believe wave (5) and the end of this bull market will be 11/30/23 (based on Fib number sequences of BTC bull market durations), the index will be 90-100, and the price will be near $340000 (top of the BTC log growth curves which was hit in previous bull market highs on 6/8/11, 11/30/13, and 12/17/17.
The second reason 11/10/21 was not the top to this Bitcoin bull market is from the CBBI (Colin Talks Bitcoin Bull Index) developed by Colin and Kamal Monicz (Polish software programmer) two years ago. This Index has been back tested to include all dates since 6/28/11. 6/28/11 the Confidence level that the top was in was 79; 20 days earlier on 6/8/11 BTC did its first bull market top at $31.90. It can be surmised that the CBBI would have been 95-100 if back tested to that date. CBBI level for the 1st bear market low on 11/18/11 was 9. CBBI levels for the Elliot Waves of the 2nd BTC bull market were: (1) 1/8/12 36; (2) 1/31/12 32; (3) 4/10/13 92; (4) 7/6/13 52; (5) 11/30/13 100. The 2nd BTC bear market low on 1/14/15 the CBBI level was 2. CBBI levels for the Elliot Waves of the 3rd BTC bull market were: (1) 11/4/15 26; (2) 1/16/16 25; (3) 6/12/17 68; (4) 7/6/13 56; (5) 12/17/17 100. The CBBI level for the 3rd bear market low on 12/15/18 was 3. CBBI levels for the Elliot Waves of this 4th Bitcoin bull market are: (1) 6/26/19 48; (2) 3/13/20 13; (3) 4/14/21 77; A 6/22/21 49; B 11/10/21 59 (thus could not possibly be the BTC bull market top since you should expect a confidence top level of 95-100), (4) C 6/18/22 possible bottom at $17567 at 12 confidence level. I am expecting wave (5) to end 11/30/23 (see reason in comment above) near $340,000 (see reason in comment above). and I expect the CBBI confidence level to be 95-100.
The third reason 11/10/21 was not the top to this Bitcoin bull market is from the duration of BTC bull markets which I have explained in detail before and will repeat here. First bull market was 7/18/10 to 6/8/11 or 325 days. Second bull market was from 11/18/11 to 11/30/13 or 743 days, longer than the first bull market. The third BTC bull market was from 1/14/15 to 12/17/17 or 1068 days, exactly the sum of the durations of the first two BTC bull markets (325 days + 743 days = 1068 days). This is a Fibonacci number sequence which I discovered a few weeks ago to the day for the first 3 BTC bull markets. I am expecting this 4th bull market which started 12/15/18 to last the duration of the 2nd and 3rd bull markets or 743 days + 1068 days = 1811 days from 12/15/18 or 11/30/23 exactly to the day. The $69000 top on 11/10/21 was only 1059 days from 12/15/18, not even as long as the third BTC bull market which was 1068 days. Thus from my reasoning here that the markets are LENGTHENING then 11/10/21 could not possibly have been the top to this Bitcoin bull market.
The fourth reason 11/10/21 was not the top to this Bitcoin bull market is from the Bitcoin log growth curves indicator developed by Cole Garner on Trading View several years ago. The top of the curves or 10th curve was hit at the top to each BTC bull market ending on 6/8/11 at $31.90, 11/30/13 at $1177.19, and 12/17/17 at $19764.51 (BLX prices). At the top of Elliot Wave (3) on 4/14/21 at $64899 (Coinbase price), the BTC price did not even hit the 7th curve. At the top of minor wave B of intermediate wave (4) on 11/10/21 at $69000, the BTC price did not hit even the 6th log growth curve so $69000 could not possibly have been the top. Since the bottom of the curves have been violated twice now at wave (2) on 3/13/20 at $3858 (bottom of curves was twice that price) and at the possible wave (4) bottom on 6/18/22 at $17567 (bottom of curves was once again twice the $17567 price), it is possible Bitcoin will NOT hit the top of the BTC log growth curves on 11/30/23. I think the date is more important than the price. Cole's indicator could be diverting from his original projection and the top might not be hit. However, I believe at least the 7th curve should be hit on 11/30/23 or $220,000. If it hits the top of the curves on 11/30/23 it should hit $340,000. I will be ready to exit at least BTC and LTC positions on 11/30/23 regardless of what the price is. ETH and alt positions I'm expecting to top 2-3 weeks later than BTC and LTC like the last BTC bull market which ended 12/17/17 but didn't end for ETH until 1/8/18 at $1420 or 22 days later than BTC. Most of the alts back then also ended either the end of Dec 2017 or in Jan 2018.
