Time has come for bulls to show some strength. Weekly looks good: CMF recovey, MACD crossover, price over all MAs ( including MA20, middle of BB ).
Short term possibly en-route for upper bound of weekly Bollinger Bands.
Monthly TF may give confirmation of a morning star within few days.
Yet fuel ( =volume ) is needed.
No hurry, we'll see.
NOTE: The chart is an elaboration and update of what i've already proposed here, back in september:
Short term possibly en-route for upper bound of weekly Bollinger Bands.
Monthly TF may give confirmation of a morning star within few days.
Yet fuel ( =volume ) is needed.
No hurry, we'll see.
NOTE: The chart is an elaboration and update of what i've already proposed here, back in september:
Comment:
Fuel needed!
Come on bulls.
Let's avoid another November 11th here, please.
Come on bulls.
Let's avoid another November 11th here, please.
Comment:
Nice.
En route. Needs more volume though.
En route. Needs more volume though.
Comment:
Awaiting test of upper bound of weekly BB.
Comment:
mind a broadening wedge.
mind a broadening wedge.
Comment:
Tomorrow we have monthly close, expiration.
Don't forget to set a TP as a warranty. some volatility expected.
Don't forget to set a TP as a warranty. some volatility expected.
Comment:
We got some volatility alrady and it's not over.
Mind the fact there are still important hurdles ahead.
Starting tomorrow, with futures and monthly close.
The single most important thing now is to achieve a monthly close as good as possible tomorrow. That's what matters.
Don't forget to set your TPs, NEVER blindly trust a volatile market.
Markets may bite hard.
Mind the fact there are still important hurdles ahead.
Starting tomorrow, with futures and monthly close.
The single most important thing now is to achieve a monthly close as good as possible tomorrow. That's what matters.
Don't forget to set your TPs, NEVER blindly trust a volatile market.
Markets may bite hard.
Comment:
I've still have a margin Long open, since 6887$.
TP in trailing.
TP in trailing.
Comment:
Meanwhile price is approaching the upper bound of weekly BB.
It will shake hard from here
It will shake hard from here
Comment:
Awaiting monthly close, so far is looking good.
Next i would like to seee weekly CMF breaking ZERO on weekly close.
Next i would like to seee weekly CMF breaking ZERO on weekly close.
Comment:
Comment:
Weekly MACD looks healthy.
We'll see next few weeks.
We'll see next few weeks.
Comment:
Hopefully up from here, or after consolidation through an inverted H&S.
No hurry.
No hurry.
Comment:
(Short Term)
Price left its broadening ascending wedge and is forming a rough diamond.
Volume is slowing down.
It may be a local diamond top or a half staff.
- In the former case look at support ( blue ).
- In the latter pricely like to rally towards upper bound off Weekly BB, near the 10000$ mark.
Look for a breakout of diamond on volume to guess next step.
Price left its broadening ascending wedge and is forming a rough diamond.
Volume is slowing down.
It may be a local diamond top or a half staff.
- In the former case look at support ( blue ).
- In the latter pricely like to rally towards upper bound off Weekly BB, near the 10000$ mark.
Look for a breakout of diamond on volume to guess next step.
Comment:
As usual in these cases, tighten you TP and await market to make its move.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Take profit hit, 50% liquidated at 9307$.
Half position still running
Half position still running
Comment:
Very tricky, after a clear break down price managed to pull back to previous short term support.
Use a lot of caution.
Use a lot of caution.
Comment:
I'd rate this a bearish move, unless price manages to fully recover OVER that support.
Comment:
Meanwhile MA100/W (green) starts flattening, which is good.
Comment:
If bulls fail to pierce through resistance ( see that sparse rising wedge ) an inverted head and shulders would be a viable option to break through.
Comment:
In the case of a deep retrace there's strong support around the 8000$ mark ( MA20/W and MA50/W area ). I wouldn't be concerned unless that area is broken on a weekly close.
Comment:
Awaiting test of 9100/9000$ area.
Comment:
Awaiting test of 9100/9000$ area.
Comment:
9096$ static level reached.
Likely a test of support, which incidentally is the lower bound of the rising wedge.
Awaiting the outcome.
Likely a test of support, which incidentally is the lower bound of the rising wedge.
Awaiting the outcome.
Comment:
9000/9100$ minor support was more than enough for a rebound.
Yet bulls should now break through (and do it soon).
Never challenge a rising wedge more than twice or it may hurt ...
Yet bulls should now break through (and do it soon).
Never challenge a rising wedge more than twice or it may hurt ...
Comment:
On the opening post i supposed a price movement towards the upper bound of weekly BB. Well, that's it:
Now price is clearly at strong resistance and bulls should demonstrate to have enough strength to push through BBs-and- invalidate that rising wedge.
*IF* they succeed and achieve a weekly close OVER BB, well that would be very bullish ...
Anyway, that's definetely NOT an easy task, we'll see.
Now price is clearly at strong resistance and bulls should demonstrate to have enough strength to push through BBs-and- invalidate that rising wedge.
*IF* they succeed and achieve a weekly close OVER BB, well that would be very bullish ...
Anyway, that's definetely NOT an easy task, we'll see.
Trade closed manually:
Taking profit on 50% of trade in order to mitigate risk.
Price was open at 6887$, +42%.
Price was open at 6887$, +42%.
Comment:
Also the second milestone shown in the opening post ( 10350$ ) wa reached.
