The Bitcoin Danger Zone

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
296 3 3
I've been waiting to post for something to actually happen and it has. Bitcoin             has finally consolidated its way down to the major Daily Support of 611 but I am *NOT* a buyer here. This level, while strong on the Daily, is not backed up by anything on the higher timeframes and all the lower timeframe are trending decidedly bearish . It's still a falling knife at this point.

Now that we are here though price is beginning to shape itself into a story of what is to come. Should we break below this support price is not yet a high probability bearish play unless we get into the "Danger Zone" I've drawn. This zone represents the passage of time and passing of lows in such a way as to tip the market over into a new Daily bearish trend . Such a trend, if gets into this new price zone around mid-August, would probably break the Daily low of 555 set back on the 6/23 dip.

Bitcoin             is still in a long term Weekly bullish trend which means the resistance to beat is 672 if the trend of the year is to continue to the upside. Until either one of these criteria happen I would not be looking at long positions.
Hello norok. Question: Because of the Bitfinex hack nobody will ever know now how Bitcoin price would have played out over normal circumstances. But as you know, news of the hack forcefully pushed price way down past $555. It bounced back up to $540 and seems to be hovering there for now. So that price is reached much sooner than expected. How does one factor this in? Is this a buy? What then to make about the rest of August and the bearish trend that was there just before the hack? Thanks.
norok TroglodyteHomunculus
Everything has changed. If Bitfinex were to open where Bitstamp is right now, about 536, getting to that low that fast is NOT a buying opportunity. What I posted was the 'setup' of a bearish trend. The movement of price to these levels this quickly is the confirmation.

Once Bitfinex opens we'll see what is going to happen. Bitcoin is not "dead" and won't be hitting single digits. However, 475 and 372 are the next supports on the Weekly. I'll update my forecast when trading re-opens. Bear in mind I'll likely be waiting 2-3 weeks to place any trade while the charts setup following this event.
Thank you, Norok. My thoughts go in that direction as well, and your word here helps confirm it. I look forward to your forecasts.
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