The fifth reason 11/10/21 was not the top to this Bitcoin bull market is from my expectation that the power law of 10 would once again be reached in price in this bull market. 1st bull market: (0) 7/18/10 6 cents at beginning of trade: 1 cent; (1) 11/6/10 49 cents: 10 cents (power of ten achieved)/ (3) 5/14/11 $8.85: $1 (power of ten achieved); (5) 6/8/11 $31.90: $10 (power of ten achieved). 2nd BTC bull market: (3) 4/10/13 $268.67: $100 (power of ten achieved); (5) 11/30/13 $1177.19: $1000 (power of ten achieved). 3rd BTC bull market: (5) 12/17/17 $19764.51: $10000 (power of ten achieved). This 4th BTC bull market I expected the power of ten to be achieved again with a minimum BTC price of $100,000. Since on 11/10/21 BTC only reached $69000 with most expecting a price > $100,000 to be achieved by the end of 2021 to early 2022, then I suspect wave (5) to this bull market will achieve the power of ten minimum price of $100,000 in 2023 and the top will come 11/30/23 between $220K to $340K.
The sixth reason 11/10/21 was not the top to this Bitcoin bull market is that the first three BTC bull markets ended in a parabolic 5th Elliot wave top that was at least 3.6 times the price of the 3rd intermediate corrective wave price and also at least 5.7 times or more the price of the wave (4) bottom price. 1st Bull market: (3) $8.85 (4) $5.59 (5) $31.90 (3.6 times and 5.7 times the wave (3) and (4) prices, respectively. 2nd BTC bull market: (3) $268.67 (4) $65.00 (5) $1177.19 (4.4 times and 18.1 times the wave (3) and (4) prices, respectively. 3rd BTC bull market: (3) $2984.90 (4) $1814.76 (5) $19764.51 (6.6 times and 10.9 times the wave (3) and (4) prices, respectively. This 4th BTC bull market: (3) $64899 A $28800 B $69000 (4) C possible bottom at $17567. If $69000 was the wave (5) top then it was only 1.06 times the wave (3) price and only 3.9 times the possible wave (4) bottom price. This is not consistent with the previous 3 Bitcoin bull markets, thus $69000 was NOT a wave (5) top of bull market price as some speculate. Instead wave (5) is coming and if BTC reaches at least $250,000 as I expect by 11/30/23 for a wave (5) price, then that price will be 3.9 times the wave (3) price and 14.2 times the possible wave (4) bottom price of a few days ago.
The second reason 11/10/21 was not the top to this Bitcoin bull market is from the CBBI (Colin Talks Bitcoin Bull Index) developed by Colin and Kamal Monicz (Polish software programmer) two years ago. This Index has been back tested to include all dates since 6/28/11. 6/28/11 the Confidence level that the top was in was 79; 20 days earlier on 6/8/11 BTC did its first bull market top at $31.90. It can be surmised that the CBBI would have been 95-100 if back tested to that date. CBBI level for the 1st bear market low on 11/18/11 was 9. CBBI levels for the Elliot Waves of the 2nd BTC bull market were: (1) 1/8/12 36; (2) 1/31/12 32; (3) 4/10/13 92; (4) 7/6/13 52; (5) 11/30/13 100. The 2nd BTC bear market low on 1/14/15 the CBBI level was 2. CBBI levels for the Elliot Waves of the 3rd BTC bull market were: (1) 11/4/15 26; (2) 1/16/16 25; (3) 6/12/17 68; (4) 7/6/13 56; (5) 12/17/17 100. The CBBI level for the 3rd bear market low on 12/15/18 was 3. CBBI levels for the Elliot Waves of this 4th Bitcoin bull market are: (1) 6/26/19 48; (2) 3/13/20 13; (3) 4/14/21 77; A 6/22/21 49; B 11/10/21 59 (thus could not possibly be the BTC bull market top since you should expect a confidence top level of 95-100), (4) C 6/18/22 possible bottom at $17567 at 12 confidence level. I am expecting wave (5) to end 11/30/23 (see reason in comment above) near $340,000 (see reason in comment above). and I expect the CBBI confidence level to be 95-100.
The third reason 11/10/21 was not the top to this Bitcoin bull market is from the duration of BTC bull markets which I have explained in detail before and will repeat here. First bull market was 7/18/10 to 6/8/11 or 325 days. Second bull market was from 11/18/11 to 11/30/13 or 743 days, longer than the first bull market. The third BTC bull market was from 1/14/15 to 12/17/17 or 1068 days, exactly the sum of the durations of the first two BTC bull markets (325 days + 743 days = 1068 days). This is a Fibonacci number sequence which I discovered a few weeks ago to the day for the first 3 BTC bull markets. I am expecting this 4th bull market which started 12/15/18 to last the duration of the 2nd and 3rd bull markets or 743 days + 1068 days = 1811 days from 12/15/18 or 11/30/23 exactly to the day. The $69000 top on 11/10/21 was only 1059 days from 12/15/18, not even as long as the third BTC bull market which was 1068 days. Thus from my reasoning here that the markets are LENGTHENING then 11/10/21 could not possibly have been the top to this Bitcoin bull market.
