Looking nice, yet Bulls may need a shoulder.

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Bulls struggle to overcome the identified resistance box, whose upper bound is around the 10350$ mark ( close to limit of Weekly BB as well ).
A dip in the 9100-8400 $ short term support range may prove healthy and allow for an inverted Head & Shoulders targeting 14.000$ area within a few weeks.

This is a follow-up to:

Scenario: we have 4 rising MAs ( 20/50/200/200 W ) and price above *all of them*. CMF looks healthy.
That's a bullish medium term scenario and i wouldn't be concerned as long as price keeps over them.

Lower bound of support area is strengthened MA20/W + MA50/W (both rising) around 8450$ mark.
That area should be considerered "elastic" support, it may allow for pronounced intraweek dips, but shouldn't be broken on a weekly close or current uprend scenario would be put at risk.

A look to a "clean" weekly chart of the last 5 years, showing 20/50/100/200 MAs:

Looking back at 2016/2017 "bubble" see how price managed to keep over MA20/W (RED) and MA50/W (blue), except for a few outliers.
That would be the most desirable outcome for bulls.

From now onwards "fuel" (=high volume ) is crucial for the "rocket" to successfully ignite.
We'll see.
Comment: MA20/W and MA50/W support area is now slightly above 8500$ mark.
Price action still range bound within the 9600 -10350$ resistance "box".

Awaiting a strong breakout.
Comment: Buy orders awaiting in support area.
Hopefully part of them will be filled.
Trade active: Right on edge, first order filled @9075$

Comment: Looking forward to some more accumulation, we'll see
Comment: So six days later we're down 500+ $ and into support, right ?

Good, accumulating another little bit here, just below 9000$.

Now let's see whether FIB 0.382 holds, as price may ignite a rebound at any moment, goven the state of low TF oscillators.

In that case mind the volume.
Comment: Give me 8855$ and for today i'm fine with that :)
Comment: Thanks, BItcoin!
Comment: Aftermath: yes, that's a pretty strong move down.

And yes, it was well expected, as a move down there was the idea of this post.

That saidm, the correction down today was quite quick and deep, for a single leg down. So unless a V shaped correction can be achieved, the chance of some sensible sub 8500$ intraweek dip is not negligible.

Volume an PA within next 24-36 hours may shed some further light on the outcome.

For now this is the overall scenario i was loooking to play since last week,hence i'll stick to the plan, meaning increasing accumulation till around the 8500$ mark, which is not that far as we got close to 8600$ already right today.

Have a nice evening.
Comment: Sidenote: the purple line you see on chart shows my "expected" extension of today leg down, sort of a BC leg following the AB from last high.

Actual BC length is longer than AB length, this suggests some caution.
Comment: 8520$.
Right there, at base of support box and clnfluence of MA20/W and MA50/W.
That's a critical level and elastic support.

Remember that 20/W is also neutral line on weekly BB, defining short term trend.

Hopefully this area will hold on weekly close, in order to act as a spring on price.
Intraweek dips, even severe, may happen.
Comment: Bulls need to recover at very least 9260$ +.
Brears stay strongly in charge below that level.

It's tricky, as there's a further risk of H&S given the depth of this move down.

Anyway, focus on weekly close.
Comment: (Short term)

A fragile channel to top of support area.
May develop into a bearish flag, so pay attention.

Comment: ... and remember CME futures monthy expiration is tomorrow.
Comment: Channel failure.
Comment: I really how it won't happen, but wouldn't be surprised by a sudden spike down towards the 8200-8000$ mark.

Anyway, eyes on weekly close.
Comment: (Short time)

For now we have some seeemingly bullish divergences visible up to 6H TF.
They may apply as long as price holds -over- recent low ( or worst case 8200$ ).

We'll see.
Comment: Price still weak, yet bullish divergences are now showing up to 12H TF.
Obviously those would be almost invalidated by a breakout of 8200$.

A little bit of speculation: i feel time is likely to work against bears, so i think they have about 24/48H to try pushing down price towards 8200-8000$ mark ( worst case to FIB 0.618 ).

Anyway, probabilistically a strong bounce should not be that far given the state of low TF oscillators, so i think a "bear trap" would not a negligible option at the moment.

Weekly close will probably tell more.
Comment: Bears failed to push price under MA20/W and MA50/W on weekly close.
That's good news and no surprise.

A new week just started, let's see the outcome.

There's a fragile support showing up, it may work as an actual "exit" route out of the blue box. In order to achieve that bulls should try to recover the very first meaningful level, 8800+ $.

Comment: No surprise, perfect close just aboce MA20/W and MA50/W.

Price already moved to the 0.382 mark.
From there up to 9100$ area we should assume resistance.

Bulls should try to breakout the blue box, as ranging there is risky.

Remember to set a TP or SL, you should be over break even already ...
Comment: This is the first important test for bulls.
Comment: Caution.
Comment: Here we go, climbing to resistance as expected.
Hopefully bulls will breakout the box or we'll have some problems later.
Comment: (Short term)

Bulls seemingly losing steam.
Slight bearish diovergences on 6H

Unless red resistance is taken out, A test of short will be likely.

Careful under 8900$ or whether support fails as price may slide to lower (candidate) support. Protect your open positions.
Comment: "A test of short TERM SUPPORT will be likely." ... sorry for typos
Comment: Short term support reached and being put under pressure.

Comment: (Short term)

Short term support broken ( should be deouble-checked on daily close though ).
Pretty undecisive move by bears so far, on uninpressive volume. Maybe they're just looking for a ABC ... a mere pullback to ex-support around the 9000$ mark wouldsomewhat fit this scenario .

Anyway, short term bias stay bearish unless bulls fully recover above support.
Closest support is little above the 8700$ mark and stronger support in the 8600-8500$ area ( MA20/W, MA50/W). See also second blue candidate support.

Play your game, but play its safely.
Remember that BTC and even more ETH are on the razor's edge here.
Comment: V ?
Comment: Straight to KEY support.
A V recovery from here is needed or bad times ahead.

The original idea proposed in this post ( inverted H&S ) is still valid, but the uber-bullish scanario ( meaning a reversal over MA20 / MA50 ) is gone.
Comment: Seems i'm not alone on this ...

Comment: Anyway, no real glory in being first unless you're right ;)

Hence let's see the outcome, critical moment.
Comment: And i wasn't right at about the inverted H&S.

Long term support breakout and straight down to MA200/W, alla wihin hours.
May i say CRAP ? God bless the stop losses ( despite the slippage ).
Comment: Instead i was spot on about forecasting "bad times" in case of no recovery from above support ...

Pretty bad move and support not much far.
Comment: Bad, bad, bad ...

Bulls should try something now or it will be worse.
The only possible upwards pattern i can see for now is a small inverse H&S, but that's a shot in the dark!

Comment: Important havig avoided a descending triangle.

Come on, a decent weekly is close needed.
Comment: Having done that, this is next challenge:

Good luck and be careful.
Comment: Basically we'd hope in a pennant/flag in order to recover 7000$+ area.
Possible, yet it depends on volume and 5800$ being taken soon.

We'll see.
Comment: If you wonder, that's the plan:

Mind that's just a HYPHOTESIS, gentlemen.
Don't take any risks unless you're comfortable using stops.


sorry, Vhat do you mean?
+1 Reply
Hi ft-73! Do you think 200Ma should be intact in weekly close or Its already broken? Its so unrational
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