Good stuff.
Looking forward to weekly close, in order to evaluate whether to close the remaining part of the trade ( this unless TP is reached before ).
Good stuff.
Looking forward to weekly close, in order to evaluate whether to close the remaining part of the trade ( this unless TP is reached before ).
Comment:
Moreover, MA100 did flatten as expected.
-So far- we have a very bullish setup with 4 rising Mas ( 20,50,100,200 ), all in the right order and price over it. Good support is around 8400$ area.
No hurry ( don't care about short term ), interesting times ahead.
-So far- we have a very bullish setup with 4 rising Mas ( 20,50,100,200 ), all in the right order and price over it. Good support is around 8400$ area.
No hurry ( don't care about short term ), interesting times ahead.
Comment:
By the way, last timei've seen a similar weekly setup was back in June 2016, more than 3 years ago.
Comment:
(Short term)
Watch it.
Don't take any more risk than strictly needed here.
Protect any open long position.
Let market make first move.
Watch it.
Don't take any more risk than strictly needed here.
Protect any open long position.
Let market make first move.
Comment:
At decision point.
Comment:
Awaiting weekly close, top of BB.
Comment:
A retrace is likely.
Yet a close well over BB would be interesting ( loock back at April 2019 for instance ) and that should be checked.
Yet a close well over BB would be interesting ( loock back at April 2019 for instance ) and that should be checked.
Comment:
on Feb 3rd i painted a resistance box, whose upper bound was 10350$ area:
Which incidentally was the second target marked on my opening chart.
As of today Bitcoin basically moved as expected and it still struggles to break that limit an paint next chapter. No surprise.
Here's an updated scenario, with a revised candidate support.
A retrace is slightly more likely frome here and in the case the 9000-8500$ area may be a perfect soft landing spot for bulls.
anyway bulls still have some chances to break through along WE, hence i'll sit and wait for weekly close, after having considerably tightened my Take tprofit.
Take it easy, enjoy.
Which incidentally was the second target marked on my opening chart.
As of today Bitcoin basically moved as expected and it still struggles to break that limit an paint next chapter. No surprise.
Here's an updated scenario, with a revised candidate support.
A retrace is slightly more likely frome here and in the case the 9000-8500$ area may be a perfect soft landing spot for bulls.
anyway bulls still have some chances to break through along WE, hence i'll sit and wait for weekly close, after having considerably tightened my Take tprofit.
Take it easy, enjoy.
Trade closed: target reached:
Take profit at 10087$
Comment:
Ok le'ts see.
Bump or down to support.
Bump or down to support.
Comment:
Possible a speculative buy close to edge of channel, as long as you want ro risk a few % points. Mandatory SL below edge.
Comment:
(very short term)
Comment:
Boring.
Well, i've just got a buy-back order filled at 9680$ this morning.
Tightened stop as there's still alot of uncertainty.
Price is moving on the edge of resistance box, if bulls show some sign of reaction here it may end with some further consolidation withing the box.
Well, i've just got a buy-back order filled at 9680$ this morning.
Tightened stop as there's still alot of uncertainty.
Price is moving on the edge of resistance box, if bulls show some sign of reaction here it may end with some further consolidation withing the box.
Trade active:
Tightened SL
Comment:
Mind the fact price is surfing on the edge:
Speculative trade here, high risk.
Speculative trade here, high risk.
Comment:
Why right here ?
A few low TF divergences:
Again, high risk trade.
Mandatory SL.
A few low TF divergences:
Again, high risk trade.
Mandatory SL.
Comment:
Unsurprisingly ...
bounce just a few dollars off the SL.
Nice.
bounce just a few dollars off the SL.
Nice.
Comment:
Now putting SL in break even, for a comfortable ride.
Comment:
Price needs to breakout 10100$ in order to exclude a dead cat bounce.
Comment:
Ranging within the box.
Comment:
For now we got a pullback to breviuous support ( dotted blue ).
Awaiting further movements, but meanwhile DON'T forget to protect your open position with a TP, we're NOT ut of the woods at all yet.
Remember price is still within a resistance zone.
Awaiting further movements, but meanwhile DON'T forget to protect your open position with a TP, we're NOT ut of the woods at all yet.
Remember price is still within a resistance zone.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Take profit matched
Comment:
To be fair i would like to see price move lower, into support area.
It would be healthy for Bulls, given current volume.
The more time they struggle within resistance area the weaker they become.
The price action we've witnessed along the last 2 weeks was undecisive, basically ranged.
A bath into the liquidity bull would hopefully prove healthier for bulls.
It would be healthy for Bulls, given current volume.
The more time they struggle within resistance area the weaker they become.
The price action we've witnessed along the last 2 weeks was undecisive, basically ranged.
A bath into the liquidity bull would hopefully prove healthier for bulls.
Comment:
In case of a move down i'll position myself within the 8400-9100$ represented above on chart, since end of january.
The lower bound is MA20/W + MA50/W area and that's supposed to hold on weekly close for the sake of current uptrend. Mind the fact key is weekly CLOSE, so ignore intra-week spikes.
The lower bound is MA20/W + MA50/W area and that's supposed to hold on weekly close for the sake of current uptrend. Mind the fact key is weekly CLOSE, so ignore intra-week spikes.
Comment:
This starts making sense now ;)
Parabolic SAR on 2W is pretty continuous, hence it would be pretty interesting.
We'll see.