The fourth reason 11/10/21 was not the top to this Bitcoin bull market is from the Bitcoin log growth curves indicator developed by Cole Garner on Trading View several years ago. The top of the curves or 10th curve was hit at the top to each BTC bull market ending on 6/8/11 at $31.90, 11/30/13 at $1177.19, and 12/17/17 at $19764.51 (BLX prices). At the top of Elliot Wave (3) on 4/14/21 at $64899 (Coinbase price), the BTC price did not even hit the 7th curve. At the top of minor wave B of intermediate wave (4) on 11/10/21 at $69000, the BTC price did not hit even the 6th log growth curve so $69000 could not possibly have been the top. Since the bottom of the curves have been violated twice now at wave (2) on 3/13/20 at $3858 (bottom of curves was twice that price) and at the possible wave (4) bottom on 6/18/22 at $17567 (bottom of curves was once again twice the $17567 price), it is possible Bitcoin will NOT hit the top of the BTC log growth curves on 11/30/23. I think the date is more important than the price. Cole's indicator could be diverting from his original projection and the top might not be hit. However, I believe at least the 7th curve should be hit on 11/30/23 or $220,000. If it hits the top of the curves on 11/30/23 it should hit $340,000. I will be ready to exit at least BTC and LTC positions on 11/30/23 regardless of what the price is. ETH and alt positions I'm expecting to top 2-3 weeks later than BTC and LTC like the last BTC bull market which ended 12/17/17 but didn't end for ETH until 1/8/18 at $1420 or 22 days later than BTC. Most of the alts back then also ended either the end of Dec 2017 or in Jan 2018.
The fifth reason 11/10/21 was not the top to this Bitcoin bull market is from my expectation that the power law of 10 would once again be reached in price in this bull market. 1st bull market: (0) 7/18/10 6 cents at beginning of trade: 1 cent; (1) 11/6/10 49 cents: 10 cents (power of ten achieved)/ (3) 5/14/11 $8.85: $1 (power of ten achieved); (5) 6/8/11 $31.90: $10 (power of ten achieved). 2nd BTC bull market: (3) 4/10/13 $268.67: $100 (power of ten achieved); (5) 11/30/13 $1177.19: $1000 (power of ten achieved). 3rd BTC bull market: (5) 12/17/17 $19764.51: $10000 (power of ten achieved). This 4th BTC bull market I expected the power of ten to be achieved again with a minimum BTC price of $100,000. Since on 11/10/21 BTC only reached $69000 with most expecting a price > $100,000 to be achieved by the end of 2021 to early 2022, then I suspect wave (5) to this bull market will achieve the power of ten minimum price of $100,000 in 2023 and the top will come 11/30/23 between $220K to $340K.
The sixth reason 11/10/21 was not the top to this Bitcoin bull market is that the first three BTC bull markets ended in a parabolic 5th Elliot wave top that was at least 3.6 times the price of the 3rd intermediate corrective wave price and also at least 5.7 times or more the price of the wave (4) bottom price. 1st Bull market: (3) $8.85 (4) $5.59 (5) $31.90 (3.6 times and 5.7 times the wave (3) and (4) prices, respectively. 2nd BTC bull market: (3) $268.67 (4) $65.00 (5) $1177.19 (4.4 times and 18.1 times the wave (3) and (4) prices, respectively. 3rd BTC bull market: (3) $2984.90 (4) $1814.76 (5) $19764.51 (6.6 times and 10.9 times the wave (3) and (4) prices, respectively. This 4th BTC bull market: (3) $64899 A $28800 B $69000 (4) C possible bottom at $17567. If $69000 was the wave (5) top then it was only 1.06 times the wave (3) price and only 3.9 times the possible wave (4) bottom price. This is not consistent with the previous 3 Bitcoin bull markets, thus $69000 was NOT a wave (5) top of bull market price as some speculate. Instead wave (5) is coming and if BTC reaches at least $250,000 as I expect by 11/30/23 for a wave (5) price, then that price will be 3.9 times the wave (3) price and 14.2 times the possible wave (4) bottom price of a few days ago.
Comment:
meant 3rd intermediate BULL or motive wave in the last paragraph